Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Confidemus]

I look forward to seeing the discrediting machine go into overdrive with this poll.

I'm surprised your sense of shame at betraying your country allows you to look forward to anything.

[H_B]

And here it is...

Fantastic stuff... Just when you think Scotgoespop can't get less credible... We get this.

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/new-tns-bmrb-poll-shows-2-increase-in.html?m=1

'Don't be fooled by the fact that support for No seems to have increased by more than Yes'

Seems to James? Seems to?

'As the numbers of DKs decrease the side in the lead needs a bigger increase just to stand still'

He then goes on to be excited about the 2 % Yes increase.

An embarrassment of a blog.

[renton]

TNS BMRB: Yes 32% (+2%); No 46% (+4%); DK 22% (-6%)

So that seems to have the undecided start to disappear. Unfortunately, they have shifted to no.

It'll be interesting to see if this trend is seen in other pollsters. There has been a lot of inactivity recently.

Yeah, not a great poll: since tns have so many dks it takes a large swing to shift the numbers when dks are stripped out. The 3 more yes friendly pollsters are yet to report however, given this was conducted between the two Yg polls and despite what I maintain is a dodgy methodology in that pollster it would appear to be a shift to No over June.

Tns take ages to publish so the fieldwork is a couple of weeks ago now, so we'll really need another tns poll to confirm the movement for sure, but yeah, at the moment we look fucked

[renton]

One of the interesting things is the other questions asked: there seems to be a huge amount of fatigue in the electorate now with 63% saying they are no longer listening to the debate due to both sides contradicting each other. That'll suit No to the ground.

[H_B]

One of the interesting things is the other questions asked: there seems to be a huge amount of fatigue in the electorate now with 63% saying they are no longer listening to the debate due to both sides contradicting each other. That'll suit No to the ground.

It will. As the winner elect.

I think the Yes campaign has been fairly good overall, but I think their willingness to get bogged down in SNP lies and fail and unsupported claims has been a negative for them.

I can understand having seen the propaganda from both sides why people would be pissed off and fed up with both of them

[renton]

It will. As the winner elect.

I think the Yes campaign has been fairly good overall, but I think their willingness to get bogged down in SNP lies and fail and unsupported claims has been a negative for them.

I can understand having seen the propaganda from both sides why people would be pissed off and fed up with both of them

No have never had much of a case, theit strategy is negative, attritional and always has been. Throw enough shit at the wall and hope it sticks. At the moment it looks like working.

[Mr Bairn]

Interesting what John Curtice says that undecideds appear to be breaking in the same proportion as those who had already decided, and that voters who expressed Devo Max as an absolute preference broke for no in an 8:1 ratio. It's certainly not over for yes Scotland, but it seems like they need snookers.

[H_B]

No have never had much of a case, theit strategy is negative, attritional and always has been. Throw enough shit at the wall and hope it sticks. At the moment it looks like working.

As I've said before controlling the question led to that. Yes had an enormous advantage and they have used it well largely.

They 're not going to win because we don't want secession from the UK. But a movement that was broadly 1 in 3 people is now 2 in 5. Progress.

[jmothecat]

Interesting what John Curtice says that undecideds appear to be breaking in the same proportion as those who had already decided, and that voters who expressed Devo Max as an absolute preference broke for no in an 8:1 ratio. It's certainly not over for yes Scotland, but it seems like they need snookers.

Someone told me that in these kind of referendums and decisions, undecideds tend to go with the conservative options and vote for the status quo. Anyone any idea if there is any evidence to support this?

I'm sort of waiting for a 'If you don't know, vote no' leaflet to come through the door.

[renton]

As I've said before controlling the question led to that. Yes had an enormous advantage and they have used it well largely.

They 're not going to win because we don't want secession from the UK. But a movement that was broadly 1 in 3 people is now 2 in 5. Progress.

That and the fact that the no side had no central tenant, no big idea or narrative as to why the UK is 'a good thing' meant they never had much choice.

If yes do get over 40% on the day, then Labour should be worried that their Scottish vote might not hold up. One of the fall outs from their bitter, negative tone will be a significant number of natural westminster labour voters absolutely scunnered with the party.

Edited July 6, 2014 by renton

[H_B]

That and the fact that the no side had no central tenant, no big idea or narrative as to why the UK is 'a good thing' meant they never had much choice.

If yes do get over 40% on the day, then Labour should be worried that their Scottish vote might not hold up. One of the fall outs from their bitter, negative tone will be a significant number of natural westminster labour voters absolutely scunnered with the party.

It's really difficult to sell the status quo as sexy, especially against a side that can promise anything they want and claim the problems you are living with will all go away as long as you vote Yes.

Thing is people aren't that stupid. Maybe Yes should have tried to appear more credible in their rhetoric.

The whole milk and honey thing gas become a joke people ridicule them for.

