Confidemus Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Just out of interest.... At the Ashbourne (Derbyshire) Highland gathering yesterday, 20th July attendees amongst the 8,000 strong crowd were asked to vote in a mock referendum. Should Scotland become an independent country? The Poll booth opened at 9.00am and closed at 5.00pm, with a steady line of people queuing up throughout the day to cast their vote. The result was as follows. YES - 22% NO - 78 % Clutch a few of these, pal. Conservatives less popular than Gordon Brown's May 2010 Labour Party according to the latest Ashcroft poll. And we're still told we'll get a Conservative Government if we vote No. The only thing that's certain is that Scottish independence makes it more likely that the rest of the UK will get a Conservative government, given that 40 or so seats accounts for about half of Labour's predicted majority. Either way, your irrelevance of a party will be cast out into the political ether. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P45 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 The ICM polls show that the Tories were 1 point ahead of Labour just last week for the first time. The Tories just need 1 more point to win a majority. Labour need a 5 point swing. The Tories might be unpopular but so are Labour. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 (edited) The ICM polls show that the Tories were 1 point ahead of Labour just last week for the first time. The Tories just need 1 more point to win a majority. Labour need a 5 point swing. The Tories might be unpopular but so are Labour. This is untrue. The Tories, according to ICM, do not need "1 more point to win a majority". ICM polled LAB 33 CON 34 LIB 12 UKIP 9 which puts Labour as the largest party. Even a direct 2 point swing, putting Tories on 36 and Labour on 31, would not be enough for a Tory majority. A direct 3 point swing, putting the Tories on 37 and Labour on 30, would give them a slender majority of 8 seats on uniform national swing. ETA: there are actually mildly interesting (though completely unscientific) parallels between the Tory prospects and a Yes vote in the referendum. Both require, at bare minimum, an unlikely, direct, 3 point swing in their favour, even if you take the most favourable poll as being cast iron truth. Edited July 21, 2014 by Ad Lib 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 ICM polled LAB 33 CON 34 LIB 12 UKIP 9 which puts Labour as the largest party. Hang on a minute... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Hang on a minute... You're obviously unfamiliar with first past the post. Labour can lose by about 6 points and still be the largest party, and lose by about 4 or 5 and still win a majority. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 You're obviously unfamiliar with first past the post. Labour can lose by about 6 points and still be the largest party, and lose by about 4 or 5 and still win a majority. I'm not, Labour need to be clear in the polls at the moment to return a majority, the incumbents will get the most seats if not an overall majority if the polls are accurate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P45 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 (edited) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2692422/Tories-ahead-Ukip-support-slumps-Conservatives-one-point-advantage-Farages-party-drops-7-following-Euro-election-triumph.html According to the Guardian/ICM poll, Ukip has gone into reverse with the Tories gaining the most of the defectors, up three points to 34 percent. Labour gained one point to to 33 per cent and the Lib Dems went up two to 12 per cent. I've got to add that a uniform swing will see them get them the 20 extra seats. They might not get that but they'll still have a slim majority. Edited July 21, 2014 by P45 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boabinoban Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Crowd fairly mixed including many visiting Scots and ex-pats but accept that the majority of attendees were English. Does go a little against the view that we are all seen as nation of sponging freeloaders by our cousins down south though don't you think? Eeeeeh...no. We may just have some stuff that the English want. Also I'm sure there are a whole load of English people who don't have a clue about the independence campaign as there is virtually zero coverage of it in England apart from the unionist shite that's spouted from the pro-union press. Are you actually surprised by any of this? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 You're obviously unfamiliar with first past the post. Labour can lose by about 6 points and still be the largest party, and lose by about 4 or 5 and still win a majority. You're obviously unfamiliar with common sense. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 The point Ad Lib is making is that if the Tories top the poll by a small number of votes Labour would still be our largest party 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkoRaj Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Conservatives less popular than Gordon Brown's May 2010 Labour Party according to the latest Ashcroft poll. And we're still told we'll get a Conservative Government if we vote No. The only thing that's certain is that Scottish independence makes it more likely that the rest of the UK will get a Conservative government, given that 40 or so seats accounts for about half of Labour's predicted majority. So we will never get a Conservative government again? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 (edited) So we will never get a Conservative government again? It is extremely unlikely that, within the next 10 years, we will get a Conservative government again. We haven't had one for what, 17 years now? Unless the boundaries get changed, they have no chance unless they poll better than Cameron did in 2010. Something they've not done since 1992 and show no sign of doing in the immediate future. I'm not going to try to predict the fortunes of the political parties more than a decade from now. That would be a fool's errand and is contingent upon too many variables, including what the parties stand for. I do think, however, the Tories will experience somewhat of a mini-revival in Scotland in the next 2 elections, if not in popular vote then in terms of seats, most likely at my own party's expense. Edited July 21, 2014 by Ad Lib 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinkinFighter Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Conservatives less popular than Gordon Brown's May 2010 Labour Party according to the latest Ashcroft poll. And we're still told we'll get a Conservative Government if we vote No. The only thing that's certain is that Scottish independence makes it more likely that the rest of the UK will get a Conservative government, given that 40 or so seats accounts for about half of Labour's predicted majority. Good, they'll get what they want. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Good, they'll get what they want. Most of them won't. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 It is extremely unlikely that, within the next 10 years, we will get a Conservative government again. We haven't had one for what, 17 years now? Unless the boundaries get changed, they have no chance unless they poll better than Cameron did in 2010. Something they've not done since 1992 and show no sign of doing in the immediate future. I'm not going to try to predict the fortunes of the political parties more than a decade from now. That would be a fool's errand and is contingent upon too many variables, including what the parties stand for. I do think, however, the Tories will experience somewhat of a mini-revival in Scotland in the next 2 elections, if not in popular vote then in terms of seats, most likely at my own party's expense. Not many seats in Scotland would see the Tories likely to gain from the Lib Dems Argyll and Bute: 4 way marginal with the 4th place SNP, who hold the Holyrood seat, within 6000 votes of the Lib Dems. Tories could take it on a low turnout but a hold or a Labour gain seem more likely. Give the Tories a 10% chance here Berwickshire: Michael Moore's seat. Could go Tory but I fancy he will hold it. 40% chance for the Blues. Caithness: Will go SNP East Dunbartonshire: Jo Swinson's seat. Will go Labour. Edinburgh West: Likely to be a hold Gordon: Possible hold or maybe SNP gain Inverness: Hold or a Labour gain, tiny chance it could go SNP Northern Isles: Carmichael will hold Lochaber: Easy hold. West Aberdeenshire: Best chance for the Tories but I expect a hold 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sophia Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 It is extremely unlikely that, within the next 10 years, we will get a Conservative government again. We haven't had one for what, 17 years now? Unless the boundaries get changed, they have no chance unless they poll better than Cameron did in 2010. Something they've not done since 1992 and show no sign of doing in the immediate future.I'm not going to try to predict the fortunes of the political parties more than a decade from now. That would be a fool's errand and is contingent upon too many variables, including what the parties stand for. I do think, however, the Tories will experience somewhat of a mini-revival in Scotland in the next 2 elections, if not in popular vote then in terms of seats, most likely at my own party's expense. Its my opinion (worth at least equal to the writer of the guff above) that Labour, having chosen the wrong brother, will not form the next UK government. One thing is certain, if we vote YES, we'll never, never ever again, be subjected to the shameful stuff that is visited upon us from London. I'm old enough to clearly remember M. Forsyth. The brutal Tories were in power for a generation and I shudder to think that we'll see his likes again. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falcor Roar Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Conservatives less popular than Gordon Brown's May 2010 Labour Party according to the latest Ashcroft poll. And we're still told we'll get a Conservative Government if we vote No. The only thing that's certain is that Scottish independence makes it more likely that the rest of the UK will get a Conservative government, given that 40 or so seats accounts for about half of Labour's predicted majority. The only thing that is certain aye! The Torries will be really popular down south for isolating Scotland then giving us a referendum then presiding over the union being broken up. Or wait maybe not. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Not many seats in Scotland would see the Tories likely to gain from the Lib Dems Argyll and Bute: 4 way marginal with the 4th place SNP, who hold the Holyrood seat, within 6000 votes of the Lib Dems. Tories could take it on a low turnout but a hold or a Labour gain seem more likely. Give the Tories a 10% chance here Berwickshire: Michael Moore's seat. Could go Tory but I fancy he will hold it. 40% chance for the Blues. Caithness: Will go SNP East Dunbartonshire: Jo Swinson's seat. Will go Labour. Edinburgh West: Likely to be a hold Gordon: Possible hold or maybe SNP gain Inverness: Hold or a Labour gain, tiny chance it could go SNP Northern Isles: Carmichael will hold Lochaber: Easy hold. West Aberdeenshire: Best chance for the Tories but I expect a hold Your compass is way off. There isn't a cat's chance in hell the Lib Dems will hold Edinburgh West, but it could be a 2 or 3 way marginal come 2015. Moore's under threat and the point about his seat and the Borders generally is that it's not just a question of Lib-Tory marginals. The collapse of the Liberal vote in the Borders could actually help the Tories in the Tory-Labour marginals in Dumfries. I would be pleasantly surprised if the Lib Dems held West Aberdeenshire. I reckon notwithstanding Malcolm Bruce stepping down we've actually got a better prospect of holding Gordon than WA, and both are going to struggle. Inverness will go SNP, not Labour, if Danny loses his seat. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinkinFighter Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Most of them won't. They should vote for a party offering electoral reform then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Your compass is way off. There isn't a cat's chance in hell the Lib Dems will hold Edinburgh West, but it could be a 2 or 3 way marginal come 2015. Moore's under threat and the point about his seat and the Borders generally is that it's not just a question of Lib-Tory marginals. The collapse of the Liberal vote in the Borders could actually help the Tories in the Tory-Labour marginals in Dumfries. I would be pleasantly surprised if the Lib Dems held West Aberdeenshire. I reckon notwithstanding Malcolm Bruce stepping down we've actually got a better prospect of holding Gordon than WA, and both are going to struggle. Inverness will go SNP, not Labour, if Danny loses his seat. Sorry dude, I get most of my information from the sub-sections of ukpollingreport, but the general feeling on there is that the 2010 result in Edinburgh West was near the bottom of the scope for the Lib Dems because the previous MP was standing down. The feeling I got was that it was unlikely to get worse. Labour are second in Inverness so barring a 2011-esque result where the Lib Dem vote almost completely swing to the SNP then Labour have a chance. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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