DeeTillEhDeh Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Swinney on radio Scotland right now. It's the first time I've really heard him during the campaign. He has been rather anonymous until this week. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 This is what makes me laugh. Project fear. If one side is going to propose something, the other side is going to counter it. I don't see any problem with the No campaign pointing out the negatives of independence. It's not 'project fear', it's realism. Project fear, team Scotland v team Westminister, overly happy presentations and cute kids in superman outfits. It's all that nationalist bollocks to deflect from the issues. There been project fear going on both sides. NO don't have a monopoly on it. It's politics - one side always tries to paint the other as armageddon. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I was looking for a Yes or No answer. The (admittedly thick Dondonian) above seems to be having trouble with the concept of two headlines, both of which are correct. I thought he from East of Dobbies. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banana Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I'm flattered at the attention you seem to want to give me. When you give so much seetheridden material to point and laugh at... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 So the next ICM poll, due tonight is a telephone rather than online poll. Means it'll be hard to get a like for like measurment to previous ICM polls. Secondly, it'll be interesting to see how it stacks up against the only other phone pollster: Ipsos-Mori, traditionally a No friendly pollster - is the 'no friendly' bias of Ipsos based on landline calling meaning they need to substantially upwieght small, statisiticall unrepresnetative samples from certain demographics, or is it something to do with othe rpost processing weighting calculations. my own thoughts would be to brace yourself for another no friendly poll result tonight. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 So the next ICM poll, due tonight is a telephone rather than online poll. Means it'll be hard to get a like for like measurment to previous ICM polls. Did they say why it was telephone this time? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 When you give so much seetheridden material to point and laugh at... Well quite. Yet still you respond, in your own fuming little way. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludo*1 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Telephone polling seems a bit dated. Must be targeting the oldies with this one. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Did they say why it was telephone this time? Probably to ensure they caught more of the older demographic. They love a no lean. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Did they say why it was telephone this time? No, different customer though, there is an ICM for the Scotsman a tthe weekend which I assume wil be online. This is for the Guardian, I imagine telephone polling is a bit more expensive and ICM ones have previously been treated a s abit gold standard in this regard. Also due YouGov tonight, which after their last two efforts probably will show a reversion to the mean, if not worse. We should see how much of Westminster's Sturm und drang has filtered through to the public, but even allowing for that, I'd still expect a reversion to the mean. Expect two bad polls for Yes tonight then chaps. Gonna likely be a rough ride. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodjesSixteenIncher Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Patrick Harvie was on TV last night saying these landline polls largely exclude Yes friendly groups like youngsters and those in more socially deprived groups. Hope there's some truth in that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Patrick Harvie was on TV last night saying these landline polls largely exclude Yes friendly groups like youngsters and those in more socially deprived groups. Hope there's some truth in that. They don't exclude them per say, but they don't find enough of them, so you have small statistical samples that introduce large margins of error, which get multtiplied when your 50 odd 16-24s get's multiplied by more than a factor of 2 to match the Scottish demographic profile. Survation constantly have that problem with 16-24s as well, so you can see the fluctations in that group from poll to poll vs. the more stable (but still changing) older demographics. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Apparently a ComRes poll tonight at 6pm as well.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Patrick Harvie was on TV last night saying these landline polls largely exclude Yes friendly groups like youngsters and those in more socially deprived groups. Hope there's some truth in that. For me the number of people register to vote speaks volumes, I have my doubts most of them have registered to keep the status quo 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludo*1 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 renton, on 11 Sept 2014 - 14:28, said:Apparently a ComRes poll tonight at 6pm as well.... Who are they? What should we expect from them? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 For me the number of people register to vote speaks volumes, I have my doubts most of them have registered to keep the status quo That's a huge assumption though. It could be that a lot of folk who wouldn't have bothered have been galvanised by the very presence of the Yes campaign to step forward and save their beloved union. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 (edited) Who are they? What should we expect from them? It's their first indyRef poll as far as I can tell. wait, no ComRes is only fo rthe South of Scotland. Back down to two bludgeons for us to be hit with tomorrow. Edited September 11, 2014 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BerwickMad Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Man you're rattled. If only you were cheerleading like this after the Yougov poll eh? Sadly you were nowhere to be seen. I'd say that's down to you being a massive shiter. Rattled. Check 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted September 11, 2014 Author Share Posted September 11, 2014 Latest best available odds, according to odds checker: No 1/4 - Ladbrokes Yes 3/1 - Ladbrokes Have a bang on that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 (edited) http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/ITV_Border_South_of_Scotland_Referendum_Poll_11th_September_2014.pdf Short answer, the borders are No in a big way. Edited to add those voting intentions are incredible. 81% "absolutely certain to vote"! Edited September 11, 2014 by dorlomin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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