nate

The Germany game is and always was a damage limitation job but I fear a gubbing here. We’ll bounce back with a helter skelter 2-2 v Switzerland, and scrape a VAR assisted win v Hungary. Four points. Bring on Spain/Italy/Croatia. Yes, I’m heavily medicated.

You got any fixed odds tips for the weekend?

But what if the glass was half full… We cuff surprise pot 4 entrants Kazakhstan followed by a narrow win against pot 2 Albania. Remarkably, Scotland have now replicated the qualifiers by reaching the next stage WITH A GAME TO SPARE, against pot 1 France as it turns out. And being in the group that completes its fixtures last, we now know that finishing second is more advantageous than actually winning the group (easier R16 opponent). SC then puts out a weakened team against France with a view to losing and finishing 2nd, shoving Jacob Brown into the team for instance. Next up is plucky Iceland in R16 who have somehow emerged as the surprise entrant (there’s always one). Dawdle. It’s Switzerland in the Quarters - doing their usual of reaching the knock outs but going no further. Ditto dawdle. A semi against Holland looks a toughie, but true to form the Dutch squad Implodes in the days leading up to the match, bickering with the coach over tactics and half of them refuse to play. We’re then facing a team of diddies from Zvolle and Sparta Rotterdam. Cakewalk. It’s hosts Germany in the final. They’re over confidant…kleine Schottland…was is das? We hang on for a dour 0-0, a Wembley Euro 2020 affair, and it goes the distance. Greg Taylor scores the winning penalty in a 10-9 shootout. Aye I know…the men in white coats are already at my front door.

Point taken, but Bulgaria would still have qualified with 2 points even if it was 3 points for a win back then. I’m no mathematician but it seems to me there are several scenarios where 2 points gets you into R16… TEAM A 3 wins = 9 pts TEAM B 2 wins, 1 loss = 6pts TEAM C 1 draw,2 losses = 1pt TEAM D 1 draw, 2 losses = 1pt Or TEAM A 3 wins = 9pts TEAM B 1 win,1 draw,1 loss = 4pts TEAM C 2 draws,1 loss = 2 pts TEAM D 1 draw,2 losses = 1pt There might be other permutations, but for qualification with only 2 points it would require at least 3 of the 6 groups finishing with something like the above. Unlikely but not impossible.

If this plays out then Pot 4 will be tougher than pots 2 & 3. Must be the first time that’s happened at a Euros or WC you imagine

We’re prob wanting Ukraine put in same pathway as Poland/Wales if that’s at all possible. It would eliminate 2 of the stronger play off teams

Not pessimistic at all. it’s feet on the ground common sense, maybe the result of watching the last Euros when we delivered one of our worst ever tournament showings despite the benefit of two home matches. You might even say it’s a coin toss against every one of the 9 known teams in pots 2 & 4.. How good do people think we actually are? There are folk on here and elsewhere suggesting Italy is a good fit for us as a pot 4 oppo. That’s mental. Italy had the pre-tournament faves in their group as well as a toughie in Ukraine. Six of their club sides are in positions 1 or 2 in their respective groups re CL,NL etc ( yes some players are foreigners, but still) Historically, they are a very durable tournament side. It suits their mentality, it seems. They might not even have been the best team at the last Euros but they still won the thing. Some of this bring-on-Italy Wha’s Like Us shite reminds me of 1978. With our very best XI on the pitch and a wee bit of luck of the draw we can progress. But if 3 or 4 of those squad jobbers get a game in a group containing say France, Denmark and Italy, we’ve had it. Notpessimistic at all, 2426255

I should’ve qualified the original statement by adding …SCORED AGAINST THE REIGNING WORLD CHAMPIONS IN A COMPETITIVE MATCH (as opposed to diddy friendlies) Anya is one of only 9 unless I’ve missed someone out. The others are… LAW LENNOX MCCALLIOG COLLINS FERGUSON NAISMITH GOODWILLIE(!) McARTHUR My original off the cuff statement has unintentionally got the makings of a good pub question. Your mate gets a free pint for every correct answer, but buys you a pint for every one he doesn’t know. This could be a cheap night out for you cos I don’t think anyone would get more than a couple…big spread of years in there. If I’ve missed anyone let us know

Good post, but it’s worth pointing out that both Bulgaria and Uruguay have reached the knockout stages of a 24-team tournament (WC 86)with a miserly 2 points. It seems a bit ridiculous but that’s what you get with an expanded (I.e diluted) Euros where nearly 50% of the original entrants (discounting the absolute bottom feeders) qualify for the Finals, and a whopping two-thirds of these qualifiers make it to R16. We’ve never had a better chance to make it through, given this is essentially a kind of Euros Lite. Fans of nations with respectable qualification records who didn’t make it to Germany must be fuming (hello Ireland)

BELGIUM/ALBANIA/PATH C (prob GREECE OR GEORGIA) The bonkers thing here is that Pot 4 could very well end up being tougher than Pots 2 & 3. Pot 3 is already tougher than Pot 2 if FIFA rankings are to be believed. No Pot 2 team faced any of the so-called big five in their qualifiers…that’s why they’re in Pot 2 in the first place. We shouldn’t fear any of them.

