1. Yes, a lot can certainly change. The Labour government in London may not be popular by then which could hand the SNP a clear win. Equally, we could see further SNP scandals and/or the Starmer government doing well and Labour could win comfortably. But on the very early indications, the most plausible scenario at the moment is that the two parties get very similar numbers of seats (mid 40’s) with Labour are the very slight favourite to be the largest party.
2. The biggest problem you face is persuading others into supporting your budgets and confidence votes. Remember that six Scottish elections have produced:
- One outright majority.
- One minority government that was very close to a majority
- Three coalitions (One of which collapsed mid Parliament leaving the SNP very close to a majority)
- One proper minority
The scenario I outlined would be very close to the 2007-2011 Parliament. In that Parliament Salmond worked with both the Greens and Annabel Goldie’s Conservatives to get stuff done so I can be achieved but it would have been very easy for the opposition parties to vote down that government whenever they felt like it.