1320Lichtie Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 If a poll showing YES was winning 80/20 appeared I still wouldnt be confident, total one off with a huge turn out, uncallable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Yes, by "extremely accurate" I meant "extremely accurate". Thanks for clarifying that was indeed absolutely correct. So you are basing your claim on one result. That seems an entirely suitable way to look at facts. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 So you are basing your claim on one result. That seems an entirely suitable way to look at facts. Err, no, I'm not. "At the 2001 election, when those methods were used (in prototype form, being only partially developed at that stage) for the first time by the BBC, the size of the Labour majority was predicted at 10pm on polling day with an error of just 6 seats; and at the 2005 and 2010 elections the number of seats for the largest party was predicted with no error at all!" http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Assuming there is Exit polling of course (there was no official EP in the AV Referendum or the last Scottish elections) we will know the end result to within fractions of a percent. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Err, no, I'm not. "At the 2001 election, when those methods were used (in prototype form, being only partially developed at that stage) for the first time by the BBC, the size of the Labour majority was predicted at 10pm on polling day with an error of just 6 seats; and at the 2005 and 2010 elections the number of seats for the largest party was predicted with no error at all!" http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/ Yet I have given more recent examples of them not being extremely accurate. You seem to set yourself up as the 'king of pedantry', but you really don't like it when others do it to you. Still I am sure you will continue to dig away at this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Yet I have given more recent examples of them not being extremely accurate. Yes, from jurisdictions which are not the UK and are therefore completely irrelevant. Still, good to see you keep drinking from the well of fail on this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 (edited) Yes, from jurisdictions which are not the UK and are therefore completely irrelevant. Ah, right, so when you said "extremely accurate" you really meant "extremely accurate but only within the specific restrictions I have failed to mention"? Good, good, so long as we are clear on this. Still, good to see you keep drinking from the well of fail on this. Nothing but subjective nonsense to try and deflect from the facts of the matter. Do keep it up. May I suggest, "you are seething", as your next churlish retort? Edited August 28, 2014 by Casual Bystander 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 If a poll showing YES was winning 80/20 appeared I still wouldnt be confident, total one off with a huge turn out, uncallable. I don't think it's uncallable but I do think that the polls could have a wider margin of error, or the potential to be a bit more out than you'd expect in a 'normal' election. . 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 John Rentoul asked on Twitter the other day what happens if it's a dead heat 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 John Rentoul asked on Twitter the other day what happens if it's a dead heat Taps aff square go between Big Eck and 'call me Dave' Cameron. This could be a P&B sponsored event held at Ruel Street. Sans Maws. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 John Rentoul asked on Twitter the other day what happens if it's a dead heat Should ask Lex what the odds are for that happening. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 (edited) Took a straw poll at a kitchen party last night yes: 0 no: 9 undecided: 0 wont vote: 3 doesnt take a genius to figure out the percentages there I call bullshit on that. There's no way you have 11 friends. Edited August 28, 2014 by DeeTillEhDeh 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Dundee should be the first one to declare, as we already know everyone there is voting Yes. They're not. Chomp's voting No. I'm spoiling. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Survation have a poll coming out tomorrow, published in the Mail and taken on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of this week. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 John Rentoul asked on Twitter the other day what happens if it's a dead heat I had originally thought they would toss a coin like in other elections but in actual fact Yes needs 50% + 1 to win so the status quo would be observed in the event of a dead heat. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Survation have a poll coming out tomorrow, published in the Mail and taken on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Any leaks? Of the polling organisations they usually lean most to Yes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leggy Blonde Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Any leaks? Of the polling organisations they usually lean most to Yes. According to various twitter sources. Yes 47 (+4) No 53 (-4) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 IIRC the last survation poll was a swing away from Yes, sounds like regression to the mean. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sons superhero Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Have heard ICM poll coming out and good for yes 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 NCC types on twitter talking about the "highest ever" polling for yes. What, except for the several other 47-53 polls survation have released over the recent months? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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