You’re not suggesting a “bit of pace” was all that Anya possessed are you? He was a decent dribbler and crosser and chipped in with a few goals. Can’t be many Scots to have scored against the world champions either. Brown by contrast is one dimensional, if he actually has a dimension in the first place

Just about to watch Wales v Turkey on the free-to-air channel S4C ( a kind of Welsh ALBA affair). The game is also on Pay channel Viaplay. Turns out every single Wales Euro qualifier has been free to air on S4C, and yet no Scotland qualifiers were free-to-air. How come? HaS BBC Scotland been pretending that if a match is on Viaplay then it can’t possibly be shown on terrestrial, which is obviously not true? Or is their so-called commitment to the national team a sham cos they won’t fork out for the matches?

Jacob Brown is never an international level player, for us or anyone else. His scoring record is unconvincing…37 in 219 league apps according to wiki, mostly in the lower leagues too, up against carthorse defenders. You wouldn’t mind if he brought something else to the team, but he doesn’t. A “bit of pace” isn’t enough at international level. He looks out of his depth. He’s about as threatening as a kitten. It’s Shanks for me. Brown’s inclusion underlines just how threadbare our squad really is. Speaking of which, Tierney’s continued absenteeism is a big concern. Only 2 full 90 minutes for Scotland in competitive matches stretching all the way back to the beginning of the Nations League (about 14 games I calculate). Ankle, calf,groin,knee…he seems plagued with every kind of injury. How much we need a fit Tierney and Robbo beavering down that left flank come next summer. Fingers crossed.

Totally agree. Projection for Pot 2 if we’re not in it is AUSTRIA/TURKEY/ALBANIA/HUNGARY/DENMARK/ROMANIA OR SWITZERLAND. In a neutral venue with our best X1 on the pitch I would fancy our chances against all of them. Pot 3 projection IS US/CROATIA/HOLLAND/ITALY/SERBIA/SLOVAKIA OR SLOVENIA. I would fancy our chances a lot less against three of those sides. Obviously with games still to be played it might not turn out exactly like this, but these projections are the best available as things stand These Pot 2 imposters are only there because not a single one of them faced any of the 5 big hitters, the 5 pre-tournament favourites, in their qualifiers (unlike Holland, Italy and us) An easier group in Germany must be preferable to the short term kudos of making it into Pot 2. Shrewdo that he is, SC will play for a one-goal win tonight.

Just to clarify…if we beat Norway by 2 goals or more we are DEF Pot 2, regardless of what happens elsewhere? And if we fail to beat Norway by 2 goals or more we are def Pot 3, regardless of what happens elsewhere? is that the long and short of it?

Shall we all start condemning Scotland’s best comedian Jerry Sadowitz too? Some people don’t like his patter, others like me love it. Fair enuff. I’ve heard worse, or better if you like, than “Lizzie in a Box” at his shows. If paying punters at Hampden want to sing about dead parasites let them. The line in GSTQ/K - “rebellious Scots to crush” - is a provocation if ever there was one. The word “crush” in this context is a euphemism for “kill”. Shall we all get on our high horses and clamour for GSTK to be banned? Of course not. That would be petty. Sticks and stones… The English are the last lot who should be thin-skinned about terracing chants. Rule Britannia, one of their favourites, is essentially the glorification of war, imperialism, suppression, slavery and death. They play it every year at the Albert Hall too. It’ officially sanctioned. Should we ask them to ban it, claiming it upsets our tender little hearts? Sticks and stones… Maybe the Tartan Army might have to be renamed the Twee Army if all the moral guardians out there get their way

CHOU PAHROT CHAMPION DOUG VEITCH ARCHBISHOP KEBAB NYAH FEARTIES THE TREMENS

There’s an old expression along the lines of expectation being the mother of disappointment. The perceived negativity, twitchiness, doom-mongering you so colourfully allude to is a manifestation of this, but it’s actually extreme caution, not negativity. And I suspect it’s coming from older guys like me with long memories of too many disappointments (3 consecutive WC exits on goal difference ffs), whereas the younger cockier bucks on here have known nothing but comparatively digestible failure in their time. A lot of veteran TA are emotionally scarred because of this and that’s why the twitchiness is so prevalent, if seemingly OTT. It might even be a form of mental illness. Indeed my missus has suggested more than once I seek therapy. So much for a quiet night in watching a game of football, huh? PS Skybet have us at 80/1 to win the Euros,with Norway at…66/1! Go figure.

