ICTChris Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Also, I clicked into another board and found a post about the Yes percentage in the last five polls for the five major polling companies reguarly surveying the referendum. YouGov - 38, 35, 35, 36, 37 Panelbase - 42, 41, 43, 40, 40 ICM - 38, 34, 36, 34, 39 Survation - 37, 40, 41, 39, 37 TNS - 32, 32, 32, 30, 30 Dunno why TNS are so low. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 Dunno why Panelbase is so high! -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 10 Green MSP's?? Wowser. I'd take that - but how the Labour Party can gain is beyond me. What nitwits are voting for their drivel? I'd caution against the results as they are based on averages across different companies, not all of whom polled the same way. Only a couple polled about list votes which is where the Greens would get their seats, I assume. If the result was No then I think that the Greens might get a boost. Significant numbers of people backing Yes seem to be further to the Left of the SNP and the Greens are the best option in that political space. Also, Patrick Harvie is a good performer in the chamber and in the media, I think having a spokesman like that adds to their credibility. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodjesSixteenIncher Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Saw a poll for the Scottish Parliament on Twitter. It's an average of several polling companies, not all of whom will be using the same methodology etc but it's mildly interesting SNP - 50 MSPs (-19) Labour - 47 MSPs (+10) Conservative - 16 MSPs (+1) Green - 10 MSPs (+8 ) Lib Dems - 6 MSPs (+1) Only a few seats more for Labour/Conservative coaltion. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crùbag Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Saw a poll for the Scottish Parliament on Twitter. It's an average of several polling companies, not all of whom will be using the same methodology etc but it's mildly interesting SNP - 50 MSPs (-19) Labour - 47 MSPs (+10) Conservative - 16 MSPs (+1) Green - 10 MSPs (+8 ) Lib Dems - 6 MSPs (+1) Doubt this will pan out. Lib Dems will lose seats, not gain. And Labour won't gain many. The SNP will probably lose a few but I can't see many voters impressed by the 'missing' Lamont. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Doubt this will pan out. Lib Dems will lose seats, not gain. And Labour won't gain many. The SNP will probably lose a few but I can't see many voters impressed by the 'missing' Lamont. It really depends. If Labour win Westminster, they'll be permo-fucked. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 10 Green MSP's?? Wowser. I'd take that - but how the Labour Party can gain is beyond me. What nitwits are voting for their drivel? Labour should make gains. SNP did very well, so will lose some seats. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Also, I clicked into another board and found a post about the Yes percentage in the last five polls for the five major polling companies reguarly surveying the referendum. YouGov - 38, 35, 35, 36, 37 Panelbase - 42, 41, 43, 40, 40 ICM - 38, 34, 36, 34, 39 Survation - 37, 40, 41, 39, 37 TNS - 32, 32, 32, 30, 30 Dunno why TNS are so low. They also have the highest number of DKs - something to do with how certain people are to vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Labour should make gains. SNP did very well, so will lose some seats. I think that's a fair assessment. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tryfield Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Still hunners of time left for a flip-flop in the betting. If NO ever drop down to even money, the games a bogey. If YES get to 2/1, I think then it's games a bogey. YES will win with a few days to go. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scothmist Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 They also have the highest number of DKs - something to do with how certain people are to vote. The only thing I would change in that statement is. They also have the highest number of DKs - something to do with how certain people are to vote NO 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted August 25, 2014 Author Share Posted August 25, 2014 (edited) Still hunners of time left for a flip-flop in the betting. If NO ever drop down to even money, the games a bogey. If YES get to 2/1, I think then it's games a bogey. YES will win with a few days to go. a1bet.jpg The OP by myself in this thread was last November.. 9 months ago. Then the best odds for yes were 5/1, and the best odds for no were 1/5.Fast forward to today, and the best odds for yes are 6/1 (the second post was these odds will never last get on them now!!) whereas the best no odds has shortened to 1/7. That's the reality, YES is further away now than it was in November, and it was pretty far away in November! Edited August 25, 2014 by Lex 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Ah, it's our probability expert Lex again. Yes isn't actually polling lower than they were in November. The longer odds are because there is now far less time for a big swing to happen. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted August 25, 2014 Author Share Posted August 25, 2014 Ah, it's our probability expert Lex again. Yes isn't actually polling lower than they were in November. The longer odds are because there is now far less time for a big swing to happen. Exactly. So they're no closer now than they were in November, hence they're less likely to win as they have less time to turn it around. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 (edited) Exactly. So they're no closer now than they were in November, hence they're less likely to win as they have less time to turn it around. Aye but would you put your money on at 6/1 in a two horse or a five horse race? Edited August 25, 2014 by strichener 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Took a straw poll at a kitchen party last night yes: 0 no: 9 undecided: 0 wont vote: 3 doesnt take a genius to figure out the percentages there 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tio Pepe Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Took a straw poll at a kitchen party last night yes: 0 no: 9 undecided: 0 wont vote: 3 doesnt take a genius to figure out the percentages there What is a kitchen party? Do you all wear pinnies? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chomp my root Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Took a straw poll at a kitchen party last night yes: 0 no: 9 undecided: 0 wont vote: 3 doesnt take a genius to figure out the percentages there 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Tune. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Took a straw poll at a kitchen party last night yes: 0 no: 9 undecided: 0 wont vote: 3 doesnt take a genius to figure out the percentages there Good times. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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