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Latest Polls and Latest Odds


Lex

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This is what makes me laugh. Project fear. If one side is going to propose something, the other side is going to counter it. I don't see any problem with the No campaign pointing out the negatives of independence. It's not 'project fear', it's realism.

Project fear, team Scotland v team Westminister, overly happy presentations and cute kids in superman outfits. It's all that nationalist bollocks to deflect from the issues.

There been project fear going on both sides. NO don't have a monopoly on it.

It's politics - one side always tries to paint the other as armageddon.

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So the next ICM poll, due tonight is a telephone rather than online poll. Means it'll be hard to get a like for like measurment to previous ICM polls.

Secondly, it'll be interesting to see how it stacks up against the only other phone pollster: Ipsos-Mori, traditionally a No friendly pollster - is the 'no friendly' bias of Ipsos based on landline calling meaning they need to substantially upwieght small, statisiticall unrepresnetative samples from certain demographics, or is it something to do with othe rpost processing weighting calculations.

my own thoughts would be to brace yourself for another no friendly poll result tonight.

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So the next ICM poll, due tonight is a telephone rather than online poll. Means it'll be hard to get a like for like measurment to previous ICM polls.

Did they say why it was telephone this time?

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Did they say why it was telephone this time?

No, different customer though, there is an ICM for the Scotsman a tthe weekend which I assume wil be online. This is for the Guardian, I imagine telephone polling is a bit more expensive and ICM ones have previously been treated a s abit gold standard in this regard.

Also due YouGov tonight, which after their last two efforts probably will show a reversion to the mean, if not worse. We should see how much of Westminster's Sturm und drang has filtered through to the public, but even allowing for that, I'd still expect a reversion to the mean.

Expect two bad polls for Yes tonight then chaps. Gonna likely be a rough ride.

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Patrick Harvie was on TV last night saying these landline polls largely exclude Yes friendly groups like youngsters and those in more socially deprived groups. Hope there's some truth in that.

They don't exclude them per say, but they don't find enough of them, so you have small statistical samples that introduce large margins of error, which get multtiplied when your 50 odd 16-24s get's multiplied by more than a factor of 2 to match the Scottish demographic profile. Survation constantly have that problem with 16-24s as well, so you can see the fluctations in that group from poll to poll vs. the more stable (but still changing) older demographics.

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Patrick Harvie was on TV last night saying these landline polls largely exclude Yes friendly groups like youngsters and those in more socially deprived groups. Hope there's some truth in that.

For me the number of people register to vote speaks volumes, I have my doubts most of them have registered to keep the status quo

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For me the number of people register to vote speaks volumes, I have my doubts most of them have registered to keep the status quo

That's a huge assumption though. It could be that a lot of folk who wouldn't have bothered have been galvanised by the very presence of the Yes campaign to step forward and save their beloved union.

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Who are they? What should we expect from them?

It's their first indyRef poll as far as I can tell.

wait, no ComRes is only fo rthe South of Scotland.

Back down to two bludgeons for us to be hit with tomorrow.

Edited by renton
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