Hedgecutter Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Bloody oil. Only the 777 million barrels in that field alone. It'll probably see my kids into retirement. http://www.energyvoice.com/2014/08/video-north-sea-resource-produce-700million-barrels/ Why has this cursed oil been thrust upon us? Oil companies assess their volumetrics using a P90/P50/P10 system which equates to proven/probable/possible. Seems to me from that article that the 700 figure is the P10 which means there's roughly a 10% chance of that actually being the case. What they have to do is basically look at the total potential volume of the reservoir and keep an open mind that it could potentially be 'fill to spill'... which it rarely is. As soon as I saw that figure I was calling bullshit as it would typically require a > billion barrel field (Forties, Claire) with ridiculously excellent recovery rate. Essentially, it's the equivalent of saying that there's a Dunfermline game on next week with a potential attendance of 12,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joozy Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 The cat's out the bag. Oh yeah, what a massive cat this is. Firstly, the 777m barrels being referred to include proved, probable or possible reserves. P1 (90% chance of being produced) reserves are 204m barrels; P2 (50% certainty of being produced) reserves are 257m barrels; P3 (>10% chance of being produced) are 317m barrels. So while this is obviously good news for the North Sea oil industry (and Xcite in particular), it's hardly a colossal find. Even if production does reach a peak of 57k boepd, then it would represent a low single digit percent of total UKCS production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Your right. It's an old story. Nothing to see here. What a fucking idiot. Wonder if it will make tonights headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Oh yeah, what a massive cat this is. Firstly, the 777m barrels being referred to include proved, probable or possible reserves. P1 (90% chance of being produced) reserves are 204m barrels; P2 (50% certainty of being produced) reserves are 257m barrels; P3 (>10% chance of being produced) are 317m barrels. So while this is obviously good news for the North Sea oil industry (and Xcite in particular), it's hardly a colossal find. Even if production does reach a peak of 57k boepd, then it would represent a low single digit percent of total UKCS production. Once again, kids, oil is BAD. Got that? Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joozy Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Once again, kids, oil is BAD. Got that? Good. Hmmm....considering that I said "this is obviously good news for the North Sea oil industry" (which you've even quoted), it's a bit of a fucking stretch to come up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 I've just checked - Bentley is estimated to be 900 million barrels of heavy oil. To suggest that 70% could be produced (even with EOR) is almost ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 I've just checked - Bentley is estimated to be 900 million barrels of heavy oil. To suggest that 70% could be produced (even with EOR) is almost ridiculous. I would laugh but the SG figures are probably projecting 1100 mn barrels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 I would laugh but the SG figures are probably projecting 1100 mn barrels And Westminster projecting about 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 I would laugh but the SG figures are probably projecting 1100 mn barrels In place. I posted earlier about the difference between STOIIP and recoverables and how folk misreport it. I personally prefer to take the figures first hand: http://www.xcite-energy.com/assets/bentley Seems that journo has added up the P90/50/10 to get a figure, showing a complete lack of understanding as to what those figures mean. The company actually expects to get 257 million barrels, just a tad different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 In place. I posted earlier about the difference between STOIIP and recoverables and how folk misreport it. I personally prefer to take the figures first hand: http://www.xcite-energy.com/assets/bentley Seems that journo has added up the P90/50/10 to get a figure, showing a complete lack of understanding as to what those figures mean. The company actually expects to get 257 million barrels, just a tad different. I'm quite happy with that, you can build a mountain with small pebbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Seems that journo has added up the P90/50/10 to get a figure, showing a complete lack of understanding as to what those figures mean. The company actually expects to get 257 million barrels, just a tad different. I suspect he or she knew exactly what they were doing. It makes a better headline. Kindof like "100 million could die from flu epidemic". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joozy Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 I'm quite happy with that, you can build a mountain with small pebbles. Do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Do it. Can't be arsed, if I could I wouldn't be on here going round in circles day after day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 You've got to love Scottish Unionist and No voters. Feed them any old waffle in the press relating to pensions, borders or how fat Salmond is and they swallow it down like good little sheep. However, anything purporting to oil which could benefit Scotland is treated with suspicion, picked apart and decried. Oh, No voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 anything purporting to oil which could benefit Scotland is treated with suspicion, picked apart and decried. Oh, No voters. I'm actually Yes, I just like to weigh up true facts before coming to a decision hence like to see the true facts published. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 I'm actually Yes, I just like to weigh up true facts before coming to a decision hence like to see the true facts published. That kind of attitude will never catch on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 I'm actually Yes, I just like to weigh up true facts before coming to a decision hence like to see the true facts published. I know you're a Yes voter. I wasn't talking about your input as you clearly know your onions when it comes to oil. I was talking about the general approach by No voters of believing every piece of sensationalist pish the MSM come out with but pouring scorn on there being more than a trickle of oil in Scotland's waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 MOODIE. MOODIE..... http://gregmoodie.com/oil-the-scottish-burden/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tubbs Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 The yes campaign's pretence that an iScotland would see a different kind of politics is absolutely rubbish as continually the yes campaign and its politicians do what politicians have always done - make false promises, inflate figures that suit them and deflate those that don't. The oil figures are just another example of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 The yes campaign's pretence that an iScotland would see a different kind of politics is absolutely rubbish as continually the yes campaign and its politicians do what politicians have always done - make false promises, inflate figures that suit them and deflate those that don't. The oil figures are just another example of this. Whereas it's the BTUKNOTHANKS way to deflate oil figures. I know who I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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