wingsoverperthshire Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Good to see Lex still utterly obsessed with odds. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wingsoverperthshire Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 "5/1 is the biggest they've ever been" Exactly why taking that position is sensible at the moment, a lay later on and it's free money. Really depends when you lay. If No Scotland have a 15 point lead a month next August you will get bigger than 5's. Back now and lay after the big Tv debates involving Salmond would seen sensible. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 "5/1 is the biggest they've ever been" Exactly why taking that position is sensible at the moment, a lay later on and it's free money. Yeah... that makes sense. Its a terrible bet if you let it run but i thinl there s def scope to lay off at shorter later on nearer the time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 (edited) Yeah... that makes sense. Its a terrible bet if you let it run but i thinl there s def scope to lay off at shorter later on nearer the time. I just don't see why it won't close and it will take something dramatic to force it out a lot more, 1 of those bets where the downside is favourable. That's why I wouldn't touch 1/5 even if I was a NO voter. Edited November 29, 2013 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I think No is at a high water mark. The polls have consistently show a healthy double digit lead overall. I expect that to shrink into 2014. Ill go for a final result of about 54.5/45.5 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I think No is at a high water mark. The polls have consistently show a healthy double digit lead overall. I expect that to shrink into 2014. Ill go for a final result of about 54.5/45.5 I wouldn't argue with that, that's why I think there's a decent chance of a YES victory, it depends how the debate goes, like a challenger in boxing, it's the YES campaign that need to take the fight to it's opponents. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orlandoblue Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I understand exactly what you mean,that's why I posed my question, do you think 1 in 6 chance A is more/less likely than 1 in 6 chance B? Oh dear 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 (edited) Oh dear It's you that looks foolish, will a re-inforce my point? Backing Chelsea at 5/1 only has 2 outcomes, they win or they don't. Edited November 29, 2013 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mid-table Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I'd never read a thread on independence until now, and to be honest I'm glad I hadn't. The childishness on here is staggering, it actually influences my thoughts on how I'll vote having now seen how immature some people, who I'd previously thought as being quite sensible, are. I think No is at a high water mark. The polls have consistently show a healthy double digit lead overall. I expect that to shrink into 2014. Ill go for a final result of about 54.5/45.5 This is about the only thing I agree with. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I think No is at a high water mark. The polls have consistently show a healthy double digit lead overall. I expect that to shrink into 2014. Ill go for a final result of about 54.5/45.5 I think it will be closer still. A couple % either way. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orlandoblue Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 It's you that looks foolish, will a re-inforce my point? Backing Chelsea at 5/1 only has 2 outcomes, they win or they don't. But odds don't work like that. If you have a price of 5/1 you need to gauge the value of that by what odds are available on all the other runners. You know that though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 But odds don't work like that. If you have a price of 5/1 you need to gauge the value of that by what odds are available on all the other runners. You know that though. All there probabilities will add up to ~83.3% as will the No camps probability. Next you'll be telling me they'll definitely finish above Southampton so they've more chance. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fletch81 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 (edited) I've tried to subtly indicate where you might be getting confused. Real subconscious like. And who decides what is and what is not a country in such a hypothetical situation? Edited December 1, 2013 by fletch81 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I thought some member of the nat clown collective would have had the latest poll up this morning. Taken in the aftermath of the WP670 it shows support for independence sitting at 27% All to play for!!! The doorstep is telling me so and I consult it every night before going to bed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Meanwhile, how about those pension figures? Once you've done that, then we can think about bothering with your wannabe punditry. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kejan Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I think No is at a high water mark. The polls have consistently show a healthy double digit lead overall. I expect that to shrink into 2014. Ill go for a final result of about 54.5/45.5 I think something similar too. I hope to god I'm wrong, but I think it might be something something like 58-42 for a no vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I think something similar too. I hope to god I'm wrong, but I think it might be something something like 58-42 for a no vote. Id be amazed if it was that close. I think if you offered the SNP that just now they would bite your hand off. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I think something similar too. I hope to god I'm wrong, but I think it might be something something like 58-42 for a no vote. Not a chance will it be that far apart. Even ifvthe referendum was tomorrow, it would be much closer than that. Why so negative? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I think something similar too. I hope to god I'm wrong, but I think it might be something something like 58-42 for a no vote. It will be somewhere in the 35 - 65 plus or minus a few percent either way. Its been fairly obvious right from the start that the yes camp were flogging a dead horse. An easy one to predict and once again I'll be proven to be correct. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Id be amazed if it was that close. I think if you offered the SNP that just now they would bite your hand off. Yeah. Right. Even you don't believe that. I'm surprised you haven't switched yet and claimed that you have always supported yes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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