Gordon EF Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 It's a factor, of course it is. However, it's not necessarily the deciding factor and the fact remains that even with Gray at the helm, Scottish Labour hasn't yet collapsed in on itself, has it. Yes, I know. I seriously doubt the SNP will win a comfortable victory and I don' think they'll win at all. Labour's result will probably be somewhere between 2007 and 2010. The main reason is probably all to do with GE as opposed to SPEs. The Tories are the main threat at GEs. The Tories are probably more hated than the SNP by most Labour voters. A chance of a Tory win was inevitably bring out plenty of traditional Labour loyalists. It's also very likely that a lot of floating voters see a vote for the SNP as wasted at Westminster as 'they can't win'. And disaffected Labour voters are hardly likely to use a GE to use an SNP vote as a means to punish Labour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Given the Megrahi issue, the budget farce, the expenses scandal after expenses scandal, SPT, Purcell, Armstrong Printing, convicted MPs, Wendy resigning again, the polls showing Iain Gray's popularity, the trams, the defection of prominent Labour supporters, the falling membership numbers, its an absolute wonder that it hasn't fucking collapsed in on itself. I just refuse to believe that they are anywhere NEAR as popular as some of the polling seems to say. Yes, I know. I seriously doubt the SNP will win a comfortable victory and I don' think they'll win at all. Labour's result will probably be somewhere between 2007 and 2010. The main reason is probably all to do with GE as opposed to SPEs. The Tories are the main threat at GEs. The Tories are probably more hated than the SNP by most Labour voters. A chance of a Tory win was inevitably bring out plenty of traditional Labour loyalists. It's also very likely that a lot of floating voters see a vote for the SNP as wasted at Westminster as 'they can't win'. And disaffected Labour voters are hardly likely to use a GE to use an SNP vote as a means to punish Labour. In some respects the SNP's victory in 2007 was the result of some benign factors, there was a combination of the SNP's thoughtful, positive campaign based on specific pledges allied to the huge protest vote built up against Labour due to Iraq. Obviously, this election is a completely different scenario. Labour's local campaigns, particularly since Gray took charge have been run as effective opposition style campaigns, even in seats where they were incumbent, a kind of siege mentality that has worked for them. It hasn't been very principled or very nice to watch but it's effective, even with Gray's obvious limitations when using every answer on a TV broadcast to lament SNP performance (I watched his interview on the eve of the GE - cringeworthy). This time around, it's probably a straight up fight as to who can defend scotland from the Tories better, for whatever that says about Scotland's institutional memory, and it's not so easy for the SNP who now have a record to defend. Megrahi is a lose - lose situation for both parties given the divisive nature of the decision and the varying motives of the parties. In my opinion, the SNP acted only within the remit of the judicial framework of Scots law, I also think that Gray and the Labour msps were out of the loop. All the better for them as it means they can claim some principle from this (as laughable as that sounds and even if it makes them look weak with respect to British Labour). the problem is that being on the right side of opinion for someone means losing someone elses vote. I wouldn't be surprised if both sides let this one lie..... As for things like the 'budget farce' - that largely went over the general public's heads, and I feel it'll be hard for the SNP to get to much traction on this. Same with a lot of the labour controversies brought up by XBL. It just doesn't seem to dent Labour up here all that much. I'll be interested to see how hard the SNP push independence this time out, in government they were very timid on this issue even allowing for their minority government position - the white paper on the issue was hardly an intellectual tour de force, their pronouncements on the issue equally un-awe inspiring. At the moment I think it's on for Laobur to get the most seats, but not by any huge margin. I feel that it'll be a far nastier and more base campaign than 2007 was. I reckon the Labour vote in the central belt will harden up while the SNP make the most of a collapsing LD support. It'll be interesting to see how the Greens do, as a decent share could see them in a great power broking position post election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Have FMQs stopped? I haven't watched for a couple weeks (been busy), but there hardly seems to be any coverage of how they got on recently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldWasp Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Have FMQs stopped? I haven't watched for a couple weeks (been busy), but there hardly seems to be any coverage of how they got on recently... This weeks episode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
th1stleandr0se Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I have a bit of a quandry. In recent years I've voted Lib Dem on the basis of their active involvement with local issues which they have helped to resolve in my favour. They were hands-on and cared. On the other hand, I was disgusted with the performance over student fees (my daughter is at Cambridge so although it's an English matter it did concern us). On yet another hand our Westminster Lib Dem MP resigned his government post in protest over it so he redeemed himself. Then there is the consideration that the SNP have pretty much behaved themselves in their first administration and I consider them worth a second term. I'll probably go SNP if only to try to avoid the unacceptable alternative of Labour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broccoli Dog Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 wales has voted yes in the referendum for increased devolution. where's our referendum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 wales has voted yes in the referendum for increased devolution. where's our referendum? Wales got a referendum. Britain is getting a referendum. Apparently in Scotland this is not the time for a referendum, not with the economy as it is. Besides the Scottish people have a settled will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 wales has voted yes in the referendum for increased devolution. where's our referendum? On what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 wales has voted yes in the referendum for increased devolution. where's our referendum? Pretty poor turnout I see. 35%. A spectacular 22.23% of the