Ira Gaines Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 See if you're going to respond to him, can you at least have the decency not to quote his shite? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 (edited) One thing we can be confident of, thank heavens, is that the sort of people who are behind Radical Independence will not be in power in Scotland at any point in the future, with or without independence. LibDems in power. Thay are the real fringe loonies. Mind Lembit Opik? Edited July 12, 2014 by HaikuHibee 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kejan Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Poll out later tonight. Imagine it'll be the mothly Scoltand on Sunday poll? McDougall of BT tweeted about it and not a peep from anyone on the yes side, so no doubt positive for the No campaign. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Examples please, of at least 5 different polls, exactly a month before the election, showing the SNP winning "comfortably". Either that or GTF. You decide. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 so there is a pro- NO poll in the Scotsman on Sunday. Counters the Survation poll then. The SoS poll for last 6 months: June: 36-43-21 (46-54) May: 34-46-20 (43-57) April: 39-42-19 (48-52) March: 39-46-15 (46-54) February: 37-49-14 (43-57) January: 37-44-19 (46-54) A "good" poll for No would be returning to the May figures and a large drop in undecideds, imo 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I'm surprised the SNP haven't bought another Panelbase poll for themselves yet. Maybe saving that for September 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Fair doo's. Am I right in thinking the methodology has been constantly changing with the pollster? I'm not 100% sure but given that they're all within the margin off error of 45-55, I'd guess not. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 From Twitter, the front page of tomorrow's Scotland on Sunday appears to be leading with a poll showing more voters trust Westminster to deliver more powers than before. Nothing on the numbers of that or indeed the poll itself yet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 They are showing higher numbers of DK in recent months, which is rather strange and at odds with other pollsters. The 2 polls in the last few days have shown big falls in DKs, I'd imagine that will continue tomorrow. My guess is 36-49-15 (42-58). Maybe that's a bit extreme but that's the kind of result McDougall would celebrate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 The 2 polls in the last few days have shown big falls in DKs, I'd imagine that will continue tomorrow. My guess is 36-49-15 (42-58). Maybe that's a bit extreme but that's the kind of result McDougall would celebrate. A Tory paper. My bet is no change in polls. Headline is weasly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Whoa. I know all about random errors but even if you give the full 3% variation to yes it would still be a very disappointing result. The thing I'm most interested to see is the undecided figures. It could be that yes has held up and we've just seen a large swing from undecided to no. You'd be looking at a 5.5% swing from DK to NO if yes hold firm at 36% Either way it's quite a worrying result for the progressives. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 (edited) Yes 34, No 45. No idea what that is with the DKs stripped out (which I'm not a fan of, personally). Edited July 12, 2014 by Michael W 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 It is an ICM poll compared to the one conducted a month ago, which spat out 35:43:22 we have Yes 34 (-1) No 45 (+2) DK 21 (-1) Excluding DKs gives a 57 plays 43 compared with 55 plays 45 last month. These figures place July roughly where May was (34:46:20) and are better for No than the April figures (39:42:19). http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-shows-stalling-yes-vote-1-3474916 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 The no percentage seems solid at mid forties. Yes need to Hoover up almost all of the undecideds between now and polling day. Now that's very feasible, because there's a reason these people haven't made their minds up, but it's a big ask. Im guessting if there was no over round the odds should be yes 4/1 no 1/5 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 It is an ICM poll compared to the one conducted a month ago, which spat out 35:43:22 we have Yes 34 (-1) No 45 (+2) DK 21 (-1) Excluding DKs gives a 57 plays 43 compared with 55 plays 45 last month. These figures place July roughly where May was (34:46:20) and are better for No than the April figures (39:42:19). http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-shows-stalling-yes-vote-1-3474916 For the three main reasons for voting No, what % of the No vote would make up each? 1- I'm allright jack. 2- I'm feart. 3- I'm british. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I'm guessing 60-30-10? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lichtgilphead Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 The no percentage seems solid at mid forties. Yes need to Hoover up almost all of the undecideds between now and polling day. Now that's very feasible, because there's a reason these people haven't made their minds up, but it's a big ask. Im guessting if there was no over round the odds should be yes 4/1 no 1/5 Is it you that claims to be doing maths at uni? If there's no overround, the odds have to add up to 100%. The odds you quote add up to 103.33%.. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joozy Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 The no percentage seems solid at mid forties. Yes need to Hoover up almost all of the undecideds between now and polling day. Now that's very feasible, because there's a reason these people haven't made their minds up, but it's a big ask. Im guessting if there was no over round the odds should be yes 4/1 no 1/5 No overround with a no vote at 83% CoS and yes at 20% CoS. Very good. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendan Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 (edited) 1- I'm allright jack.2- I'm feart.3- I'm british. They're not really mutually exclusive, are they? Edited July 13, 2014 by bendan 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Yes down 2% and No up 2% in ICM s poll. Let the discrediting commence. Not to worry though as Stewart Hosie must know something. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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