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Latest Polls and Latest Odds


Lex

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Excellent figures for the Scottish economy in the context of a supportive union which endorses the need to retain it. Thanks for this.

Well you might have read that, but it's clear you didn't understand it if you think that it means a union is the only thing providing the support for the economy.

What is abundantly clear though is the fact that Scotland would in no way be the basket case that some in the media are painting it, should it decide to become independent. And that is the clear message that needs to be put forward. The fear mongering and doom merchantry is all smoke and mirrors.

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If you can read between Curice's obvious seethe... http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps/

No mention of them being closest on the 2011 AV referendum in that blog entry that's for sure, although with a bit of googling it turns out that was with a telephone poll and a sample size of 1035.

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Panelbase's poll was done purely online was it not? I wouldn't be so sure that it'll be a terrible result for the Yes side, don't think Yes will be ahead but don't think it'll be as 'comfy' as the other two polls favouring No today. Not long till we find out I suppose.

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Which flies in the face of other pollsters who have roundly admitted that the undecideds have been favouring the Yes. While I wouldn't count them as a Yes, that poll seems to show these voters as split 50/50.

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It's worth remembering that the two sub polls will have sample sizes less than half the size of the original poll.

So a second pinch of salt might be in order on top of the one you should take as standard

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So is the yes 54 bollocks? Can't find anything about it apart from a random twitter account

How much to you trust Curtice?

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps/

Bearing in mind he is a loyalist sympathiser, who really doesn't like putting forward a positive case for the Yes vote (as can be seen from the tear stained blog). Now would he be publishing an article implicitly stating a huge Yes lead if it was not true?

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It's worth remembering that the two sub polls will have sample sizes less than half the size of the original poll.

So a second pinch of salt might be in order on top of the one you should take as standard

We wont know if the likely unusually high turn out will have been effectively captured by polling weightings until the polls close and the exits are released.

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So is the yes 54 bollocks? Can't find anything about it apart from a random twitter account

Nope.

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/

Saturday, September 13, 2014 Yes campaign open up eight-point lead in stunning poll from "gold standard" ICM

New ICM poll :

Yes 54% (+9)

No 46% (-9)

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How much to you trust Curtice?

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps/

Bearing in mind he is a loyalist sympathiser, who really doesn't like putting forward a positive case for the Yes vote (as can be seen from the tear stained blog). Now would he be publishing an article implicitly stating a huge Yes lead if it was not true?

Is the telegraph so seething that they aren't advertising their paper because they don't want to announce a yes lead? You would think that would be a headline announcement rather than having to go searching blogs to find it.

He links to the article btw. This is really important, no matter how unreliable the polls are it shows that we won't be frightened into voting no. I was genuinely fearing that there would be a poll out showing us at under 45 and demoralising the campaign.

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Which flies in the face of other pollsters who have roundly admitted that the undecideds have been favouring the Yes. While I wouldn't count them as a Yes, that poll seems to show these voters as split 50/50.

Although that would suggest that more of the current pool of Yes voters are recent arrivals who were "Don't know"s until recently.

They could be expected to be less certain and that would explain the result

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So is the yes 54 bollocks? Can't find anything about it apart from a random twitter account

It's for real if Curtice is talking about it and appears to have been commissioned by the Sunday Telegraph, who I suspect may be burying it a bit for ideological reasons. The concern about sample size if a bit overblown in statistics terms in Curtice's blog entry given it means a 4% margin of error rather than a 3% one. It all boils down to whether you think telephone or internet surveys are likely to be more accurate. Think the latter is likely to be better at reaching younger voters given its older people that will tend to have a landline nowadays.

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