That and the utter refusal to acknowledge there would be any problems to be addressed post Secession have been Yes s big weak point. They don't convince enough.

All in all a decent campaign though. They've tried hard and put in a lot if shoe leather.

I'd like to see people stay with politics after the No vote. I think it's a good thing people gave become politically active both for Yes and No.

[H_B]

Someone told me that in these kind of referendums and decisions, undecideds tend to go with the conservative options and vote for the status quo. Anyone any idea if there is any evidence to support this?

I'm sort of waiting for a 'If you don't know, vote no' leaflet to come through the door.

Well Quebec is the only really analogous situation.

And there No won despite the Yes ccampaign leading in the final polls.

Suggesting that when it comes to it there was a move to the safer option from at least some of the former Yes s.

[renton]

It's really difficult to sell the status quo as sexy, especially against a side that can promise anything they want and claim the problems you are living with will all go away as long as you vote Yes.

Thing is people aren't that stupid. Maybe Yes should have tried to appear more credible in their rhetoric.

The whole milk and honey thing gas become a joke people ridicule them for.

That and the utter refusal to acknowledge there would be any problems to be addressed post Secession have been Yes s big weak point. They don't convince enough.

All in all a decent campaign though. They've tried hard and put in a lot if shoe leather.

I'd like to see people stay with politics after the No vote. I think it's a good thing people gave become politically active both for Yes and No.

I honestly don't think they ever did go 'land of milk and honey' when they assert that we will be in the eu, Un, nato and use the pound these were all relatively modest assumptions. Saying that things will work out ok is only 'milk and honey' when compared to the end is nigh rhetoric coming from the other side.

It's not that the status quo isn't sexy either, it's that there simply is no point to the UK beyond defending entrenched corporate interests. However, no has been a masterclass in selling shit to people already up to their neck in it. This is as good as it gets, they say - and year after year, even that level of goodness erodes ever so slightly.

No have been masterful in selling the message of managed decline. Good for them, no subtlety but none needed. Use the MSM like a sledgehammer and compound doubts and fear.

Yes should take lessons, this has been the British political machine at the peak of its ability.

[H_B]

I honestly don't think they ever did go 'land of milk and honey' when they assert that we will be in the eu, Un, nato and use the pound these were all relatively modest assumptions. Saying that things will work out ok is only 'milk and honey' when compared to the end is nigh rhetoric coming from the other side.

Lolwut? The child poverty adverts? The 'one of the richest countries in the world' adverts..

You can't seriously be suggesting the Yes campaign haven't tried to pretend the problems if today can be solved only if you vote Yes.

Thing is, people are dumb. They just aren't that dumb.

[H_B]

And that's also very very selective.

As you well know they lied utterly about EU membership. Were forced into a humiliating climbdown.

On NATO membership the SNP carried out an extraordinary about face in a desperate attempt to win votes.

[H_B]

On the currency issue the extraordinary arrogance if the Scottish government was laid out for all to see and again came back to bite them.

Telling other sovereign nations what they have to do to accomodate what would he really handy fir Scotland.

Then we have the embarrassing attempts to threaten walking away from debt. Embarrassing claims that Scotland has an entitlement to the Pound post Secession. Etc etc.

The SNP s incompetence has been a millstone round the neck of Yes.

After the loss, I'd love to spend time with Patrick Harvie and get his views on the deleterious effects of the multiple SNP fails in the campaign

[renton]

And that's also very very selective.

As you well know they lied utterly about EU membership. Were forced into a humiliating climbdown.

On NATO membership the SNP carried out an extraordinary about face in a desperate attempt to win votes.

They said they'd be in the eu, they still say that. Some climb down.

Anyway, it matters little. No have won through the preponderance of negativity and a healthy dose of out right lying.

[1320Lichtie]

http://uk.isidewith.com/poll/420350795-scottish-independence-poll/443458700-scotland

I used that before the Euro elections to see what my results were. That's ridiculously close. 16k votes and YES winning by 300. English people would of voted on that too though no?

[renton]

On the currency issue the extraordinary arrogance if the Scottish government was laid out for all to see and again came back to bite them.

Telling other sovereign nations what they have to do to accomodate what would he really handy fir Scotland.

Then we have the embarrassing attempts to threaten walking away from debt. Embarrassing claims that Scotland has an entitlement to the Pound post Secession. Etc etc.

The SNP s incompetence has been a millstone round the neck of Yes.

After the loss, I'd love to spend time with Patrick Harvie and get his views on the deleterious effects of the multiple SNP fails in the campaign

Except that on the currency issue, no had by far the worse of the exchange. The polls narrowed significantly in the wake of that and In the impossible scenario of a yes win we would use the pound and it's highly likely a currency union would happen.

[Mr Bairn]

The AV referendum was certainly won by the no side grabbing a lot of the "don't know" type voters. I honestly think yes might have won if that vote was held on a standalone day without any devolved/council votes