Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Nah. As I alluded to in another thread, it's publicity. The odds have always been so ludicrously short on a No vote, they've probably made next to no net loss. Nothing is changed. Still all to play for. Still going to be a Yes win. Betfair have made a loss on this, but as my post above suggests, this looks very much like writing off a loss in lieu of a donation to his beloved Conservative Party. I have posted on here a couple of times about the odds being offered on the referendum. Whether people choose to read between the lines(And I made it as easy as I could) is up to them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Betfair have made a loss on this, but as my post above suggests, this looks very much like writing off a loss in lieu of a donation to his beloved Conservative Party. I have posted on here a couple of times about the odds being offered on the referendum. Whether people choose to read between the lines(And I made it as easy as I could) is up to them. Yep - The founder of Betfair was an MOD contractor before he left to start betfair and is the grandson of a tory MP. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Bojangles Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Business decision. They will hope many place bets back on, this time to yes They'll be paying out a lot if it's a yes. Pretending it's already over to get people disheartened wouldn't be a terrible strategy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) They'll be paying out a lot if it's a yes. Pretending it's already over to get people disheartened wouldn't be a terrible strategy. The bookies will be paying out far more in the event of a No vote than they will in the event of a Yes vote. A yes vote will make the industry a healthy profit. A no vote will result in at least 6 figure losses. Edited September 16, 2014 by Ross. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Bojangles Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) The bookies will be paying out far more in the event of a No vote than they will in the event of a Yes vote. Really? Higher odds, and there's apparently been more put on yes than no according to oddschecker. (Actually just checked and it's the popularity of the bets rather than the £'s) Edited September 16, 2014 by Mr. Bojangles 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Really? Higher odds, and there's apparently been more put on yes than no according to oddschecker. (Actually just checked and it's the popularity of the bets rather than the £'s) The odds for this were not worked out based on probability. There was a strategic decision made to offer "No" at very short odds with the expectancy of flushing out big stakes south of the border who wanted a good return on a short term investment on something that was seen by many as an almost certain outcome. That is exactly what has happened. Bookies exist to make money. If there is a yes vote, they will make money. That is all I am saying on it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adamski Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If Betfair really were doing this to help the No campaign then surely it would be counter-productive. Send the message that it's a done deal, give some potential No voters a reason not to make the effort to vote, and let Yes sneak in through the back door? Nah, whatever the reasoning is it'll be to do with maximising profits for the bookmaker, not about politics. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Is there a new poll out at 5??? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the jambo-rocker Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Aye but that 5% commission will well hurt on them odds. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
La_Leyenda Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I see bet fair have decided it's all over: now paying out on a no vote. Are they not paying out 1/4 of the odds though, ie similar to the live in-betting football where you can cash in early at reduced odds? I'm pretty sure I read this will only cost them £40,000, which is a decent price to pay for all the publicity they're getting from it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Bookies exist to make money. If there is a yes vote, they will make money. That is all I am saying on it. This isn't true at all. If it's a No vote they will make money. Although there have been large amounts placed on No, there are at very short odds. The liabilities are relatively low. There have been plenty of mug money on a Yes vote. I expect they will profit regardless. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 This isn't true at all. If it's a No vote they will make money. Although there have been large amounts placed on No, there are at very short odds. The liabilities are relatively low. There have been plenty of mug money on a Yes vote. I expect they will profit regardless. You'd be surprised. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banana Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) Final polls... TNS-BMRB: 5pm TuesdayICM: Tuesday nightIpsos Mori: Wednesday nightYouGov - Wednesday nightSurvation - Wednesday nightOpinium - Wednesday nightPanelbase - Wednesday night Each organisation's most recent poll (Yes-No): TNS-BMRB: 49-51ICM: 54-46Ipsos Mori (Aug 3): 43-57 YouGov: 47-53Survation: 47-53Opinium: 48-52 Panelbase: 49-51 Edited September 16, 2014 by banana 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The odds for this were not worked out based on probability. There was a strategic decision made to offer "No" at very short odds What absolute nonsense. This will be like the "strategic" decision to offer Liverpool at very short odds to beat Ludogorets. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SweeperDee Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 http://emeraldnewsnetwork.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/something-fishy-in-the-scottish-polls/ An Irish take on the polls and bias in the mainstream media. -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC92 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) Super-accurate window sticker poll from being out and about in Aberdeen today: Yes - 33 (78.5%) No - 9 (21.5%) Edited September 16, 2014 by DC92 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If Betfair really were doing this to help the No campaign then surely it would be counter-productive. Send the message that it's a done deal, give some potential No voters a reason not to make the effort to vote, and let Yes sneak in through the back door? Nah, whatever the reasoning is it'll be to do with maximising profits for the bookmaker, not about politics. Have you seen the state of the BT campaign so far? Why would it surprise you if they made another horrendous strategy call? It's a bit of everything I think. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 What absolute nonsense. This will be like the "strategic" decision to offer Liverpool at very short odds to beat Ludogorets. You can disagree if you want. I trust what I have heard on this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 You can disagree if you want. I trust what I have heard on this. You are wrong. I can't make it any more simple than that. The reason No started at very very low odds before a word was shouted is because No was massively the most likely result. It is that simple. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 You are wrong. I can't make it any more simple than that. The reason No started at very very low odds before a word was shouted is because No was massively the most likely result. It is that simple. I posted on this yesterday or the day before. I can't be bothered adding to it. I trust what I have heard on this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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