Scotland's Oil

[Confidemus]

Both of you are missing the point completely. The level of reserves in the context of Scottish expenditure is not actually the real issue. I'd be more concerned about the 15-year decline in production and exploration investment being at an all time low. That's something that needs to be addressed irrespective of the referendum result.

Hmm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21564947

North Sea oil investment at 30-year high, industry says

[Confidemus]

Didn't see much of this on the BBC:

http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-economy/9630-sir-donald-mackay-challenges-sir-ian-woods-remarks-on-oil-and-gas

Sir Donald MacKay challenges Sir Ian Wood's remarks on oil and gas

One of Scotland's most respected economists has responded to comments made by Sir Ian Wood after the retired tycoon criticised the Scottish Government's estimate over the amount of North Sea oil still to be extracted from Scottish waters.

Sir Donald MacKay has publicly backed Scottish Government estimates on the economy and North Sea oil and said forecasts criticised by Sir Ian were backed by the oil and gas industry.

On Wednesday oil tycoon Sir Ian Wood intervened in the independence referendum and said figures used by the Scottish Government in its estimates of future North Sea reserves were too high. Sir Ian also accused others of having distorted conclusions contained in a report he himself had published in February.

However responding today, Sir Donald MacKay challenged the accusation that forecast figures had been distorted.

He said: "In forecasting output, the first source I looked at was the Wood review in which Ian Wood states that 'a number of larger new fields are about to come on stream in the next two or three years and that could take production back to the level of two to three years ago'.

"Similar forecasts have been made by Oil and Gas UK and by Professor Alex Kemp and I have taken the former forward through my calculations."

In a report published by Sir Ian Wood in February, the No supporter urged companies to cooperate in order to maximise output from the North Sea. His report concluded that "full implementation of the recommendations in this report … will put the UK in a much stronger position to get closer to the 24bn boe potential."

However on Wednesday the retired tycoon appeared to distance himself from his own report and said suggestions that there were 24bn barrels of oil left were a "distortion" adding that in his view the true figure was no more than 16.5bn barrels.

The tycoon's intervention followed criticism of the UK Government by several leading figures over what many believe to be the deliberate downplaying of the value of future Scottish oil and gas reserves.

Last month Sir Donald MacKay questioned the UK Treasury's oil and gas forecasts, arguing that Westminster's calculations are ill-informed and "wide of the mark".

In an article published by the Times newspaper, Sir Donald said there was "no hole in the Scottish government's oil predictions".

The former Chairman of Scottish Enterprise, who also founded an oil company, criticised forecasts made by the London based Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) for the UK Government. Sir Donald said there was a "mountain of black gold missing" missing from oil forecasts published by the UK Treasury.

In his statement today, Sir Donald repeated his criticism of the OBR and said:

"The result in output in the first five years from 2014-15 is much greater than that anticipated by OBR who, contrary to the views of the industry, predict a continuing fall in output right through to 2018-2020.

"Therefore that is a major factor in predicting much more substantial oil tax revenues than those predicted by OBR.

"The point is that Scotland will begin life as an independent nation in a better fiscal position relative to the UK. An independent Scotland should use that financial advantage to invest in re-engineering our economy towards industrial, manufacturing and trade-able services development.

"Within this fiscal framework the Scottish Government should be able to deliver the major economic programmes contained in their White Paper."

Sir Donald was an Economic Adviser to successive Labour and Conservative Secretaries of State for Scotland for over 25 years. His views will add weight to arguments in favour of a Yes vote.

The issue of oil leapt to the front of the independence debate after reports of significant new discoveries to the west of Shetland. The Clair Ridge field has already been described by oil giant BP as "massive".

Days after the field hit the news, another field to the west of the islands was confirmed as having the potential to generate over 700 million barrels of oil. The Bentley Field, which is due to be drilled by Xcite Energy, has up to 777 million barrels of oil reserves, the company revealed.

The discovery was describe as one of the biggest in decades and will see an estimated 57,000 barrels of oil per day produced.

Last weekend it was announced that potentially massive oil reserves off of the west coast of Scotland are to be examined after the Scottish Government announced it is to set up a review along with top academics and experts.

The area which includes the north and west coast of Shetland down to through the Hebrides and into the Firth of Clyde will be the subject of a review in order to determine the true scale of the oil and gas reserves.

[joozy]

Oh dear DTD.

Do you do ANY research before posting?

Why is it so difficult for some people to understand that exploration investment and total investment are two very different things? The number of exploration wells drilled in the UKCS has dropped precipitously. Total investment has risen as more complex projects have been taken on and equipment rates have risen.

[Confidemus]

Why is it so difficult for some people to understand that exploration investment and total investment are two very different things? The number of exploration wells drilled in the UKCS has dropped precipitously. Total investment has risen as more complex projects have been taken on and equipment rates have risen.

:lol:

Oh, No voters

[strichener]

Why is it so difficult for some people to understand that exploration investment and total investment are two very different things? The number of exploration wells drilled in the UKCS has dropped precipitously. Total investment has risen as more complex projects have been taken on and equipment rates have risen.

