Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Confidemus]

Think there will be a lot of "neighs" now that Devo max has been declared a non runner

As long as people hoof it along to polling stations, I think Yes will canter it. I wouldn't want to be saddled with a No vote. Oats a horrible outcome, but hay, what do I know?

I can't apologise enough.

[thepundit]

A mini surge being all the Yes camp need if two or the pollsters are to be believed.

Or if Radical Independence are to be believed, Yes is already way out in the lead on 57%.

According to a Tweet an angry Nationalist sent me yesterday anyway after I celebrated No increasing it's lead even further.

[H_B]

A mini surge being all the Yes camp need if two or the pollsters are to be believed.

Edited to add: Most interesting/strange findings from the ICM poll is they believe more woman (44%) will vote Yes - compared with men at (43%)

I mean more in the overall gap.

If you look at the Poll of Polls stuff, you'll see the gap has at best for Yes narrowed to just below 10. And it's started climbing again. Up another couple of points since then.

The Yes campaign will be gutted by the last month or so poll wise.

[H_B]

That's an absolutely massive lead.

No would bite your hand off for half that lead on the day if polling.

They won't admit it but I bet you BT are stunned by how well No is polling at present.

[H_B]

I know, and I think the poll of polls stuff to be a reflection on reality.

I don't like the weighting of panelbase, survation etc. But I also don't like the methodology of Yougov.

Personally I believe ICM to be the most credible pollster.

However, I'm very surprised that from a largish survey (1000+) they are finding Women more likely to vote yes. Kinda strange ?

I agree. That is very unusual.

[thepundit]

Some 'Radical' doesn't speak for the whole campaign.

A No vote is without question the most likely outcome, but its far from a certainty. Averaging the polls gives us about 44 plays 56. While a 6% swing is unlikely, this is still a close run thing and a Yes victory isn't impossible as some 'Radical' unionists might make us believe.

It's far from being a certainty, the people still need to actually vote after all.

But I'm more certain of victory than I was earlier in 2014. I'll admit, you's had me worried for a while but the momentum has been with No ever since and the gap is very comfortable.

[Ira Gaines]

That's Colkitto and Auld G added to the list of posters to just scroll right past.

[Colkitto]

They won't admit it but I bet you BT are stunned by how well No is polling at present.

Eh? They have the full backing of the British media

And again it depends what pollster you believe. Where did the No camp start in the polls again?

[ayrmad]

It's far from being a certainty, the people still need to actually vote after all.

But I'm more certain of victory than I was earlier in 2014. I'll admit, you's had me worried for a while but the momentum has been with No ever since and the gap is very comfortable.

Where are you getting all these feelings from, a year ago I knew nobody that was voting YES, I never heard anyone mentioning YES, now I know and hear lots of YES voters.

These pollsters are polling the same sort of people they've always polled, Kellner wouldn't be able to spout his stuff about their previous voting patterns if he hadn't had contact with them over many years.

[H_B]

My memory isn't what it was, but weren't you claiming a short while back that there was some massive gamechanging information the Nats had that they were keeping under their hats?

I love claims like that.

[thepundit]

Ayrmad, you may speak to "a lot" of people who are Yes supporters but is it more than 1 in 3?

I'd say no and that the polls are reasonably consistent with the general consensus in Scotland.

[HaikuHibee]

Well, thank f**k for that. With that kind of endorsement, lets all vote Tory.

[placidcasual]

I think it's still a 24 horse race.

It wasn't really funny the first time.

[Lex]

When I meet yes voters now, I find it hard not to deal with them in a purely condescending patronising manner.

' On you go laddie, if that's what you believe in, you go and vote yes '

* Tap on head *

**Snigger**

[Kejan]

When I meet yes voters now, I find it hard not to deal with them in a purely condescending patronising manner.

' On you go laddie, if that's what you believe in, you go and vote yes '

* Tap on head *

**Snigger**

This referendum is a two horse race. Or is it?

[Blaven]

When I meet yes voters now, I find it hard not to deal with them in a purely condescending patronising manner.

' On you go laddie, if that's what you believe in, you go and vote yes '

* Tap on head *

**Snigger**

That will be your "colonial britnat syndrome" thats prevalent among your kind, taking over you.

No need to worry, as its not contagious and will never spread to the anyone else.

One bad side effect though is that you will come across as a bit of a w****r to the general public.

[ayrmad]

My memory isn't what it was, but weren't you claiming a short while back that there was some massive gamechanging information the Nats had that they were keeping under their hats?

I love claims like that.

I can only post what I hear, if nothing has surfaced by voting day you can at least gain some succour from that when you're licking your wounds the day after.

Ayrmad, you may speak to "a lot" of people who are Yes supporters but is it more than 1 in 3?

I'd say no and that the polls are reasonably consistent with the general consensus in Scotland.

I speak to more YES voters than I do NO voters, I also speak to more Tories than I do Labourites, so while the polls are indicative of those people they choose to ask they are not representative of those I speak to.

Finding Tories voting YES in the polls is like searching for hens teeth yet I can find them quite easily, perhaps Tories that join these polling companies aren't representative of Tory voters as a whole.

[Jamaldo]

Still laughing at the "silent majority" bollocks from a week or so ago.

In what other circumstances would a person whose viewpoint is shared by the vast majority (allegedly) of people be scared to speak out about their voting intentions? It is simply rubbish.

In my opinion the "silent" section of the electorate are the people who are undecided or who can't be bothered with any of it.

[thepundit]

I speak to more YES voters than I do NO voters, I also speak to more Tories than I do Labourites, so while the polls are indicative of those people they choose to ask they are not representative of those I speak to.

So you speak to more Yes voters than you do to No voter AND most of them are Conservatives?

I don't believe you.

Hey, I'm sure there's a few Conservative voters who are indeed in favour of independence but A) Their party would become even more of an irrelevance in Scotland, B) They are amongst the most pro-Unionist of voters and C) They are likely to be happy with things as they are.

So it's hard to believe you speak to a lot of Tory Yes supporters. I've never even met one or spoken to one online who favours Scottish independence.

Also, if most of the people you speak to are Yes supporters, be they Scottish National Party supporters, Labour or whatever you must be speaking to people who are mostly not financially well off. Just where do all the Conservatives you speak to come into all that?....

It just doesn't make sense.

[ayrmad]

So you speak to more Yes voters than you do to No voter AND most of them are Conservatives?

I don't believe you.

Hey, I'm sure there's a few Conservative voters who are indeed in favour of independence but A) Their party would become even more of an irrelevance in Scotland, B) They are amongst the most pro-Unionist of voters and C) They are likely to be happy with things as they are.

So it's hard to believe you speak to a lot of Tory Yes supporters. I've never even met one or spoken to one online who favours Scottish independence.

Also, if most of the people you speak to are Yes supporters, be they Scottish National Party supporters, Labour or whatever you must be speaking to people who are mostly not financially well off. Just where do all the Conservatives you speak to come into all that?....

It just doesn't make sense.

I speak to people with their own businesses, I'd hazard a guess that a fair % of Business for Scotland's 2,200 members are Tory voters, I'm not talking about blue rinsers I'm talking about people who see opportunities in independence rather than your typical conservative Tory voters.