joozy Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 The no percentage seems solid at mid forties. Yes need to Hoover up almost all of the undecideds between now and polling day. Now that's very feasible, because there's a reason these people haven't made their minds up, but it's a big ask. Im guessting if there was no over round the odds should be yes 4/1 no 1/5 No overround with a no vote at 83% CoS and yes at 20% CoS. Very good. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendan Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 (edited) 1- I'm allright jack.2- I'm feart.3- I'm british. They're not really mutually exclusive, are they? Edited July 13, 2014 by bendan 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Yes down 2% and No up 2% in ICM s poll. Let the discrediting commence. Not to worry though as Stewart Hosie must know something. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 It's worth noting that the ICM poll against which it is being compared is the one that polling equivalent of Wings over Scotland got so animated about. You will recall he claimed that the "do you feel comfortable telling people how you intend to vote" question in that poll was leading and would lead to better No figures. If that's the case, for this poll to be successfully discredited as evidence of further Yes regression and No solidifying, he and Colkitto will have to find that this poll had an even more leading question. I wonder what problem they will dig up this time? Not enough Radical Independence attendees in the sub sample? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 I'll go for some whataboutery concerning the 2011 election along with a newly remembered lack of trust in all polling data. The wannabe WoS guy should be entertaining. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Ah, it appears the poor man's Rev Stu has decided to ignore the last ICM poll and compare it to one from 2 months ago What a comedy blog this is. http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/is-that-it-icm-poll-no-campaign-have.html?m=1 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 It's worth noting that the ICM poll against which it is being compared is the one that polling equivalent of Wings over Scotland got so animated about. You will recall he claimed that the "do you feel comfortable telling people how you intend to vote" question in that poll was leading and would lead to better No figures. If that's the case, for this poll to be successfully discredited as evidence of further Yes regression and No solidifying, he and Colkitto will have to find that this poll had an even more leading question. I wonder what problem they will dig up this time? Not enough Radical Independence attendees in the sub sample? It's worth noting that you're a fanny. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Isn't 1/5 an 80% chance of success? Because that's 1.2 in decimal odds? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joozy Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 You're the maths student. But in fractional odds, the simplest way to think about it is that the first number tells you the amount of times you (as the bettor) will lose and the second number tells you how many times you'll win. 1/5, appropriately enough, is the odds of you picking the right number when rolling a dice - and that isn't a 20% CoS. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 So 1/4 would be 80% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joozy Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 So 1/4 would be 80% Bingo. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Yes down 2% and No up 2% in ICM s poll. Let the discrediting commence. Not to worry though as Stewart Hosie must know something. Well like all other polls I'll wait and see the data tables to see questions asked. But I go back to what I said in an earlier post (before the two latest polls were published) and that it looks like we are going to see the good and bad polls right up to the 18th September. ALL pollsters can't be right and with under 10 weeks to go it will be interesting to see if any polling organisation changes their polling findings dramatically. With a huge, historical, monumental vote that whatever the result will reverberate world wide, I wouldn't like to be the organisation that got it badly wrong. Their reputation will be in tatters to say the least no matter what their excuse. I'm sure there will be the usual debate and argument on here but unless something changes it looks like good and bad polls till the 18th September. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 When the “don’t knows” were excluded, Yes support was 43 per cent, down 2 percentage points on last month’s ICM poll. No was comfortably ahead on 57 per cent, an increase of 2 percentage points on last month. http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-shows-stalling-yes-vote-1-3474916 That's the figures I have been predicting for months. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Random variation. The 3% variance is for the full sample of 1000 respondents. When you start breaking it down into much smaller sub samples, each had a far higher random error. If you're only talking about a sample size of 100 people then the 95% confidence interval for the true mean is a 10% interval. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Leighton Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Lordy, the inability of the Wha's Like Us? campaign to accept poll results is reminiscent of that Iraqi chappie who'd make a fool of himself night after night while the bombs rained down. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 (edited) Lordy, the inability of the Wha's Like Us? campaign to accept poll results is reminiscent of that Iraqi chappie who'd make a fool of himself night after night while the bombs rained down.They accept them if it can be looked at in a positive light for yes. There's very few of them these days however, so most of the separatists have just reverted to the 'All polls are wrong' approach. Edited July 13, 2014 by Lex 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 What's clear from the polls is that the Yes gains at the start of the year are a distant memory. Now we're seeing stagnation and/or a slight move to No. This is important as there will be another Yes mini surge before September, probably after the Commie Games. Problem Yes has is that they have nothing new to say and it's just not working. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinkinFighter Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 They accept them if it can be looked at in a positive light for yes. There's very few of them these days however, so most of the separatists have just reverted to the 'All polls are wrong' approach. And it is the same on the no side too. Shocker. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 They accept them if it can be looked at in a positive light for yes. There's very few of them these days however, so most of the separatists have just reverted to the 'All polls are wrong' approach. I think it's still a 24 horse race. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 I think it's still a 24 horse race. Think there will be a lot of "neighs" now that Devo max has been declared a non runner 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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