Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[BerwickMad]

It's true.

[Casual Bystander]

The sad case of a No voter with no vote. Brings tears to a glass eye so it does.

[BerwickMad]

My one vote wouldn't be the difference anyway.

Away from that troll, how will the results be revealed on the night? Will it be by constituency? Region? Or will we only find out once all votes are counted?

[Mr Bairn]

My one vote wouldn't be the difference anyway.

Away from that troll, how will the results be revealed on the night? Will it be by constituency? Region? Or will we only find out once all votes are counted?

In the same way as the EU elections. Every local council will count their votes independently and declare their own totals, reporting them to the chief counting officer, who will declare a total result once all 32 councils have declared.

In practice I'd expect us to have a fairly clear idea once the first few councils have declared.

[BerwickMad]

In the same way as the EU elections. Every local council will count their votes independently and declare their own totals, reporting them to the chief counting officer, who will declare a total result once all 32 councils have declared.

In practice I'd expect us to have a fairly clear idea once the first few councils have declared.

Ahh. Good stuff. Looking forward to it. Should be a bit quicker than the Euros I suppose. Any idea when the first results will be revealed?

[1320Lichtie]

In the same way as the EU elections. Every local council will count their votes independently and declare their own totals, reporting them to the chief counting officer, who will declare a total result once all 32 councils have declared.

In practice I'd expect us to have a fairly clear idea once the first few councils have declared.

Depends on what councils they are.

[Mr Bairn]

Depends on what councils they are.

Depends on what councils they are.

Well true, but even if we can measure their swings against the 1997 referendum (obviously the entire country will be at least a little less in favour this time) we can paint a pretty good picture. Exit polling will be key.

I'd guess by 2am or so we'll be fairly certain.

[10 CC ICT]

Of the Scottish based people in my office, 6 are No and 1 undecided. No Yes'. 4 of them are from Eyemouth, one Duns and the other Kelso.

It's not an accountancy anyway.

My one vote wouldn't be the difference anyway.

Away from that troll, how will the results be revealed on the night? Will it be by constituency? Region? Or will we only find out once all votes are counted?

Polls will be called as each constituency confirms their count so it'll be an exciting night. (If your a Yes voter)

eta:

Polling for the Scottish Independence Referendum will be held on 18 September

2014. It is the Chief Counting Officer Designate’s intention that following the close

of polls at 10pm Counting Officers (COs) will begin counting the votes. Separate

counts will be held in each local authority area. COs will report local totals to the

Chief Counting Officer Designate (CCO), who will verify them and authorise local

announcements. Local totals will also be announced by the CCO in Edinburgh. A

final declaration of the national result will be made by the CCO following receipt and

verification of all 32 local totals.

Edited August 28, 2014 by 10 CC ICT

[H_B]

Dundee should be the first one to declare, as we already know everyone there is voting Yes.

[ICTChris]

If anyone is worried about poll fixing then the fact that it's local councils who are running the vote should ease your concerns.

I'd imagine if Edinburgh Council tried to fix the poll one way, they'd end up giving the opposite side a landslide.

[Colkitto]

Does anyone believe we will have a good idea who will win before the 18th?

[H_B]

Does anyone believe we will have a good idea who will win before the 18th?

We'll know before the first vote is counted.

Exit polling is extremely accurate.

[Casual Bystander]

Clearly those with the closest votes will take longer as the Bitters desperately spoil papers to get the result they want.

[Casual Bystander]

Exit polling is extremely accurate.

If you wish to be a pendant on other subject then I need to pull you up about that.

Now, I should caveat this with the fact that I think exit polls are more accurate than opinion polls for all the obvious reasons, but they cannot be considered "extremely" accurate. The notable one being the Wisconsin 2012 result which was well off the mark, along with the Indian election also showing a different result to what was actually voted for (the polls suggested a win for Modi but only a close one when it was landslide).

So, more accurate? Yes. Extremely accurate. No.

[Mr Bairn]

Clearly those with the closest votes will take longer as the Bitters desperately spoil papers to get the result they want.

Got any proof of this?

We'll know before the first vote is counted.

Exit polling is extremely accurate.

Exit polling has been fantastic in the last few UK elections, but I don't think it has been used in a Scotland only poll before. Any word on whether the TV networks will eat the costs of producing an exit poll?

Does anyone believe we will have a good idea who will win before the 18th?

I'd say if somehow Yes falls back in the polls towards the low 40's by the date then we can all but call it.

[Dipped Flake]

Got any proof of this?

Exit polling has been fantastic in the last few UK elections, but I don't think it has been used in a Scotland only poll before. Any word on whether the TV networks will eat the costs of producing an exit poll?

I'd say if somehow Yes falls back in the polls towards the low 40's by the date then we can all but call it.

Depends which polls. Agree if it was survation or panelbase then we would be sunk

[H_B]

If you wish to be a pendant on other subject then I need to pull you up about that.

Now, I should caveat this with the fact that I think exit polls are more accurate than opinion polls for all the obvious reasons, but they cannot be considered "extremely" accurate. The notable one being the Wisconsin 2012 result which was well off the mark, along with the Indian election also showing a different result to what was actually voted for (the polls suggested a win for Modi but only a close one when it was landslide).

So, more accurate? Yes. Extremely accurate. No.

Yeah, rather than comparing those in foreign countries, why don't you tell us what Exit Polling suggested for the last General Election, and how that compared to the final result?

[Casual Bystander]

Got any proof of this?

Really?

Yeah, rather than comparing those in foreign countries, why don't you tell us what Exit Polling suggested for the last General Election, and how that compared to the final result?

Yeah, rather than using implicit statements that are not supportable perhaps you should limit your statements to the scope you wish to intend them.

The exit poll for the last general election was spot on, I'm certainly not denying that, however your description that they are "extremely accurate" is simply not supportable unless you are intended to use only one example as your test base.

Edited August 28, 2014 by Casual Bystander

[AUFC90]

Yeah, rather than comparing those in foreign countries, why don't you tell us what Exit Polling suggested for the last General Election, and how that compared to the final result?

Or better yet , why don't you tell us what Exit Polling suggested for the last referendum and how that compared to the final result ?

[H_B]

The exit poll for the last general election was spot on, I'm certainly not denying that, however your description that they are "extremely accurate" is simply not supportable unless you are intended to use only one example as your test base.

Yes, by "extremely accurate" I meant "extremely accurate". Thanks for clarifying that was indeed absolutely correct.