Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Jamaldo]

Blair McDougall ‏@blairmcdougall 9h

77% of voters in Corby say #nothanks to separation as 'Little Scotland' holds a mock #indyref

I really don't know what to say about this.

[ayrmad]

I really don't know what to say about this.

I wouldn't worry about it, he's just trying to press home their advantage.

Edited July 14, 2014 by ayrmad

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

Corby.

[H_B]

I can only post what I hear, if nothing has surfaced by voting day you can at least gain some succour from that when you're licking your wounds the day after.

You should learn to be a bit less gullible and not give credence to such obvious random bullshit.

We both know there is no such smoking gun.

It's the referendum equivalent of the guys down the pub who make up stories of which players are signing for a football team they've got from a very good source in the club...

[ayrmad]

You should learn to be a bit less gullible and not give credence to such obvious random bullshit.

We both know there is no such smoking gun.

It's the referendum equivalent of the guys down the pub who make up stories of which players are signing for a football team they've got from a very good source in the club...

Your having a laugh using a word like gullible when you've been like a big cod on many issues during this campaign.

You spent days trying to convince us all that we wouldn't get into the EU, ffs.

[H_B]

Your having a laugh using a word like gullible when you've been like a big cod on many issues during this campaign.

You spent days trying to convince us all that we wouldn't get into the EU, ffs.

Please evidence this utterly ludicrous claim.

I have never at any point claimed Scotland would not get into the EU.

If you are going to make stuff up, at least make it semi-plausible

[Confidemus]

FTFY

[ayrmad]

Please evidence this utterly ludicrous claim.

I have never at any point claimed Scotland would not get into the EU.

If you are going to make stuff up, at least make it semi-plausible

Oh, you didn't claim it outright, you just used whatever drivel the UK's lackeys around the world decided to spew to paint a false picture.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Still laughing at the "silent majority" bollocks from a week or so ago.

In what other circumstances would a person whose viewpoint is shared by the vast majority (allegedly) of people be scared to speak out about their voting intentions? It is simply rubbish.

In my opinion the "silent" section of the electorate are the people who are undecided or who can't be bothered with any of it.

1979-1997?

[renton]

I mean more in the overall gap.

If you look at the Poll of Polls stuff, you'll see the gap has at best for Yes narrowed to just below 10. And it's started climbing again. Up another couple of points since then.

The Yes campaign will be gutted by the last month or so poll wise.

Yup, TNS and ICM polls have been pretty damaging, Though in the latter case, ICM has been the most volatile pollster in terms of showing radical swings from month to month, it's hard to know with them what's really going on (and that gender breakdown looks really suspect, I'll bet you in the next ICM poll that the gender gap is back). For me TNS was the worst in terms of news, certainly in terms of how DKs were getting squeezed. Reading that the unicorn unpublished Ipsos polls reckoned 80% of DKs would vote yes, but then Ipsos didn't have massive numbers of DKs so how much of a difference that would make is questionable, by comparison even if said information were true (which it may well not be).

Just have to keep plugging away at the minute, it's been a bad month and yes really need to find some momentum again over late summer.

[Casual Bystander]

When I meet yes voters now, I find it hard not to deal with them in a purely condescending patronising manner.

' On you go laddie, if that's what you believe in, you go and vote yes '

* Tap on head *

**Snigger**

Yet on the flip side I look upon No voters as toadies who have no will of their own, desperate to show contrition to those who don't care about them.

Your patronising shite only underlines the curious mixture of arrogance and ignorance the No vote comprises of.

[Mr Bairn]

Hey if you want to believe there's been a 25% swing to No in one of the age brackets (44-54 ?), 8% swing in the under 25 to Yes.10% swing to Yes in 65+ and 16% swing to No in the 34-45 group then that's your right.

That smacks of a poll being done on too small a sample size.

But hey - believe what you like.

^^^ Needs to go back to school and take a class on basic stastical mathematics.

The idea is that a 95% confidence interval for the entire population can be obtained by sampling roughly 1000 people. That interval is 3%. You could improve this to 2% if you had a 2500 sample, but for some reason that isn't done.

When you start breaking it down into subsets, the sample size is naturally much smaller so the data is naturally more raw. The only way to confidently get a true picture of subset attitudes would be to poll 1000 women, or 1000 people between 16-24, or 1000 people that live in Dundee etc

[ayrmad]

Not forgetting Woman being more ro0 indy than men!

That alone should have big red lights flashing all over the place, they're telling us that the female vote has taken an astronomical leap for no reason while in the very same time frame the male vote must've dropped dramatically for no reason as well.

Why are the YES siding pollsters very quiet recently.

[Mr Bairn]

That alone should have big red lights flashing all over the place, they're telling us that the female vote has taken an astronomical leap for no reason while in the very same time frame the male vote must've dropped dramatically for no reason as well.

Why are the YES siding pollsters very quiet recently.

Did you even bother reading what I just said? Polling 500 men and 500 women gives us a good idea of the consensus of the whole population, but it does not give us a good idea of the consensus of men and the consensus of women, because the margin of error is too big for a 500-sample poll

[ayrmad]

Did you even bother reading what I just said? Polling 500 men and 500 women gives us a good idea of the consensus of the whole population, but it does not give us a good idea of the consensus of men and the consensus of women, because the margin of error is too big for a 500-sample poll

I never really bother reading what you post with any sincerity, you've posted far too much like a tit for me take you seriously on here so quickly.

What does confidence interval mean.

[thepundit]

But we have no idea what the general consensus in Scotland actually is though do we?

So you don't think there's more No supporters in Scotland?

Oh come on, most Separatists have already accepted Yes will lose.

Edit: to add to this point, the Unionist party's get more votes than pro-independence party's which is another indicator Scotland will vote No. And then there's the amount of public donations since January, No had raised far more.

Edited July 14, 2014 by thepundit

[Mr Bairn]

I never really bother reading what you post with any sincerity, you've posted far too much like a tit for me take you seriously on here so quickly.

What does confidence interval mean.

A confidence interval is this:

The 95% confidence interval for 1000 respondents in 3%

Thus,

95% of the time, you would expect the results of a poll of 1000 to be within 3% of the "true" result you'd get if you polled the entire population

So 5% of the results would be downright outliers, and the remaining 95% would be within 3% of the "true" result

[H_B]

Oh, you didn't claim it outright, you just used whatever drivel the UK's lackeys around the world decided to spew to paint a false picture.

Right, so that will be a humiliating climbdown from your earlier ridiculous claim.

[Mr Bairn]

Right, so that will be a humiliating climbdown from your earlier ridiculous claim.

^^^ He really is having a nightmare this morning. Some Ayrshire village is looking for its resident idiot.

[ayrmad]

Right, so that will be a humiliating climbdown from your earlier ridiculous claim.

Right, so that will be a humiliating climbdown from your earlier ridiculous claim.

What ridiculous claim would that be, you were the one that battered on about for day after day and week after week, I haven't stated that Mr Bairn is a numpty but I'm clearly implying that I think he is.