Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Reynard]

Reynard do you not have a job or something to do, your never off of these forums, bore off with your shite.

Vote YES

I was just helping out with some facts and figures and did it in the same percentage terms so beloved of out clown collective here. I'm sure these will be welcomed to the debate. If you don't like/understand them then simply move on like the bulk of the yessirs are going to anyway.

Apparently Mr Parp finds these percentage figures abusive.

Its my lunchtime, I also work for myself so I can do whatever I like, whenever I like.

[AUFC90]

I was just helping out with some facts and figures and did it in the same percentage terms so beloved of out clown collective here. I'm sure these will be welcomed to the debate. If you don't like/understand them then simply move on like the bulk of the yessirs are going to anyway.

Apparently Mr Parp finds these percentage figures abusive.

Its my lunchtime, I also work for myself so I can do whatever I like, whenever I like.

Anyone who champions the UK as a bastion of equality based on figures they just cannot understand shouldn't be taken seriously in any future discussions regarding figures IMO.

[I'm Brian]

It's still just a football forum with a handful of regulars as you well know. Maybe people will flock here "as it gets closer", or maybe they won't.

But it does have thousands of members, not all who will contribute. Many will read., and many already have contributed, albeit not regularly

The links are generally wings bfs and newsnut. I'm quite sure most folk can find their way directly there regardless. The only people that send links from BT are Enrico and a handful of others when they are wanting some sort of groupthink reaction to perceived wrong.

BT stuff and countless links to the pro union press are posted. It is still being put into the domain, whether anyone agrees with it or not. It's then up to you and the like to prove it correct. Isn't that what discussion is about? Regardless of the ramblings of half wits like you and me, it is good that people who don't engage can see both points of view. It's what I always say to people. Research both sides and make and decision based on what you think is right, Most major things tend to end up here.

I am absolutely certain of it yes. The nationalists are losing this referendum and will lose reasonably heavily in September although as the dont knows fall either way their polling will increase from the high twenties or low thirties that its currently at. Thats an inevitability. The No lot will increase too of course.

Define reasonably heavily. Not that long ago you were predicting 75% No vote. Like the polls your predictions are narrowing. 2% either way IMO.

I don't think either campaign has covered itself in much glory here, but you would never admit to the shambles of the yes one.So be it.

If you care to trawl back you can find quotes from me that are critical of the Yes campaign. That said it is in a damned better position and a lot more well organised than no.

[doulikefish]

Stunning stuff from romney again

[Reynard]

But it does have thousands of members, not all who will contribute. Many will read., and many already have contributed, albeit not regularly

BT stuff and countless links to the pro union press are posted. It is still being put into the domain, whether anyone agrees with it or not. It's then up to you and the like to prove it correct. Isn't that what discussion is about? Regardless of the ramblings of half wits like you and me, it is good that people who don't engage can see both points of view. It's what I always say to people. Research both sides and make and decision based on what you think is right, Most major things tend to end up here.

Define reasonably heavily. Not that long ago you were predicting 75% No vote. Like the polls your predictions are narrowing. 2% either way IMO.

If you care to trawl back you can find quotes from me that are critical of the Yes campaign. That said it is in a damned better position and a lot more well organised than no.

Yeah, I'm sure they flock to this part of the forum rather than the football bit they are actually here for. It's still a small number of people regardless.

It's not up to anyone here to prove anything. They can be asked to prove stuff, sometimes they do and sometimes they don't. Given the fact the bulk of folk have already made up their minds then its not going to make a jot of a difference. If you take it seriously then you take it seriously, not my problem.

I have never once predicted 75% no vote. It will be around sixty odd percent I'd reckon. If yes get to 40 they will be doing pretty well anyway. The polls are not narrowing at all yet.

I'm critical of both campaigns they are both utterly shit.

[Reynard]

Stunning stuff from romney again

Thanks. We know how much the NCC enjoy their percentage type statistics. The 9.3%/9.9% seems to appear regularly in all their literature but according to Ayrmad they only become "meaningless" when someone other than a happy clapper produces them.

[H_B]

Someone was on Radio Scotland this morning slating the SNP for cherry picking a period of 1997-2007 for some economic figures that "prove" Scots would be better off out of the Union.

Apparently if you use the last 30 years figures it proves the very opposite.

not sure what it related to - something in the White Paper.

[ayrmad]

These are the figures from HMRC

The final figures are not yet published for the last one but we already know the amount raised in percentage terms. With oil revenue having plummetted from a near record high the previous year it's a fair assumption to make that rUK subsidised Scotland.

Can you furnish us with reasons why production fell other than the UK taxing too much, it'll just be coincidental right enough.

