John Lambies Doos Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Wait until the yes campaign release their smoking gun early sept.. Game, set and match 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 (edited) If, of course, there is reason to suggest that the prior questions in this case are in fact leading in nature. Which is not clear, unlike in the case of the SNP poll, which was abundantly clear. So just to be clear, you're asking me to retract a statement made on 13th May about polls that were presumably, you know, *published* when I made the statement, because of a poll whose data hadn't been fully collected until 15th May, which released its findings on the 18th of May? M'kay. The last time I checked, I wasn't granting warrandice that the statement would be true in the future. You implied all positive no campaign polls were legit. When we both know they've been using leading question tricks like the ICM poll for the Scotland on Sunday. Edited May 19, 2014 by Colkitto 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I wasn't granting warrandice 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 No it isn't. It unequivocally isn't. If you compare Scotland's place in the United Kingdom to that of an abused spouse or an oppressed people, then you should be shamed for it. End of story. The No side get called up plenty for their scaremongering. Hahaha. ^^^ Not by you they dont. Are you trying to oppress the right for people to believe the things they do? Shameful . 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 You implied all positive no campaign polls were legit. When we both know they've been using leading question tricks like the ICM poll for the Scotland on Sunday. Let me explain this thing called "time" to you. If Arnold says on Monday "all of the apples in this basket have been green" then on Thursday Leo puts a red apple in the basket, that doesn't mean Arnold then has to withdraw his statement on Friday. It was true when he said it. Hahaha. ^^^ Not by you they dont. Are you trying to oppress the right for people to believe the things they do? Shameful . I am not denying anyone the right to believe anything. I'm just exercising my right to criticise severely those who say stupid things. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 . I'm just exercising my right to criticise severely those who say stupid things. Let me finish your sentence for you: .... as long as they're Yes supporters. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fotbawmad Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 (edited) By voting No, you are voting to maintain the set up as it exists at present and confirming that you are indeed happy with how things currently are. I know this greatly upsets you, but that's the truth of it. I think the 'no' vote will either be out of fear for their current situation becoming worse. or indoctrination into the current setup. However, it shouldn't be underestimated that non-voters are more likely to be yes voters. I'll definitely make an effort to get my non-voter friends to the polling station. Edited May 19, 2014 by Fotbawmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Let me explain this thing called "time" to you. If Arnold says on Monday "all of the apples in this basket have been green" then on Thursday Leo puts a red apple in the basket, that doesn't mean Arnold then has to withdraw his statement on Friday. It was true when he said it. I am not denying anyone the right to believe anything. I'm just exercising my right to criticise severely those who say stupid things. I shall lookout for you with your placard outside the church NOT of your choice. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todders Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 No it isn't. It unequivocally isn't. If you compare Scotland's place in the United Kingdom to that of an abused spouse or an oppressed people, then you should be shamed for it. End of story. The No side get called up plenty for their scaremongering. There is no guarantee of further devolution post implementation of the 2012 act. So, yes it really is. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 (edited) There is no guarantee of further devolution post implementation of the 2012 act. So, yes it really is.Of course there's no guarantee of more powers. Amazingly enough, the nature of law-making is that you can't guarantee laws will pass. It doesn't mean that rejecting one of the alternatives is the same as endorsing the status quo.Voting No is not endorsing the status quo. You may have arrived at a judgment that it facilitates the status quo. That sentiment is the main reason behind my Yes vote, as I seem to have re-iterated for what must be the hundredth time on here. But motives and effects are different. If people think there will be further devolution in the event of a No vote, and more than a third of voters do believe there will be more powers, then they are not voting for the status quo. They are voting only against independence. If you insist on inhabiting a binary world don't be surprised when people who don't conform to it are critical of you. Edited May 20, 2014 by Ad Lib 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Let me explain this thing called "time" to you. If Arnold says on Monday "all of the apples in this basket have been green" then on Thursday Leo puts a red apple in the basket, that doesn't mean Arnold then has to withdraw his statement on Friday. It was true when he said it. My point is you stated all polls favouring the No side were legit. We both know that wasn't the case and the ICM poll proved that. I said you should retract your comments as it was basically bollocks and the proof was there with the latest poll that they do indeed get up to manipulation of polls. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Colkitto hasn't been along to rubbish the poll yet and attack ICM. Will be happening shortly I'm sure. If the Scotsman has to manipulate polls by asking a leading question it probably means that the No campaign is not that far ahead as they would like us to believe. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 My point is you stated all polls favouring the No side were legit. We both know that wasn't the case and the ICM poll proved that. I said you should retract your comments as it was basically bollocks and the proof was there with the latest poll that they do indeed get up to manipulation of polls. If the Scotsman has to manipulate polls by asking a leading question it probably means that the No campaign is not that far ahead as they would like us to believe. Couldn't agree more: http://wingsoverscotland.com/bending-truth-until-it-breaks/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 So we're back to the old tricks of not asking the referendum question first? I'm sure HB will come down on this dodgy poll with a ton of bricks! And I hope Ad Lib now retracts this statement "From memory, pretty much all other polls have been legitimate". And after yesterday's pretence that you aren't in fact a comical busted flush of a poster... we get this 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 You implied all positive no campaign polls were legit. When we both know they've been using leading question tricks like the ICM poll for the Scotland on Sunday. What was leading about this question? Be very specific. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 What was leading about this question? Be very specific. Well the referendum question was asked as the third question, not the first. One of the questions "Thinking about the referendum on independence for Scotland, do you feel comfortable or uncomfortable being asked which way you might vote?" That is intended to influence their reaction to the independence question making them feel uncomfortable about being asked. Why did ICM change methodology from their last poll? Did they not like the results they got last time? People like you are being duped into believing the No side are so far ahead they are on course to victory. If they resort to this sort of manipulation then it doesn't take a genius to work out they are not. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 (edited) That is intended to influence their reaction to the independence question making them feel uncomfortable about being asked. Is it? In what way? Are you a psephologist now? And in what way does this favour either Yes or No? Edited May 20, 2014 by H_B 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Why did ICM change methodology from their last poll? Did they not like the results they got last time? Oops Even so, in John Curtice’s analysis he suggests that ICM have changed their approach to turnout in this poll, and that it would have been even worse for YES on their old method. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 I think the ukpollingreport analysis is very fair, and correct. "My perception is still that there was a tightening in the polls at the tail end of last year after the white paper, and a very slow trend towards YES since then. The trend may well have slowed or stopped completely in recent weeks, but the single ICM poll or the normal variation in Panelbase is not enough to conclude it has reversed." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Oops Even so, in John Curtice’s analysis he suggests that ICM have changed their approach to turnout in this poll, and that it would have been even worse for YES on their old method. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ The datasets for ICM's referendum poll have been published, and as a result it's become clear that the methodological changes have gone way beyond the one flagged up by John Curtice and trailed by Martin Boon last month, namely the introduction of a likelihood to vote filter. In the April poll from ICM that produced a virtual dead heat (a No lead of just 3%), the referendum question was asked first. But in this new poll showing a bigger 12% No lead, the referendum question was asked third - which ought to set alarm bells ringing immediately, because we know that responses to later questions can be substantially influenced by the wording of earlier ones. Indeed, John Curtice has spent a fair bit of the last few months rubbishing a poll conducted last summer by the BPC-affiliated firm Panelbase, simply on the basis that it asked the referendum question third. That poll of course showed Yes in a 1% lead. A few cynics might wonder why he pounced on methodological bad practice in a poll that showed movement towards Yes (and in retrospect he was probably right to do so, because it was completely out of line with other polls), but hasn't said a word about the same problem in a poll that appears to show a favourable trend for No. http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/concerns-mount-over-icms-sudden-change.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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