paolo2143

Apparently the turnout in Perthshire North is over 70% as well. This could either bode well or bad for SNP/Indy. are all the extra voters Unionists or are they Indy voters. Perhaps we will see differences in different areas as well.

What is worrying me is thaetthe betting 7 market odds on Dumbarton, Aberdeen West, Eastwood , East Lothian, Ayr, Dumfriesshire , Edinburgh South and Caithness & Sutherland have all been moving away from SNP and towards one of the Unionist parties over last 72 hours. If that is the case we can definitely say goodbye to SNP majority and we need to hope the Greens do really well on List vote to strengthen Pro Indy majority. As many have said before it is madness to vote SNP on list in West of Scotland, Lothian & Glasgow areas as the only way to go is Greens on list. SNP both votes seems good idea in South of Scotland and Highlands as that is where they will need to pick up list MSP's if they lose a lot of the tightly contested constituency seats.

Sadly from all the betting markets over last few days Jackie Ballie is clear favourite to win Dumbarton now, Indeed it looks as though all the key seats Aberdeen West, Ayr, East Lothian, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire & Dumbarton are now too close too call and have apparently been moving in wrong direction. If the SNP don't gain at least 2 of them i cannot see them getting majority. Personally an SNP majority would be superb but right now i would take 63/64 SNP and 9 Green MSP's with a couple of Alba's thrown in. The main thing is we must have Pro Indy majority of some kind.

For weeks I like many other Pro Indy voters have been urging that "YES" voters give their list vote to the Greens in West of Scotland, Lothian, Mid Scotland & Fife as in those three areas in particular they can pick up a lot of Green Pro Indy MSP's if they get around 9-10% on list. However i think it is equally important that Green voters give their constituency vote to SNP in the following areas; Dumbarton, Aberdeenshire West, Edinburgh Southern, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, East Lothian, Ayr and Galloway & West Dumfries. I have been watching the polling, election markets and bookies odds over last 3 weeks and in all of those areas there as been a move away from SNP towards either Labour or Tories in those key target seats. About 12 days ago the SNP were favourite to pick up at least 7 of them according to those sites, now every seat is on a knife edge and they look like definitely losing Edinburgh Southern, Dumbarton & Eastwood according to those sites. I think Green and SNP voters need to help each other out. I personally hope Greens vote for SNP in those constituency seats and that SNP voters vote tactically for Greens on the list in central Scotland. There does appear to be indicators that some of The Unionists are choosing to vote tactically even if it means some Labour voters voting Tory or visa versa.

For a long time now i have been convinced the SNP will get between 62-66 seats so i am going to split difference SNP 64, Greens 7, ALBA 1, Labour 24 , Tories 28 , LD's 5. I think SNP will get around 47.8% of constituency vote and around 38.9 % on List. I think the Greens will get around 8.9% on List vote and ALBA about 2.8% although they might get over 5% in North East region.

I am not convinced that one relatively good showing in a debate will make that many change their mind. He had nothing to lose and the FM was always going to be in the firing line from the other parties as the incumbent FM . Nicola might not have been at her best but she was still very solid and when you are in front that is all you really need to do. Look at the G.E debates in 2015 and 19 in both of them the opposition parties did quite well. Snap polls showed Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn had actually performed pretty well and David Cameron and Boris had been unspectacular It didn't matter as the % share of vote barely moved. If you are way ahead you just need to be steady in these debates. Even in 2010 when Nick Clegg smashed the first debate and dis well in other two, in the end the LD's % share of vote on election day was only a fraction higher than it had been prior to debates, although they did benefit strongly from tactical voting though.

I agree on your take on Johnson he is an opportunist. However while he will certainly so NO to any Indy Ref even if the SNP win a majority, i still think in long term it is crucial that they do and that support for Indy can stay above 50%. The longer and more often he says No that will alienate even more Scottish voters, especially if expected England under his watch lurches more to the right and Brexit issues become more noticeable. No one likes being told by someone else what they can and cannot have especially if that is what they have democratically chosen, we saw that with Brexit. We may have to wait but in the meantime resentment towards Westminster will build and hopefully will Indy vote over next few years.