[doulikefish]

Can you furnish us with reasons why production fell other than the UK taxing too much, it'll just be coincidental right enough.

ill give him a hint "exploration"

[ayrmad]

ill give him a hint "exploration"

He doesn't do hints, he's a headline reader.

I'm just glad the gap is down to 4 points among those voters that know what it's all about, it's only the numpties that can scupper independence IMO.

Edited January 10, 2014 by ayrmad

[AUFC90]

Reynard why has there been record investment in the North Sea if the forecasts are so terrible ?

Over the long haul oil prices will go up and once the west coast is opened up ..... Well we will be quids in.

[Burma]

Reynard why has there been record investment in the North Sea if the forecasts are so terrible ?

Over the long haul oil prices will go up and once the west coast is opened up ..... Well we will be quids in.

In recent years investment has declined precipitating a fall in North Sea energy output, from a high of over 4 million barrels per day in 2001 to around 2.8 million barrells per day in 2009. A fall according to Peter Glover of The Energy tribune which has been created by Westminster tax hikes which took a direct toll on investment. "North Sea Oil is not dwindling, however the UK governments Taxation Policy has created a situation where investors have limited their production rates in order to avoid taxes."

In April 2011, Dana announced a find of approximately 130 billion cubic feet of gas in its Platypus prospect in the southern North Sea. In May, the companys skyrocketing confidence saw it enter into an agreement to buy out PetroCanada Netherlands, boosting its own North Sea holdings from 36 to 54 fields, including 15 new fields. In June 2011 Dana announced a new North Sea oilfield discovery at West Rinnes.

Elsewhere in the North Sea, the large Catcher prospect, held between British independents Encore Oil, Premier Oil, Wintershall and Agora Oil and Gas, represents a section of rich formation. Catcher is estimated to hold 150-300 million barrels worth around £1 billion/$1.4 billion in terms of boosting UK Government coffers. Encore Oils further tests at Catcher prompted a report by the company to announce that figure too could be very significantly increased in the future.

In June 2011 the Texas-based Apache Corporation, which bought BPs North Sea Forties Field in 2005, announced prospective capacity had jumped from 150 to 200 million barrels since the purchase. And Apaches Maule field, discovered just last October, is already producing over 11,000 barrels day, with a further well about to be sunk. In addition, development of the Bacchus field will shortly get underway.

In 2008, British economist Peter Odell of Hollands Erasmus University argued that every year more barrels of oil are added to the North sea oil reserves than are used up. Odell points out that when major oil companies cut production they do so to avoid would undermining the market value of oil, and thus reduce their profits. What was simple hard above the ground political and economic factors, is too often misinterpreted or worse, misrepresented by peak oil theorists as below the ground dwindling supply. Odell believes the indications suggest there is still much more to come from the North Seas still unexplored areas.

Dr Richard Pike, CEO of the Royal Society of Chemistry, has also consistently made out a case that there is at least twice as much in the North Sea as major oil producers would have us believe. Pike states that the industry practice of reporting proven reserves is an historic convention with little relevance to actual production.

Around 37 billion barrels has already been extracted from the UK Continental Shelf, leaving around 25.5 billion barrels of recoverable oil. That figure has just been upped by around a fifth to well over 30 billion barrels, the effect of new technology, higher oil prices, renewed interest in fields, as well as the discovery of new ones. A growing body of opinion believes that even upping the reserves by a fifth will prove a conservative estimate.

This doesnt sound like a dwindling resource to me.

[AUFC90]

In recent years investment has declined precipitating a fall in North Sea energy output, from a high of over 4 million barrels per day in 2001 to around 2.8 million barrells per day in 2009. A fall according to Peter Glover of The Energy tribune which has been created by Westminster tax hikes which took a direct toll on investment. "North Sea Oil is not dwindling, however the UK governments Taxation Policy has created a situation where investors have limited their production rates in order to avoid taxes."

In April 2011, Dana announced a find of approximately 130 billion cubic feet of gas in its Platypus prospect in the southern North Sea. In May, the companys skyrocketing confidence saw it enter into an agreement to buy out PetroCanada Netherlands, boosting its own North Sea holdings from 36 to 54 fields, including 15 new fields. In June 2011 Dana announced a new North Sea oilfield discovery at West Rinnes.

Elsewhere in the North Sea, the large Catcher prospect, held between British independents Encore Oil, Premier Oil, Wintershall and Agora Oil and Gas, represents a section of rich formation. Catcher is estimated to hold 150-300 million barrels worth around £1 billion/$1.4 billion in terms of boosting UK Government coffers. Encore Oils further tests at Catcher prompted a report by the company to announce that figure too could be very significantly increased in the future.

