banana Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Either way, 5/1 is ridiculous value. It seems about right tbh, a No vote looks pretty secure. Maybe worth a punt and hoping for a performance masterclass to end all performance masterclasses from Salmond in the next debate and the Yes campaign to ramp it up big style in the coming weeks. They need to focus their message and sell like fcuk. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Genuinely cannot believe No voters are still crowing about the debate. Polls show Yes increased 2% off the back of the debate. I've heard loads about undecideds moving to Yes but none to No. And this was Salmond at his worst and Darling at the top of his game. Lulz. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Genuinely cannot believe No voters are still crowing about the debate. Polls show Yes increased 2% off the back of the debate. I've heard loads about undecideds moving to Yes but none to No. And this was Salmond at his worst and Darling at the top of his game. Lulz. All this debate has done is make me realise how many people are desperate to vote for independence, that debate might not have convinced them but it certainly flicked the receptive YES switch on in many, pleasing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 It seems about right tbh, a No vote looks pretty secure. Maybe worth a punt and hoping for a performance masterclass to end all performance masterclasses from Salmond in the next debate and the Yes campaign to ramp it up big style in the coming weeks. They need to focus their message and sell like fcuk. The only point in betting Yes is if you think the price will contract and you can lay it before ref day. It might come in a touch between now and then. Otherwise you just have a small strip of toilet paper the day after No wins. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 All this debate has done is make me realise how many people are desperate to vote for independence, that debate might not have convinced them but it certainly flicked the receptive YES switch on in many, pleasing. I'm starting to think of Yes as the athlete/ horse in a race which hangs back, reserving energy, only to put on the afterburners in the home straight. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 The only point in betting Yes is if you think the price will contract and you can lay it before ref day. It might come in a touch between now and then. Otherwise you just have a small strip of toilet paper the day after No wins. Or a wedge after YES wins. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Not fucking likely 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 5/1 is huge, for what will undoubtedly be a very close finish! Still think No will take the margin next month, but that's massive value with so much still to play for! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 As H_B points out, the wise move is to put a wad of cash in the hope of arbitrage profit before polling day. If you're actually lumping Yes in anticipation of winning then you're in trouble 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 As H_B points out, the wise move is to put a wad of cash in the hope of arbitrage profit before polling day. If you're actually lumping Yes in anticipation of winning then you're in trouble Taking 5's and laying at 2's has already been advised and happened, if YES come back into 2's now you'd be as well holding out for the victory. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 The wishful thinking and desperation of some here is laughable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 The wishful thinking and desperation of some here is laughable. Hiya Mr Bairn. Hiya pal. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Hiya Mr Bairn. Hiya pal. I'm not Scrappy Doo. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 The wishful thinking and desperation of some here is laughable. It's quite funny really. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 The wishful thinking and desperation of some here is laughable. As is the mewling and whining from Camp No. Much wailing and gnashing of teeth from a side who have it in the bag. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 As is the mewling and whining from Camp No. Much wailing and gnashing of teeth from a side who have it in the bag. Over,done n dusted, I don't know why we're on here, we'd be better just hiding like Reynard then just pop up occasionally when a positive appears. I'm surprised that a small swing is being regarded as insurmountable by so many that claim to be at the top of the intelligence tree. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Over,done n dusted, I don't know why we're on here, we'd be better just hiding like Reynard then just pop up occasionally when a positive appears. I'm surprised that a small swing is being regarded as insurmountable by so many that claim to be at the top of the intelligence tree. Yes have no chance. Didn't you know? NO CHANCE. The bookies say so. We should listen to our nice, caring, No voting friends and give up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Yes have no chance. Didn't you know? NO CHANCE. The bookies say so. We should listen to our nice, caring, No voting friends and give up. Alternatively we could all just turn up and vote unlike the nos 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I'll try and be absolutely objective here, and not let my natural bias to yes interfere. If you look at the BPC polling data on it's own, it seems unlikely that yes would get itself ahead in the polls by the day of reckoning. Several times now, pollsters have shown yes to within a bawhair of levelling, or drawing ahead - without ever actually managing to do so. It's worth noting that all of the pollsters have various quirks in their methodologies: The online polls can suffer from picking the same folk, over and over, as well as their individual issues -YouGov with it's proper Nat/Passing Nat strategy that just begs for the multiplication of statistical error within the sample, or Panelbase and it's recent shift to partial weighting to the Euro elections who's turnout was low enough to cast doubt on the representative nature of that election on Scotland. Then you have TNS, who's face to face polling method tends to reduce anonymity, and possibly therefore voter honesty (possibly why TNS always record much larger DKs than everyone else?) and Ipsos who's phone polling methods can be skewed by demographics - having to massively upweight certain sections to get the weighting right, and even then not actually weighting to the demographic profile that SSAS/census data recorded. However, they all agree that yes is behind - they can't all be wrong. I do think that numbers are probably in the mid forties (dk excluded) for yes. Even Ipsos are above 40% now for Yes. Thus I believe if you ironed out all the varying polling idosynchracies you'd get to a number of around 45% for yes (DK excluded). DKs are NOT around "a third of the electorate" as some articles have suggested, unless of course TNS are correct. Having said that, the proportional difference between yes and No in TNS is broaldy the same as the online guys with smaller DKs. If DKs split marginally for Yes, as those few polls who've asked indicated, yes might end up fractionally higher - 46% or so. I think this is just the reality of where we are, right now. One thing I don't believe is that yes needs to be considerably ahead on the day to do the job. 50.01% would do it, I don't think in this referendum there is a soft yes, and the general tone and feel of the debate means that going from No/DK to Yes is a bit of a trial and once there folk tend to be Yes voters with some conviction. it's getting to that fabled 50+1 vote that's the issue. In terms of the Canvassing returns. these are generally unreliable. Like TNS, but worse. You could easily see industrial scale lying to the canvassers (admittedly th SNP/Yes graded scale is designed to at least filter some of that out). The RIC as far as i can see don't use that methodology in their mass canvasses, thus are open to being lied to. The other thing is that theirs is not, and isn't intended to be a dmeographic profile of Scotland. It's targeted at the C2D2E communties, the folk who haven't before voted. One thing in their favour is the sheer size fo the canvass, which lends it some weight (quality is great, but quantity has a quality all of it's own) - again, that's not demogrpahically accurate. These guys seem to break massively yes, and if we can doubt the overall margin of of yes to no in these canvasses, we can't really doubt the overall sentiment. The BPC pollsters struggle to cope with first time voters, and I think a lot of Yes hopes are pinned on getting these guys out on referendum day, but how realistic is that. You can canvass them, register them, convince them - but you might well not get them to the booth. How realistic is it to get folk out who are naturally wary of politics, haven't voted in decades and thinks all this stuff happens in another world that has nothing to do with them. I'd be wary on relying on them, even if they are the folk a Yes vote has the most potential to help. So to conclude? Well, it's a bit of a rambling post that no one will have any interest in, mostly I just wanted to waste some bandwidth and put my thoughts in one place. Really, Yes at the moment look like losing while getting a vote in the mid forties on the day. Respectable, but ultimately futile. Unless of course, Reynard's worst nightmare comes true and a previously unnacounted for demographic of "scheme goblins" rise from the concrete towers to smite him mightily. probably not though, and unless there is a shift we'll go down 45/55 in my opinion. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I think it will be marginally closer than that but in the ballpark . Its been quite surprising to me how static polling has been. I think referendum fatigue is an issue too. The chat from those I've spoken to after the debate was certainly 'how many times have we heard these tired sound bites trotted out now'? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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