DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Wrong. It's anywhere between neck and neck and a 6 point gap (assuming 3% margin of error). Besides which the Yes/No split is a derivative sub-sample because it excludes Don't Knows. The industry standard 3% uncertainty applies to the whole sample, not the subset. Including Don't Knows, the gap is 5%, which as you are well aware is beyond the margin of error. +/- 3% would make it anywhere between neck & neck and 12% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Surely the don't knows who are breaking at this stage could still break the other way again (both from no to yes and vice versa). If you've not formed an opinion until 10 weeks to go, on an issue that's been top story for fucking ages, it's fair to say you're not the most engaged or commited voter. If either campaign performs particularly strongly (or badly) in the remaining weeks, there seems to a shitload of people that could be won over. I think that campaign could be the Yes side but my concern is the polling strength of the staunch unionists. Yes could have a strong final few months but they'd have to win an incredible percentage of the soft voters, and I can't see that happening. My undestanding of the different polls have seen is that DKs are breaking more to No - that might change but I doubt it. I still stand by my 57-43 margin prediction. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I think Westminster will go further. Voting No will give them a mandate to do what the f**k they want with Scotland, because no matter how bad things get, the jocks don't want to leave. And that, chums, sickens me. The real Project Fear. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 +/- 3% would make it anywhere between neck & neck and 12% Well indeed. I should have said the swing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P45 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 The real Project Fear. One guy posting his opinion on a football forum as opposed to a government funded campaign? Do you maybe want to rethink that? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Depends how many horses are involved. Bravo 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 Why are yes losing in the polls that favour yes? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 (edited) Why are yes losing in the polls that favour yes? Read AdLibs posts here. Believe him or just be mad, like BT's whiteknight..... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Drcwc6xg67k Edited July 11, 2014 by HaikuHibee 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Why are yes losing in the polls that favour yes? Because they're losing by more in the polls that favour no. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Read AdLibs posts here. Believe him or just be mad, like BT's whiteknight..... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Drcwc6xg67k What the actual f**k did I just watch there OYF it's like something you'd see in a horror movie from a group of satan worshippers or something, crazy old dick! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 Because more are planning to vote No. HTH. Why? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ira Gaines Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Naw really sure the folk on here can speak for every No voter tbh. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 (edited) Just caught up with the This Week programme. Andrew Neil asked all the guests what they thought the outcome of the referendum would be? Abbot and Portillo were sitting on the fence with a "too close to call" reply. Kennedy said it would be a No win but only just. Strangest reply was from Hosie who said Yes would win by a bigger majority than what many believed. Which I thought was strange and something he didn't really need to say. He could have made a similar comment to Kennedy and changed it to Yes winning narrowly, but he didn't. Over confident or does he know something? Edited July 11, 2014 by Colkitto 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Just caught up with the This Week programme. Andrew Neil asked all the guests what they thought the outcome of the referendum would be? Abbot and Portillo were sitting on the fence with a "too close to call" reply. Kennedy said it would be a No win but only just. Strangest reply was from Hosie who said Yes would win by a bigger majority than what many believed. Which I thought was strange and something he didn't really need to say. He could have made a similar comment to Kennedy and changed it to Yes winning narrowly, but he didn't. Over confident or does he know something? Mood music or delusion. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sophia Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 At the end of his documentary on Alex Salmond during the last election Portillo speculated on whether Salmond could deliver a YES vote despite the odds. I think Portillo suspected then that Salmond would succeed. Although he couldn't say it last night, I got the impression that he thinks a YES is now more than likely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 So much for it being nowt to do with Salmond... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Just caught up with the This Week programme. Andrew Neil asked all the guests what they thought the outcome of the referendum would be? Abbot and Portillo were sitting on the fence with a "too close to call" reply. Kennedy said it would be a No win but only just. Strangest reply was from Hosie who said Yes would win by a bigger majority than what many believed. Which I thought was strange and something he didn't really need to say. He could have made a similar comment to Kennedy and changed it to Yes winning narrowly, but he didn't. Over confident or does he know something? I was very surprised and reassured by Hosie's answer, it didn't even come across as overconfident or arrogant. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broccoli Dog Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I think there is a majority to be won, the hard part is to convince them to do something a bit scary. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I *do* pay for my shopping, champ. My parents don't stop eating just because I've left home and have an independent income. Well you're not very fcuking good at it if you think getting ripped off at Sainsbury's for routine stuff entitles you to criticise your parents. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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