Makes no difference to the total investment as to how it is classified. Exploration investment will increase now that the Government have reversed the impact of their tax policies.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Hmm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21564947

North Sea oil investment at 30-year high, industry says

That's development investment on 4 medium sized fields that will come on stream in the latter part of the decade. That will slow or stop temporarily the decline in production. Exploration investment - which is not the same is at a low - as was explained in a previous post.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Makes no difference to the total investment as to how it is classified. Exploration investment will increase now that the Government have reversed the impact of their tax policies.

As has been pointed out out elsewhere you need enough deep sea drilling rigs to do that - we don't actually have enough of that type of exploration rig to do the job.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

:lol:

Oh, No voters

Clearly doesn't understand the difference.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Oh dear DTD.

Do you do ANY research before posting?

Oh I did - you clearly didn't.

http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/news/news.cfm/newsid/933

No response to this yet.

"Tuesday 25 February 2014

Oil & Gas UK Activity Survey highlights Industry Paradox

Oil & Gas UK publishes its Activity Survey 2014 today (25 February), highlighting the contradictions currently at play in the UK offshore oil and gas sector. The industry trade body’s annual report on oil and gas exploration, production and investment activities forecasts capital expenditure of around £13 billion in 2014, the second highest year for investment on record with spending likely to remain above £10 billion next year, following a record £14.4 billion in 2013.

The report also points to better than expected production last year. New developments and an increased focus on production efficiency saw an average of 1.43 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) produced in 2013, eight per cent lower than in 2012 but a significant improvement on the average yearly decline of 15 per cent experienced between 2010 and 2012.

Production is expected to pick up further in 2014 and, with 25 new fields expected to come on-stream over the next two years, production is projected to rise gradually to around 1.7 million boepd by 2018. By then, however, 40 per cent of production will come from new field developments, underlining the continued importance of finding new reserves and bringing them into production.

In contrast, with exploration, the industry is facing its biggest challenge in 50 years. Only 15 exploration wells were drilled in 2013, according to figures from the Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC), continuing a steep downward trend since 2008 when 44 exploration wells were drilled. Exploration over the past three years has been at its lowest in the history of the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) and in 2013 replaced just 80 million barrels.

Oil & Gas UK chief executive, Malcolm Webb, reflects widespread concern on exploration:

“Even if currently planned wells proceed, the rate of drilling is still too low to recover even a fraction of the estimated 6-9 billion barrels yet to be found. Britain’s waters contain an abundance of oil and gas yet to be found and it is critical we find the means to turn the current state of exploration around. Rig availability and access to capital are the two main barriers noted by our members.”

This is just one of the apparent contradictions in the UKCS today. There is record investment, a quarter of which is accounted for by just four large fields. The production outlook, boosted by the introduction of field tax allowances, looks encouraging, yet the survey finds fewer barrels in production, under development or being considered for investment than last year. Of the 10.7 billion boe currently in company plans, four billion boe of these have yet to secure investment and proven reserves have fallen sharply from 7.1 billion boe in 2013 to 6.6 billion boe in 2014. Unless the rate of maturing new developments increases, investment is expected to fall from £13 billion in 2014 to around £7 billion by 2016 to 2017."

[Barney21]

Why does oil become a negative when every other country in the world would/and are dying for it,it is a huge bonus for us or at least should have been.

[doulikefish]

As has been pointed out out elsewhere you need enough deep sea drilling rigs to do that - we don't actually have enough of that type of exploration rig to do the job.

Theres not enough worldwide,however have a look for rigs that have contracts or are about to commence contract and it is up

Thats not deepwater im on about

[Tubbs]

Actually you've just proved Salmond's point.

This "SG man" says that £24bn is achieveable.

He states the conditions needed to do it - i.e. the current management wouldn't work but that radical change would allow access to those reserves.

Who is currently in charge again?

You've buggered yourself over this haven't you.

That this deception of using absolutely aspirational figures is accepted as a fully legitimate tactic of a campaign seeking to win the trust of the people, shows how the end justifies most means for the yes camp. What else is aspirational and subject of ultra positive possibilities in the white paper ?

[Confidemus]

That this deception of using absolutely aspirational figures is accepted as a fully legitimate tactic of a campaign seeking to win the trust of the people, shows how the end justifies most means for the yes camp. What else is aspirational and subject of ultra positive possibilities in the white paper ?

So you're just rubbishing Professor Sir Donald Mackay's assertion that the figures in the white paper are achievable?

Honestly, what is it about No voters that makes them hate Scotland's oil so much?

[Tubbs]

Its achievable that I could win the lottery tonight - but I am not staking my whole economic future on it.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

So you're just rubbishing Professor Sir Donald Mackay's assertion that the figures in the white paper are achievable?

Honestly, what is it about No voters that makes them hate Scotland's oil so much?

Two of the premises are problematic to begin with - over-optimistic production figures and oil price. The SG can't even predict oil income one year in advance - that's not just a criticism of them - the OBR also overestimated oil revenues for the last year figures were available.

