Ad Lib Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Am I correct in thinking that polling from the day or two before the 2011 election was predicting an snp majority or was that the exit polling? I seem to recall some discussion on the day that it was possible but was dismissed as fanciful. The SNP were in the lead, in the constituency polling at least, in some polls as early as 28th March (YouGov) and were on track for a comfortable win in both constituency and list polling by 9th April. In the final fortnight of polling they consistently had a lead of more than 10 points in both the constituency and list polling, with some giving them as high as 15-18. They ended up with a 17 point victory. The pollsters were not, as the Nats on here like to pretend, "caught out" by this. They tracked a big swing that actually happened as Labour's campaign capitulated. The overwhelming majority of that swing happened between 2 and 4 weeks of polling day and not last minute. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I quite like Annoni's new shtick that anything less than a 20 point defeat is actually a win. Its going to be the way the Nats spin the defeat. So you might as well give it a run out early. Its like the Ramsdens Cup of excuses Well for a start i'm not a Nat. It's obviously not a defeat, i didn't say it would be, but if no win by a narrow margin and i believe anything under the 60% mark is narrow is still a bad reflection on the union. I suspected you're just looking for an argument for the attention you desperately crave on here 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ira Gaines Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Well for a start i'm not a Nat. It's obviously not a defeat, i didn't say it would be, but if no win by a narrow margin and i believe anything under the 60% mark is narrow is still a bad reflection on the union. I suspected you're just looking for an argument for the attention you desperately crave on here. You seem more than happy to give him it, even when you probably shouldn't. Plenty of others are now deciding to ignore. There's a reason for that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 The SNP were in the lead, in the constituency polling at least, in some polls as early as 28th March (YouGov) and were on track for a comfortable win in both constituency and list polling by 9th April. In the final fortnight of polling they consistently had a lead of more than 10 points in both the constituency and list polling, with some giving them as high as 15-18. They ended up with a 17 point victory. The pollsters were not, as the Nats on here like to pretend, "caught out" by this. They tracked a big swing that actually happened as Labour's campaign capitulated. The overwhelming majority of that swing happened between 2 and 4 weeks of polling day and not last minute. That is not true though. As Mike Smithson made the point. He is a neutral. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 That is not true though. As Mike Smithson made the point. He is a neutral. How were they "caught out" if the polls had the SNP winning comfortably a whole month before the election? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 How were they "caught out" if the polls had the SNP winning comfortably a whole month before the election? Examples please, of at least 5 different polls, exactly a month before the election, showing the SNP winning "comfortably". Either that or GTF. You decide. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joozy Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Examples please, of at least 5 different polls, exactly a month before the election, showing the SNP winning "comfortably". Either that or GTF. You decide. You're always very quick to demand arbitrary numbers of proof points aren't you Cuntydemus. I'm still waiting for some evidence to prove that Atos has driven thousands of people to suicide. Please be very specific. -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ira Gaines Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Cuntydemus. Tragic. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joozy Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Tragic. Not as tragic as the stalling yes campaign, less than 10 weeks to poll time and no inroads being made at all. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Examples please, of at least 5 different polls, exactly a month before the election, showing the SNP winning "comfortably". Either that or GTF. You decide. I never claimed there were 5 polls a month before the election showing that. I spoke of the polls collectively. The poll published in the Daily Mail taken by Scottish Opinion a month before the election, in early April, showed the SNP with a 10 point lead in the constituency vote and a 1 point lead in the list vote. That would have translated into a comfortable victory. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Can people please please stop feeding the bloody trolls. They just f**k the thread up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P45 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Which one do you think is Ad Lib? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I always wonder when the BT camp go to areas with poverty, what do they say to people to try and convince them a no vote is the best for them 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Which one do you think is Ad Lib? It's obviously the guy you can't quite see for the auld guy in the checked shirt. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Which one do you think is Ad Lib? How dare you suggest that I'd allow myself to be seen south of the Clyde. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 You're always very quick to demand arbitrary numbers of proof points aren't you Cuntydemus. I'm still waiting for some evidence to prove that Atos has driven thousands of people to suicide. Please be very specific. 1) You're a bit thick if you can't see the excessive demands are apeing those of H_B and Ad Lib. 2) Cuntydemus? Cringe. 3) Feel free to make light of ATOS' work whilst simultaneously turning a blind eye. Shows what a stand up guy you are. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 (edited) I always wonder when the BT camp go to areas with poverty, what do they say to people to try and convince them a no vote is the best for them You'll loose your pension, Scotland wouldn't be able to keep up the public services you get now, iScotland will have to raise taxes, removing trident will leave the door open to ISIS... we'd be like Somalia... family in N. Ireland, Wales or England? You'll be a foreigner... border posts etc. My sister goes to USA all the time pretty much, she's working there atm. She told my confirmed No voting dad that she'll vote yet because the USA will have an embassy in Edinburgh in iScotland and she wont have to keep going to London to get a visa. Think she's pretty much still undecided though. Another reason to vote yes imo. Edited July 12, 2014 by Enigma 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Well for a start i'm not a Nat. It's obviously not a defeat, i didn't say it would be, but if no win by a narrow margin and i believe anything under the 60% mark is narrow is still a bad reflection on the union. I suspected you're just looking for an argument for the attention you desperately crave on here A 20 point margin would be enormous and utterly convincing. It won't be anything like that. Even 55/45 would be a terrible result for the Nats. I've consistently been forecasting around 52 or 53 versus 48 or 47. I think that will be on the money. If No win by 10 points that will be a bitter blow for the SNP. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Don't be tempted to respond Enrico. A blanket rubbering is what's needed here. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I do particularly like the 'why will the SNP be in power? ' line from the very same people who punt the Tories /UKip kind for Westminster as if it was a Nap rather than a highly improbable scenario 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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