In June 2011 the Texas-based Apache Corporation, which bought BPs North Sea Forties Field in 2005, announced prospective capacity had jumped from 150 to 200 million barrels since the purchase. And Apaches Maule field, discovered just last October, is already producing over 11,000 barrels day, with a further well about to be sunk. In addition, development of the Bacchus field will shortly get underway.

In 2008, British economist Peter Odell of Hollands Erasmus University argued that every year more barrels of oil are added to the North sea oil reserves than are used up. Odell points out that when major oil companies cut production they do so to avoid would undermining the market value of oil, and thus reduce their profits. What was simple hard above the ground political and economic factors, is too often misinterpreted or worse, misrepresented by peak oil theorists as below the ground dwindling supply. Odell believes the indications suggest there is still much more to come from the North Seas still unexplored areas.

Dr Richard Pike, CEO of the Royal Society of Chemistry, has also consistently made out a case that there is at least twice as much in the North Sea as major oil producers would have us believe. Pike states that the industry practice of reporting proven reserves is an historic convention with little relevance to actual production.

Around 37 billion barrels has already been extracted from the UK Continental Shelf, leaving around 25.5 billion barrels of recoverable oil. That figure has just been upped by around a fifth to well over 30 billion barrels, the effect of new technology, higher oil prices, renewed interest in fields, as well as the discovery of new ones. A growing body of opinion believes that even upping the reserves by a fifth will prove a conservative estimate.

This doesnt sound like a dwindling resource to me.

Nor me. A lot of people are predicting at least a 100 years worth. That's just whats been discovered.

100 years worth at least.... Can you.imagine how much use we could make.of that compared to the UK. Norway only started paying into their pension fund in mid 90s. If.they can do something like that in less than 20 years then we have every chance.

[Tryfield]

Looks as though I sprung too quick with my £100 on a Yes vote. Only got 3/1. BET365 now giving 4/1. Bugger.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

[Burma]

Nor me. A lot of people are predicting at least a 100 years worth. That's just whats been discovered.

100 years worth at least.... Can you.imagine how much use we could make.of that compared to the UK. Norway only started paying into their pension fund in mid 90s. If.they can do something like that in less than 20 years then we have every chance.

Some interesting quotes:

The North Sea remains an important hub for investment and will continue to be at the heart of the UKs energy security for years to come, - Charles Hendry, the coalition governments energy minister, June 2011

"We are pleased to announce the granting of 356 new North Sea exploration licences a record number of licences since they were first issued in 1964." - Charles Hendry (the same one) July 2011

"There is still a substantial amount left. The remaining reserves on central estimates could be 20-22billion barrels equivalent, and on optimistic estimates could be over 30billion" - Alex Kemp - Professor of petroleum economics at Aberdeen University. June 2008 - As reported in the Daily Mail "North Sea oil 'will last for another half century"

"There are at least 20, 25, even 30billion barrels of the stuff left and that's quite a lot. It's not quite as much as we've used already but it's not far short. Moreover, there are still parts of UK Continental Shelf that have never been examined at all in any great depth. So that could be the low end of a range that could take us into a period when we have access to as much oil again as we've already used." - Professor Peter O'Dell, of the Erasmus University in the Netherlands - June 2008

"Twenty years ago, it was confidently predicted that North Sea oil would run out by the year 2000, but UK oil production continues to increase. In fact, UK reserves of oil

currently stand at around two billion tonnes - as much as has been produced in the last 25 years. Some oil fields, in particular those to the west of the Shetland Islands, have been discovered relatively recently and are at an early stage of their productive life. . Recent and future fields are expected to remain productive at least until 2030." North East England Regional Development Agency report - June 2008

"After some years of decline, we now see the potential to maintain our production from the North Sea at around 200,000-250,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day until 2030. And we are working on projects that will take production from some of our largest fields out towards 2050." - BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley announcing a new £4.5bn oil project West of Shetland- October 2011

"there is plenty of life left in the North Sea Oil industry" David Cameron - Prime Minister ogf Great Britain and Northern Ireland, October 2011.

[AUFC90]

Some interesting quotes:

The North Sea remains an important hub for investment and will continue to be at the heart of the UKs energy security for years to come, - Charles Hendry, the coalition governments energy minister, June 2011

"We are pleased to announce the granting of 356 new North Sea exploration licences a record number of licences since they were first issued in 1964." - Charles Hendry (the same one) July 2011

"There is still a substantial amount left. The remaining reserves on central estimates could be 20-22billion barrels equivalent, and on optimistic estimates could be over 30billion" - Alex Kemp - Professor of petroleum economics at Aberdeen University. June 2008 - As reported in the Daily Mail "North Sea oil 'will last for another half century"

