Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[ecto]

The polls at that time were low 30s at best. I'm not putting any faith in the DKs. Without them we are at 45% in the latest poll. Yes has been gaining ground since before Christmas. Unfortunately for unionists... Better together are shockingly bad and I can only see them getting worse and worse as the wheels continue to fall off.

45% really!

[HardyBamboo]

45% really!

Yep, really.

[AUFC90]

45% really!

Yes

[Jamaldo]

I don't agree at all, don't think Better Together has not really got started yet, if Yes Scotland cannot make ground just now they never will, the poll rating for Independence is not much different from the day the white paper was published

If you mean in terms of putting forward credible arguments for remaining in the UK then I concur 100%.

[Confidemus]

I don't agree at all, don't think Better Together has not really got started yet,

Au contraire. I feel BetterTogether have shot their bolt, as it were.

All they have is scaremongering, and it hasn't worked.

[Mr Bairn]

Au contraire. I feel BetterTogether have shot their bolt, as it were.

All they have is scaremongering, and it hasn't worked.

Neither it has. Tell me more about all those polls yes is winning in?

[AUFC90]

Neither it has. Tell me more about all those polls yes is winning in?

No have always been in the lead so that's not important. What is important is the size of that lead and the direction of travel. The gap is getting ever narrower

[DeeTillEhDeh]

That is a curious one.

They've threatened everything bar nuclear war and pestilence and the No campaign still can't get above 60%. In fact they are struggling to get above 50% actually.

That tells me that they've shot their bolt because if their fear message hasn't been sold to people yet then fear won't suddenly change them in the next few months.

The question is simply whether the Yes campaign have enough time and enough credibility to persuade another 10% of voters to go for a Yes.

The polls seem to have settled at 50-40 for No or thereabouts but as someone else above said, there's likely to be a massive turnout for this and the polling system lacks the data to know how that can turn out. This is about as close to a completely unknown situation as we've witnessed in recent times.

Personally think the No campaign have been pish so far - Yes better organised. Yet no real change in voting intentions.

[ecto]

Au contraire. I feel BetterTogether have shot their bolt, as it were.

All they have is scaremongering, and it hasn't worked.

Cant see at all what you base this on, still 6 months to go, getting a bit tired of the "scaremongering" line from Yes Scotland and the SNP though

Personally think the No campaign have been pish so far - Yes better organised. Yet no real change in voting intentions.

Better Together have been poor so far that is true but you have to remember the SNP have been campaigning since 2011, but yes no real inroads with the polls, seems to be Yes Scotland do like to assume the DK,s will split 50/50, dangerous assumption to make, DK's should not be depended on until the actual vote

Edited March 14, 2014 by ecto

[AUFC90]

Cant see at all what you base this on, still 6 months to go, getting a bit tired of the "scaremongering" line from Yes Scotland and the SNP though

Better Together have been poor so far that is true but you have to remember the SNP have been campaigning since 2011, but yes no real inroads with the polls, seems to be Yes Scotland do like to assume the DK,s will split 50/50, dangerous assumption to make, DK's should not be depended on until the actual vote

No real inroads in the polls yet YES are sitting at 45% excluding the DKs ? Are you just trying to be ignorant of the facts. Yes are there or there abouts with 6 months to go. I wouldn't like to pick a winner.

[ecto]

No real inroads in the polls yet YES are sitting at 45% excluding the DKs ? Are you just trying to be ignorant of the facts. Yes are there or there abouts with 6 months to go. I wouldn't like to pick a winner.

could you point me to poll that has yes vote at 45%, I have not seen that, the polls on uk polling report website do not have any polls with the yes vote on over 40% let alone 45%

[Broccoli Dog]

could you point me to poll that has yes vote at 45%, I have not seen that, the polls on uk polling report website do not have any polls with the yes vote on over 40% let alone 45%

http://www.betternation.org/2014/03/new-polling-specifically-our-new-polling/

[AUFC90]

could you point me to poll that has yes vote at 45%, I have not seen that, the polls on uk polling report website do not have any polls with the yes vote on over 40% let alone 45%

The poll in question is on this very thread.

http://m.stv.tv/news/politics/268383-independence-poll-yes-393-no-476-dont-know-131/

Yes are gaining and no have played all their cards. Pleasing.

Edited March 15, 2014 by AUFC90

[ecto]

No real inroads in the polls yet YES are sitting at 45% excluding the DKs ? Are you just trying to be ignorant of the facts. Yes are there or there abouts with 6 months to go. I wouldn't like to pick a winner.

http://www.betternation.org/2014/03/new-polling-specifically-our-new-polling/

This poll is discounting the DKs to get 45%, but the downside for Yes Scotland is it gives 55% to the NO camp, that STV poll is the same of the above mentioned

Edited March 15, 2014 by ecto

[AUFC90]

This poll is discounting the DKs to get 45%, but the downside for Yes Scotland is it gives 55% to the NO camp

As you can see from my post above I was excluding the DKs. Of course no are in front but we are gaining. That's the main thing. According to you, we have not made inroads even though YES were luck to get 30% before the white paper and no were above 60%. As long as a lot of NO voters continue thinking they are miles ahead I'm happy Edited March 15, 2014 by AUFC90

[ecto]

. As long as a lot of NO voters continue thinking they are miles ahead I'm happy

Don't think they are thinking that, but I am happy to think that you are thinking that, if you think that makes you happy

[ecto]

I do see what goes on here, polls that are poor for Yes Scotland and the SNP are dismissed out of hand, March 3rd for example, polls that are better are talked up and accepted as fact.

[H_B]

I do see what goes on here, polls that are poor for Yes Scotland and the SNP are dismissed out of hand, March 3rd for example, polls that are better are talked up and accepted as fact.

This has been the pattern for some time.

You'll also notice that in polls which have a poor headline figure for "Yes", suddenly Don't Knows are excluded to make it look a bit better.

Also, if the previous poll by that pollster was lower for Yes (or for No), then they claim momentum and restrict things to only that pollster.

If this isn't the case, they find a poll from a completely different pollster where Yes was lower and claim momentum.

[ecto]

This has been the pattern for some time.

You'll also notice that in polls which have a poor headline figure for "Yes", suddenly Don't Knows are excluded to make it look a bit better.

Also, if the previous poll by that pollster was lower for Yes (or for No), then they claim momentum and restrict things to only that pollster.

If this isn't the case, they find a poll from a completely different pollster where Yes was lower and claim momentum.

Have noticed all of the above, also these posts will be dismissed for some reason or another, there is a pattern certainly

[H_B]

Also, amusingly, blogs like this (note the headline) http://www.arcofprosperity.org/yes-will-overtake-no-in-five-months-time/

were breathlessly repeated last year by the NCC. "Look at the momentum (they told us).... the graphs are due to converge in September 2013.

"The effect is that according to current trends, Yes will overtake No on the 1st of September 2013, and by the time of the referendum, there will be more than twice as many Yes voters as No voters. Obviously it’s very unlikely that the current trends will continue for the next 18 months, and of course opinion never shifts in such a neat, linear fashion. However, it does show that the Yes side is building up momentum, and that it is indeed possible, perhaps even likely, that Scotland will vote yes to independence"

Strangely, we haven't seen many updates from this joker in a while and the NCC seem to have dropped him like a hot potato.