Skybet have Norway 66/1 to win Euro 2024. Scotland are 80/1. WTF?

Cheers. You have brightened my mood immeasurably. Germany here we come, then. Whatever, the Norway-Spain match is TV unmissable, particularly since it doesn’t clash with any of our fixtures. I guess we’re hoping for a draw here, tho I’ll still be investing a bob on the homesters at what should be pretty tempting odds. Your possession stats also brought a smile to my angst ridden chops. 17%? (Japan v Spain) There is something ridiculous, if not surreal, about this, even allowing for the tactical nous behind it. Somehow it just doesn’t seem fair. You wonder if 17% could even be surpassed, out there in Seville next month.

I agree. Norway beating Spain isn’t as unlikely as some are suggesting, given the probable group situation/mentality at the time. You have a home side throwing the kitchen sink at Spain knowing it’s win or out. And you have a Spain side with two easy matches still to come, ensuring them top spot whatever. Norway will be the more motivated on this occasion. This scenario is of course dependent on Spain beating us in Seville, which unfortunately I think is very probable. We had an outlandishly meagre 25% possession against them at Hampden, which might be some kind of record for a winning underdog at International level (anyone know if it actually is?). Expect similar stats in Seville. And Spain will certainly not be as complacent/arrogant this time around by changing 8 players from their previous match. If we get anything from this fixture it will be joyous surprise imo.

Me too mate. When the draw was made the game I was least looking forward to was Georgia away. We’ve got a 100% fail rate out there. Different players etc, but not an encouraging stat. I think it’s imperative we avoid a winner-takes-all final group game with Norway. My inner pessimist does not at all like that particular scenario of needing even a point in what would be an excruciating occasion, given our early sprint to the top of the group. We’ve seen too many defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory calamities over the years as it is. Let’s hope poster MarkoRaj is right and Spain kill off Norway and we can all relax in November.

Some weird shit happens when you’re sleeping, none weirder or more disturbing than the nightmare I’ve just woken from a few minutes ago, in which the Brahan Seer, Scotland’s most famous futurologist, got off some barmy Group A Euro predictions. Look away now if you don’t want the willies up ye… 1) Spain gub us next month, and with two piss easy matches to come later on v Cyprus and Georgia, ease up and lose in Oslo with a complacent half-arsed performance a few days later, knowing they will still top the group with 18 points 2)Norway tan Cyprus in their next match,putting them on 13 points ahead of their Hampden visit 3) Scotland v Norway. The big November showdown. It’s do or die. Unfortunately Norway “do” and we “die”. 0-2. Another Hampden anticlimax. It’ the Czech Rep all over again. It’ Ukraiane all over again. Our poor home record against Norway continues and we lurch into the pants-shitting lottery of the play-offs. is this scenario, this Euros Armageddon, even plausible? Or is the Brahan Seer talking his initials? Please reassure me it was all just a dream.

Are opponents in the NL play-off semis drawn at random, or based on NL results? UEFA currently rank the 4 Group B winners (in this order)…ISRAEL/BOSNIA/SERBIA/US. If it’s the latter then Israel here we come. A decent draw. It would also throw up a powder keg Bosnia v Serbia tie, which I was quite surprised to see isn’t one of UEFA’s “prohibited” matches. This may have to be played at a neutral venue. Maybe Iceland. Or Outer Mongolia. Maybe UEFA will deliberately keep these two apart, hoping one or both fail to make the final.

Getting laughed at by a bunch of Italian pensioners, while having a hungover breakfast in a cafe somewhere near Genoa, the day after we lost to Costa Rica in Italia 90 is well up the embarrassment list for me Losing to Costa Rica was no embarrassment. They were years ahead of us in technique and tactical nous. I was at this match…it was like watching dinosaurs vs ninjas. We humped the ball up to big tattie heid McInally hoping for knockdowns, they played it on the deck. Their goal was a thing of beauty. From memory I think they strung about 15 passes together without one of our outfield players touching the ball, from one end of the pitch to the other. Yes we squandered chances, but results are all that really matter in tournaments. Painful, but a sign of what was to come. Costa Rica went on to have a very good World Cup record - quarter finalists - and with a similar population to ours. In terms of embarrassment, the draw in the Faroes, or that stinking non-performance in Dublin must be up there. Or down there.