I think there was evidence ever since BoJo became PM and Brexit that support for Indy averaged over 50% for a year. I have always said that to win a referendum you really need to have it averaging close to 55% for a good few months as you know that the Unionist propaganda machine will launch project fear to unfathomable levels during another Indy Ref,, we will be told that the world as we know it will cease to exist if the unthinkable happens. Unlike Brexit where 80% of right wing press was slavering for it like rabid dogs and TV media were pretty neutral, we will have exact opposite as 90% of press will be savaging it and we cannot even rely on neutrality from TV media. I think it actually was quite an achievement for YES to have got 45% last time with all that against them, if it had been like that with Brexit it would never have passed. At least this time we cannot be told the lie of stay with UK to save your place in EU, nor will we believe Better Together when they come with their pish about the Union working for Scotland and a lot of YES voters will be more hardened to Project Fear.

On looking at last elections I think it is definitely good to go SNP on both votes in South of Scotland, might be the case in Edinburgh and i think the Highlands and North East as well. I would say in West of Scotland, Glasgow & mid lothian areas it probably makes more sense to go Greens on list. Hope i am allowed to post this link. The second table under each region gives you total list MSP's and List vote shares of each party http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Scottish_Parliament_election

Douglas Ross has not resigned as an MP and is trying to keep his options open as well just in case he does not get a seat in Scottish Parliament. I agree both he and Kenny Macaskill should not have that luxury.

From looking at things it would appear that if you are i say Lothian, West of Scotland, Glasgow & Fife the Greens are best option on List as i think SNP failed to get a single lsit MSP in any of those areas despite polling at about 42% or more in most of those areas. The Greens picked up 5 list MSP's in those areas averaging less than 7% of vote. That is why i always vote Green on List in my area. I think voting SNP both votes works really well in say North East, Highlands and South of Scotland and possibly Edinburgh. I wouldn't mind if Alba picks up couple of MSP's in Perth or say Highlands

Let's just see what happens. My hunch is that Alba will attract mainly all the YES voters who said they were planning to abstain in this election. I do think they will pick up about 3-4% of SNP list votes and maybe small number of Greens. That in itself might balance things out. I am actually not convinced it will change the final number or pro or anti Indy majority that much but i would love to be proved wrong if it means more Pro Indy MSP's.

The Tory party is always the answer when it comes to "the most perverts"

Yeah but they are not voting for Salmond or Alba. They can just continue to vote SNP/Green with no worry. As for coalitions we all know the SNP & Greens would form one anyway.

Let's be honest anyone who is opposed to Indy is already going to vote for one of he opposition parties probably Tory so i don't think it will make much difference. Unionists already know that the SNP would form a Pro Indy pact with Greens anyway

I will be doing as i have done in 2011 and 2016 and that is voting SNP on the constituency vote and Greens on List. As i live in central belt a list vote for the Greens is more beneficial in terms of returning an extra Pro Indy MSP

I am not sure a lot of people will agree with you. There is no doubt that he is a brilliant politician and puts most recent UK PM's to shame as he is miles ahead of them. But he always has come across as a bit smug and over bearing, and long before these allegations surfaced or his court case, where he was acquitted, most women i know couldn't stand him.

Just managed to drive a few foaming at the mouth Yoons even wilder on Twitter. They were attacking our "evil" FM for daring to give the nurses a decent pay rise and that it was just showboating. I pointed out that their beloved UK Tory Govt managed to find £120 Million for festival of Brexit, which at least half the Country and most of Scotland don't want. I also noted that the UK Tory Govt had magically found a £Billion to bribe the DUP in 2017 to help really get Brexit process flowing, only for BoJo to later stab them in back, they went into meltdown lol

lol What i did notice big Eck did was say he now wanted to get on with election and focus on issues like independence, on that we can agree.