"There are at least 20, 25, even 30billion barrels of the stuff left and that's quite a lot. It's not quite as much as we've used already but it's not far short. Moreover, there are still parts of UK Continental Shelf that have never been examined at all in any great depth. So that could be the low end of a range that could take us into a period when we have access to as much oil again as we've already used." - Professor Peter O'Dell, of the Erasmus University in the Netherlands - June 2008

"Twenty years ago, it was confidently predicted that North Sea oil would run out by the year 2000, but UK oil production continues to increase. In fact, UK reserves of oil

currently stand at around two billion tonnes - as much as has been produced in the last 25 years. Some oil fields, in particular those to the west of the Shetland Islands, have been discovered relatively recently and are at an early stage of their productive life. . Recent and future fields are expected to remain productive at least until 2030." North East England Regional Development Agency report - June 2008

"After some years of decline, we now see the potential to maintain our production from the North Sea at around 200,000-250,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day until 2030. And we are working on projects that will take production from some of our largest fields out towards 2050." - BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley announcing a new £4.5bn oil project West of Shetland- October 2011

"there is plenty of life left in the North Sea Oil industry" David Cameron - Prime Minister ogf Great Britain and Northern Ireland, October 2011.

It's common.knowledge that the oil wont run.out in our lifetime. Still got a whole West coast and a vast area.of the Atlantic to drill.

We.need to safeguard it and invest sp when the oil does run out we are ok. Such foresight will.never come from the UK government.

[ayrmad]

Looks as though I sprung too quick with my £100 on a Yes vote. Only got 3/1. BET365 now giving 4/1. Bugger.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

That's them coming back in in the betting,they were 9/2 and 5/1 around the time of the Scotlands Future.

[Reynard]

Identified public spending UK 2012-13

£560bn identified UK

£456bn England (81.49%)

£54bn Scotland (9.64%)

£30bn Wales (5.33%)

£20bn N Ireland (3.54%)

unidentified public spending

£114bn UK 2012-13 allocated on population %

£96bn England (84%)

£9.5bn Scotland (8.3%)

£5.5bn Wales (4.8%)

£3.3bn N Ireland (3.3%)

Total identified and unidentified spending

£552bn England (81.86%) <----lower than it's 84% population

£63.5bn Scotland (9.42%) <----higher than it's 8.3% population

£35.5bn Wales (5.26%)

£23.3bn N Ireland (3.46%)

could always be better of course, but they'd just piss it away on shite anyway.

Was there any special reason why AUFC90 red dotted the original post?

Doesn't he like to know the truth?

[Reynard]

Someone was on Radio Scotland this morning slating the SNP for cherry picking a period of 1997-2007 for some economic figures that "prove" Scots would be better off out of the Union.

Apparently if you use the last 30 years figures it proves the very opposite.

not sure what it related to - something in the White Paper.

Yeah they deliberately left out the banking system crash and debt crisis that they were championing all along as it helped to destroy their own argument. Its perfectly clear from the figures provided that the SNP are simply once again lying to the people of Scotland.

The figures I've given for the lifetime of the parliament show that even in that time and with the full gas and oil revenues that Scotland is still being subsidised by the UK. I even used the woefully politically biased GERS figures as well as the HMRC figures (which they are legally obliged to produce as accurately as possible) so that the NCC in here could compare and contrast. All I got was abuse for it instead of some thanks for taking the trouble.

I guess the nationalists in here that constantly complain about the level of debate will simply pull up their fellow travellers and give them a stern talking to for lowering the tone? No? Oh well.

I suppose" I'm Brian" could actually be right in his assertion that p[eople were coming in here looking for some facts and figures and were simply put off by the ad hominem attacks on individuals. I suppose we have to put up with stupid people in life at times, it's just that bit tougher when they all support scottish independence.

Edited January 11, 2014 by Reynard

[HardyBamboo]

Yeah they deliberately left out the banking system crash and debt crisis that they were championing all along as it helped to destroy their own argument. Its perfectly clear from the figures provided that the SNP are simply once again lying to the people of Scotland.

The figures I've given for the lifetime of the parliament show that even in that time and with the full gas and oil revenues that Scotland is still being subsidised by the UK. I even used the woefully politically biased GERS figures as well as the HMRC figures (which they are legally obliged to produce as accurately as possible) so that the NCC in here could compare and contrast. All I got was abuse for it instead of some thanks for taking the trouble.

I guess the nationalists in here that constantly complain about the level of debate will simply pull up their fellow travellers and give them a stern talking to for lowering the tone? No? Oh well.

I suppose" I'm Brian" could actually be right in his assertion that p[eople were coming in here looking for some facts and figures and were simply put off by the ad hominem attacks on individuals. I suppose we have to put up with stupid people in life at times, it's just that bit tougher when they all support scottish independence.

Interesting, can you give me a link to the relevant post please?