Welsh electorate endorsed these new changes at the polls. Political apathy in a nutshell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 On what? Further powers, for a start. Why is it that changes in Wales, with Labour leading the way, required a referendum, but changes in Scotland just get rushed through by the Unionist coalition, with no regard to the electorate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Pretty poor turnout I see. 35%. A spectacular 22.23% of the Welsh electorate endorsed these new changes at the polls. Political apathy in a nutshell. That's about the same pitiful turnout for the by election pish as well. There's no point in voting anyway as we are run by Brussels now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 That's about the same pitiful turnout for the by election pish as well. There's no point in voting anyway as we are run by Brussels now. 22.2% of the Barnsley constituency voted for the winning candidate, right enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 22.2% of the Barnsley constituency voted for the winning candidate, right enough. I didn't even realise it was happening until I heard the result this morning. Its one of those monkey with a red rosette constituencies anyway. The turnouts are fucking dire just now. Nobody would trust a politician as far as they could chuick them now. And rightly so. 13 years of Labour lying and fucking things up. A tory party led by a social democrat and Nick Clegg who had a good week on TV and persuaded folk he was de man. And most of our laws being overturned by Europe anyway. Whats the fucking point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrise Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Another strong poll for Labour: http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/green-coalition-could-hand-power-to-labour-1.1088884 Labour on 44% of the vote, 15% up on the SNP with a small recovery for the ConDems. Voters clearly focusing on them in mind of UK issues. Looks like we could get a FM who no-one recognises in the street! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 All the way from HW Uni, I can hear the champagne corks popping when Renton reads this! Meh, another poll where the SNP, despite four years of hammering from the media and despite being the incumbent party during tough times, hold their vote share around the same level (plus or minus a few percent). This is good news for them and a decent achievement. Even if they lose the next election, its really not the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Another strong poll for Labour: http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/green-coalition-could-hand-power-to-labour-1.1088884 Labour on 44% of the vote, 15% up on the SNP with a small recovery for the ConDems. Voters clearly focusing on them in mind of UK issues. Looks like we could get a FM who no-one recognises in the street! Would give the following seats: Lab: 59 SNP:39 Con: 12 LD: 12 GRN: 6 IND: 1 This is actually showing a trend away from labour and the SNP from the previous TNS poll. Apparently they changed the way they conduct their interviews. Still, a consistent lead for Labour over the SNP in all but the IPSOS-MORI poll form last month. Although the actual points trend is inconsistent. Reynard: Cameron, a social democrat? Behave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 All the way from HW Uni, I can hear the champagne corks popping when Renton reads this! Meh, another poll where the SNP, despite four years of hammering from the media and despite being the incumbent party during tough times, hold their vote share around the same level (plus or minus a few percent). This is good news for them and a decent achievement. Even if they lose the next election, its really not the end of the world. Chill. I'm happy enough that the Greens are polling consistently high enough in the last few polls to grow their Holyrood party significantly. As for Lab-SNP predictions, well, you know I'm sympathetic to the independence arguments and have agreed with a lot of SNP policy. I think the Labour lead is still soft and you'll see it tighten up once the manifestos come out, and poeple can see where the parties* stand. * Theoretically, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Would give the following seats: Lab: 59 SNP:39 Con: 12 LD: 12 GRN: 6 IND: 1 This is actually showing a trend away from labour and the SNP from the previous TNS poll. Apparently they changed the way they conduct their interviews. Still, a consistent lead for Labour over the SNP in all but the IPSOS-MORI poll form last month. Although the actual points trend is inconsistent. Reynard: Cameron, a social democrat? Behave He's not even that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Meh, another poll where the SNP, despite four years of hammering from the media and despite being the incumbent party during tough times, hold their vote share around the same level (plus or minus a few percent). This is good news for them and a decent achievement. Even if they lose the next election, its really not the end of the world. If the SNP were to come out of this election with twenty seats less than Labour it would be an absolute disaster for them, definately not "good news... and a decent acheivement". It would mean that after having the first chance to govern during their parties history they've been unable to break through, suggesting that the 2007 result was a high-water mark for the SNP. If that's the case then achieving independence (or even a vote on the matter) will be far, far harder for the SNP. For what it's worth I think the result will be far closer than the figures above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 If the SNP were to come out of this election with twenty seats less than Labour it would be an absolute disaster for them, definately not "good news... and a decent acheivement". It would mean that after having the first chance to govern during their parties history they've been unable to break through, suggesting that the 2007 result was a high-water mark for the SNP. If that's the case then achieving independence (or even a vote on the matter) will be far, far harder for the SNP. For what it's worth I think the result will be far closer than the figures above. Yep, anything that shows 2007 to be a total protest vote, which it was, will be a disaster for the SNP. They'll need to wait til the next Labout Westminster government to have a chance of being a minority government again. Going to be a semi-interesting election I think;. No chance the actual result will be as wide as these dodgy polls suggest. Wouldn't be very good for the country if Scottish Labour waltzed in with a substantial majority at any rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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