[Confidemus]

Its achievable that I could win the lottery tonight - but I am not staking my whole economic future on it.

What are you No voters not getting?

I'll make it simple for you, as swathes of you keep spectacularly missing the point.

1) We don't "need" oil. Even without factoring in a drop of oil, an iScotland would be a richer country than rUK, France, Italy and Japan. Indeed. we'd be the 14th richest country.

2) There's a massive difference between predicting lottery numbers and knowing how much oil we can withdraw from the North Sea. Current estimates take us well beyond 2050 and there are more fields being discovered. OIL IS NOT RUNNING OUT. THERE'S FUCKING HUNNERS OF IT.

I'm getting fed up of quoting Donald Mackay, but it's just not sinking into all you oil deniers..

Responding to comments by Sir Ian Wood on the subject of independence and North Sea oil and gas, Professor Sir Donald MacKay said tonight:

“In forecasting output, the first source I looked at was the Wood review in which Ian Wood states that "a number of larger new fields are about to come on stream in the next two or three years and that could take production back to the level of two to three years ago". Similar forecasts have been made by Oil and Gas UK and by Professor Alex Kemp and I have taken the former forward through my calculations.

“The result in output in the first five years from 2014-15 is much greater than that anticipated by OBR who, contrary to the views of the industry, predict a continuing fall in output right through to 2018-2020.

“Therefore that is a major factor in predicting much more substantial oil tax revenues than those predicted by OBR.

“The point is that Scotland will begin life as an independent nation in a better fiscal position relative to the UK. An independent Scotland should use that financial advantage to invest in re-engineering our economy towards industrial, manufacturing and trade-able services development.

“Within this fiscal framework the Scottish Government should be able to deliver the major economic programmes contained in their White Paper.”

Sheesh.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

What are you No voters not getting?

I'll make it simple for you, as swathes of you keep spectacularly missing the point.

1) We don't "need" oil. Even without factoring in a drop of oil, an iScotland would be a richer country than rUK, France, Italy and Japan. Indeed. we'd be the 14th richest country.

2) There's a massive difference between predicting lottery numbers and knowing how much oil we can withdraw from the North Sea. Current estimates take us well beyond 2050 and there are more fields being discovered. OIL IS NOT RUNNING OUT. THERE'S FUCKING HUNNERS OF IT.

I'm getting fed up of quoting Donald Mackay, but it's just not sinking into all you oil deniers..

Responding to comments by Sir Ian Wood on the subject of independence and North Sea oil and gas, Professor Sir Donald MacKay said tonight:

“In forecasting output, the first source I looked at was the Wood review in which Ian Wood states that "a number of larger new fields are about to come on stream in the next two or three years and that could take production back to the level of two to three years ago". Similar forecasts have been made by Oil and Gas UK and by Professor Alex Kemp and I have taken the former forward through my calculations.

“The result in output in the first five years from 2014-15 is much greater than that anticipated by OBR who, contrary to the views of the industry, predict a continuing fall in output right through to 2018-2020.

“Therefore that is a major factor in predicting much more substantial oil tax revenues than those predicted by OBR.

“The point is that Scotland will begin life as an independent nation in a better fiscal position relative to the UK. An independent Scotland should use that financial advantage to invest in re-engineering our economy towards industrial, manufacturing and trade-able services development.

“Within this fiscal framework the Scottish Government should be able to deliver the major economic programmes contained in their White Paper.”

Sheesh.

I have already said that the 4 new fields will stop the decline in production. However, it won't take it back to anywhere near the 1999 levels. There's also the issue if which fields will be developed beyond 2020 - that is a concern irrespective of a YES or NO vote.

[Confidemus]

I have already said that the 4 new fields will stop the decline in production. However, it won't take it back to anywhere near the 1999 levels. There's also the issue if which fields will be developed beyond 2020 - that is a concern irrespective of a YES or NO vote.

OH NO, THE OIL IS RUNNING OUT!! Obviously oil is a finite resource. No one is pretending otherwise, but to suggest that oil fields will suddenly dwindle after 5 years is, in MY opinion, garbage. The Tories have been telling us for decades it's running out.

New oil fields will be discovered in addition to the current projections which go beyond 2050. Don't you worry about it, petal.

[Blaven]

Two of the premises are problematic to begin with - over-optimuistic production figures and oil price. The SG can't even predict oil income one year in advance - that's not just a criticism of them - the OBR also overestimated oil revenues for the last year figures were available.

So no one can either predict or know for sure?

It could be even more?

[Blaven]

OH NO, THE OIL IS RUNNING OUT!! Obviously oil is a finite resource. No one is pretending otherwise, but to suggest that oil fields will suddenly dwindle after 5 years is, in MY opinion, garbage. The Tories have been telling us for decades it's running out.

New oil fields will be discovered in addition to the current projections which go beyond 2050. Don't you worry about it, petal.

It is bizarre how they guys who work in the industry say that it will still be producing when their kids retire.