I actually think Andy Wightman is one of the few committee members to come out of this looking not bad. He kept quiet throughout entire process and was not overtly taking sides. I think today him abstaining made sense from the point of view of his views and that he felt other members of committee had invalidated a lot of its findings by their behaviour.

superb lol

I suspect that it may find she unintentionally broke the code and if that is case the Tories will scream & scream but i think she can survive that. It all depends on how he words it but if he says any breach was not deliberate she will be fine i think.

Nicola Sturgeon like all strong leaders didn't get where she is without being a shrewd and clever operator. If you think of the likes of Thatcher, Blair, Salmond & even Boris Johnson they all knew how to read the voters most of the time and that is why they were successful. Right now i believe Nicola will have been thinking of what strategy to adopt depending on outcome of James Hamilton report. As long as she is not found to have broken the code knowingly/deliberately i suspect she is safe and that when it comes to voting a lot of the public who are YES voters will be stick by her & the party. However she will also have been thinking of what to do in the event that James Hamilton finds against her. I believe in those circumstances she will come out and declare she is going to resign. I also believe she is clever enough to portray this in a positive way. She could say while she still believes she acted in good faith she accepts James Hamilton's findings and unlike the Tories she takes the Ministerial code seriously and therefore will stand down. She could also say that even although she is resigning as FM, she will continue to try & protect Scotland from Covid until the elections are over and new FM in place. The above serves a twofold purpose. It will weaken the Tory attacks on her being a liar & charlatan as she will have been seen to do the honorable thing unlike Ms Patel. Dominic Cummings or PM. this also makes Douglas Ross even more of a hypocrite if he continues to try and attack her character. Secondly by continuing to put Covid at top of her agenda even though she has resigned i suspect that will play well with Scottish public, a lot of whom are sympathetic to her situation even if they don't fully believe her. I suspect she is giving this a lot of thought and it is the way i would go. Hopefully it won't be needed as she will still be FM at when elections commence as she is light years ahead of any alternative FM right now.

http://independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liverpool-city-council-government-jenrick-corruption-b1820143.html This Govt's attempt to discredit, smear, and then use as an excuse to take control, of any Region or Nation in UK that strongly opposes them should set alarm bells ringing. Especially in Scotland. Just like Scotland, Liverpool is a region that strongly despises the Tories and lo and behold we have similar situation. We have also had Tory Ministers suggesting if you don't like Union Jacks shoved endlessly in your face at every interview/briefing, then perhaps you should think if UK is where you want to stay. http://joe.co.uk/news/tory-like-union-jack-or-leave-267252 We also have under the watch of the "Tory" appointed chairman of BBC Huw Edwards being ordered to remove tweet joking about having Welsh flag in his profile. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/huw-edwards-bbc-news-flag-twitter-b1820004.html So apparently in Boris Johnson's UK it is okay to hail Union Jack but not be proud of being Scottish, Welsh or Irish. Combine that with introduction of recent Police bill being forced through, and more of the right wing press becoming emboldened as the Tories push through policies that UKIP would be proud of, we are in dangerous times. I think not just Scotland but every region that opposes the current UK Tory Govt should be afraid of what is coming next.

The next few days are going to be pivotal for future of Nicola. I expect that the James Hamilton Report will land between Monday & Wednesday and that is the one that will decide her fate. There are 3 likely scenarios. !) Mr Hamilton finds there was Govt failings but that she did not breech the Ministerial code. 2) He finds that she did breech code but that in his view this was unintentional and not deliberate 3) He finds that she knowingly broke the Ministerial code on at least one occasion. If it is last option then she will definitely have to resign i feel as clinging on would not look good. If it is first option she is totally secure and can come out all guns blazing if the Tories continue to try and force NC vote. However i have a strong hunch it is going to be option 2 which is middle of the road. I do think that if Mr Hamilton makes it clear that any breech was unintentional & not deliberate in his view she is safe. I think if she comes out and aplogises for the unintentional breech most of her supporters will be forgiving and i think most voters except the rabid Unionists will accept an apology. Yes the Tory press /media & opposition parties will try and attack it, but if they go overboard on attacking her for an unintentional breech it might not be a good look for them with public, especially considering what other Politicians have got away with over last 2 years. So let's see what the week ahead brings, it will be interesting either way.