Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Ad Lib]

It's worth noting that the ICM poll against which it is being compared is the one that polling equivalent of Wings over Scotland got so animated about. You will recall he claimed that the "do you feel comfortable telling people how you intend to vote" question in that poll was leading and would lead to better No figures.

If that's the case, for this poll to be successfully discredited as evidence of further Yes regression and No solidifying, he and Colkitto will have to find that this poll had an even more leading question. I wonder what problem they will dig up this time? Not enough Radical Independence attendees in the sub sample?

[H_B]

I'll go for some whataboutery concerning the 2011 election along with a newly remembered lack of trust in all polling data.

The wannabe WoS guy should be entertaining.

[H_B]

Ah, it appears the poor man's Rev Stu has decided to ignore the last ICM poll and compare it to one from 2 months ago

What a comedy blog this is.

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/is-that-it-icm-poll-no-campaign-have.html?m=1

[Confidemus]

It's worth noting that the ICM poll against which it is being compared is the one that polling equivalent of Wings over Scotland got so animated about. You will recall he claimed that the "do you feel comfortable telling people how you intend to vote" question in that poll was leading and would lead to better No figures.

If that's the case, for this poll to be successfully discredited as evidence of further Yes regression and No solidifying, he and Colkitto will have to find that this poll had an even more leading question. I wonder what problem they will dig up this time? Not enough Radical Independence attendees in the sub sample?

It's worth noting that you're a fanny.

[Mr Bairn]

Isn't 1/5 an 80% chance of success? Because that's 1.2 in decimal odds?

[joozy]

You're the maths student.

But in fractional odds, the simplest way to think about it is that the first number tells you the amount of times you (as the bettor) will lose and the second number tells you how many times you'll win. 1/5, appropriately enough, is the odds of you picking the right number when rolling a dice - and that isn't a 20% CoS.

[Mr Bairn]

So 1/4 would be 80%

[joozy]

So 1/4 would be 80%

Bingo.

[Colkitto]

Yes down 2% and No up 2% in ICM s poll.

Let the discrediting commence.

Not to worry though as Stewart Hosie must know something.

Well like all other polls I'll wait and see the data tables to see questions asked.

But I go back to what I said in an earlier post (before the two latest polls were published) and that it looks like we are going to see the good and bad polls right up to the 18th September.

ALL pollsters can't be right and with under 10 weeks to go it will be interesting to see if any polling organisation changes their polling findings dramatically.

With a huge, historical, monumental vote that whatever the result will reverberate world wide, I wouldn't like to be the organisation that got it badly wrong. Their reputation will be in tatters to say the least no matter what their excuse.

I'm sure there will be the usual debate and argument on here but unless something changes it looks like good and bad polls till the 18th September.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

When the “don’t knows” were excluded, Yes support was 43 per cent, down 2 percentage points on last month’s ICM poll. No was comfortably ahead on 57 per cent, an increase of 2 percentage points on last month.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-shows-stalling-yes-vote-1-3474916

That's the figures I have been predicting for months.

[Mr Bairn]

Random variation. The 3% variance is for the full sample of 1000 respondents. When you start breaking it down into much smaller sub samples, each had a far higher random error.

If you're only talking about a sample size of 100 people then the 95% confidence interval for the true mean is a 10% interval.

[Jim Leighton]

Lordy, the inability of the Wha's Like Us? campaign to accept poll results is reminiscent of that Iraqi chappie who'd make a fool of himself night after night while the bombs rained down.

[Lex]

Lordy, the inability of the Wha's Like Us? campaign to accept poll results is reminiscent of that Iraqi chappie who'd make a fool of himself night after night while the bombs rained down.

They accept them if it can be looked at in a positive light for yes.

There's very few of them these days however, so most of the separatists have just reverted to the 'All polls are wrong' approach.

Edited July 13, 2014 by Lex

[H_B]

What's clear from the polls is that the Yes gains at the start of the year are a distant memory.

Now we're seeing stagnation and/or a slight move to No.

This is important as there will be another Yes mini surge before September, probably after the Commie Games.

Problem Yes has is that they have nothing new to say and it's just not working.

[LinkinFighter]

They accept them if it can be looked at in a positive light for yes.

There's very few of them these days however, so most of the separatists have just reverted to the 'All polls are wrong' approach.

And it is the same on the no side too. Shocker.

[Confidemus]

They accept them if it can be looked at in a positive light for yes.

There's very few of them these days however, so most of the separatists have just reverted to the 'All polls are wrong' approach.

I think it's still a 24 horse race.

[Mr Bairn]

I think it's still a 24 horse race.

Think there will be a lot of "neighs" now that Devo max has been declared a non runner

[Confidemus]

Think there will be a lot of "neighs" now that Devo max has been declared a non runner

As long as people hoof it along to polling stations, I think Yes will canter it. I wouldn't want to be saddled with a No vote. Oats a horrible outcome, but hay, what do I know?

I can't apologise enough.

[thepundit]

A mini surge being all the Yes camp need if two or the pollsters are to be believed.

Or if Radical Independence are to be believed, Yes is already way out in the lead on 57%.

According to a Tweet an angry Nationalist sent me yesterday anyway after I celebrated No increasing it's lead even further.

[H_B]

A mini surge being all the Yes camp need if two or the pollsters are to be believed.

Edited to add: Most interesting/strange findings from the ICM poll is they believe more woman (44%) will vote Yes - compared with men at (43%)

I mean more in the overall gap.

If you look at the Poll of Polls stuff, you'll see the gap has at best for Yes narrowed to just below 10. And it's started climbing again. Up another couple of points since then.

The Yes campaign will be gutted by the last month or so poll wise.