About the price of oil in the White Paper........

[H_B]

Compared to the UK economy oil IS a bonus. Even with no oil whatsoever we are still level with the shitey UK economy and their shitey current account deficit would almost double without us. The UK have proved over the last 40 years that they cannot be trusted to steward our natural resources or spend our money properly on things that don't just benefit London.

I'll be expecting to hear from your bigoted brain, on this thread, in March 2016.

Another gem of a contribution.

[strichener]

I thought you said Socialists.

The SNP are a centre right party. They are not Socialists.

Well i didn't.

[H_B]

Well i didn't.

Right, glad we've cleared that up.

But yes, along with their other gifts to the rich, the SNP did indeed plan to enrich the already wealthy with a CT cut.

[AUFC90]

Another gem of a contribution.

I planned to block you the last time I was on because I have no time for trolls. Thanks for reminding me. You are now in the same company as Banterous, Clarkston and Jock Tool. Well done you.

ETA, Reynard may be a bit of cnut but he's not a troll. He can stay.

Off you pop and thank f**k for that.

[H_B]

I planned to block you the last time I was on because I have no time for trolls. Thanks for reminding me. You are now in the same company as Banterous, Clarkston and Jock Tool. Well done you.

ETA, Reynard may be a bit of cnut but he's not a troll. He can stay.

Off you pop and thank f**k for that.

I keep hoping, rather like monkeys with Shakespeare, that if you continue to post, at one point you'll make a contribution that isn't the posting equivalnet of licking the window.

Still waiting, and I expect to be waiting a while.

[Jacksgranda]

THe SNP apparently.

Havent heard a single thing from them pressing the government for this all the same. I reckon its just a figment of Strickens fevered imagination.

Still waiting for Parp and Wizbit to explain how 11% of the Scottish economy is a "bonus".

It wasn't a "bonus" it was an "extra".

Obviously the SNP's calculations were based only on the 89% of the economy that wasn't oil.

Or something.

[H_B]

It wasn't a "bonus" it was an "extra".

Obviously the SNP's calculations were based only on the 89% of the economy that wasn't oil.

Or something.

Without oil, we'd just be the 3rd richest country in the world.

Or something.

[renton]

The one year projection is currently $52 a barrel.

The old Swinney tactic.

We dont have to worry about it because we have the protection of the utterly huge UK economy

Well the people in the industry still do, regardless they are still losing their jobs after all, depsite the massive and benevolently great UK economy.

The fact is that without oil, the Scottish eocnomy is still 99% of UK average, there is no doubt however that the exposure of the wider economy is greater in Scotland than the entire UK to the fluctuating oil prices. Regardless of constitutional position however, the industry and it's wider supply chain is under massive pressure. It seems to me that those parts of the economy in Scotland exposed to falling oil prices still would be, regardless of government - and that's the major issue here. The only thing the wider Union gets us is a stability in currency which otherwise might tumble more given oil froms a smaller part of the overall UK economy (which is still incredibly exposed itself to shocks in the finance sector - which can be as volatile as any crude price). Then again, under a currency union, the pound would strill be relatively stable, even with falling oil prices.

Against that, the Scottish government, after indy wanted to build an oil fund to help insulate the country from such shocks, so it's not like it wasn't thinking about these things, and the UK government has had decades to set one up, and hasn't. That seems to me a massive dereliction of duty on their part. There is no doubt also, that regardless of when a notional indy date was set, we were going to be vulnerable to this until some kind of fund could be set up, that's just unavoidable.

Still, under those conditions a Scottish government could have bent the tax system massively out of shape in order to keep the oil inddustry on it's feet, there ar eall kinds of tax reliefs and duties that could be waived, should the UK government wish to do so. Currently the Scottish government has no power over north sea oil. This then is a test of the great and wonderful Union - either it's a massive issue for the industry that the UK government has to answer, or it's a storm in a teacup to be ridden out, in which case Unionist bleating on the issue is highly cynical (especially so given Murphy's laid back stance as Scottish secretary in 2009 - the last time oil prices were this low).

For me then, the issue is one of easing the pressure on the industry and it's supply chain in order to not decimate the eocnomy of the north East - should this little stand off between OPEC, the US and Russia continue for a while to come. While I appreciate that an INdy Scottish economy might be more prone to 'infection' than the UK one under the same conditions, it's also the case that currently the Scottish government cannot influence how the industry reacts to an oil shock and the UK has been neglectful in the past of setting up the mechanisms to insulate it from shocks and seems now reluctant to do so through changes to the tax regime. Possibly this is because it's own bottom line is serenely unnaffected by the oil shock. That is of course no comfort to Scotland where the industry IS under pressure and which will have huge effects on the Scottish economy regardless of the 'broad shoulders' of the UK. I'd rather be in a situation where the government was willing, or indeed compelled to act than one which does not notice the fallout of all those lost jobs.

[H_B]

Well the people in the industry still do, regardless they are still losing their jobs after all, depsite the massive and benevolently great UK economy.

That's the point though. For the nation as a whole, a massive drop in oil revenue makes far less difference to us as part of the UK. Given the UK economy is so massive.

It's one of the main advantages to being in the Union.

[renton]

That's the point though. For the nation as a whole, a massive drop in oil revenue makes far less difference to us as part of the UK. Given the UK economy is so massive.

It's one of the main advantages to being in the Union.

It makes less difference to the bottom line, certainly. The industry is under pressure regardless though, and it and it's supply chains will still shed jobs and the local economies they support will still suffer. Personally, my job - and I suspect yours are not affected by this regardless of constitutional position. My job is entirely dependent on the position of high end consumer electronics across the world, not oil and not the financial sector. However, for all those people who work in or support the oil industry, they are under severe pressure, and are probably not seeing much in the Union dividend.

[H_B]

. However, for all those people who work in or support the oil industry, they are under severe pressure, and are probably not seeing much in the Union dividend.

Well, that's true, but I'm not crying a river for them. Similarly if the IT industry was losing jobs, I certainly wouldn't expect (and there wouldnt be any) wailing and gnashing of teeth for us. It's the nature of working in the private sector. Many of them have enjoyed large salaries for a number of years - comes with a risk profile. If you want a safe job, become a teacher.

[renton]

Well, that's true, but I'm not crying a river for them. Similarly if the IT industry was losing jobs, I certainly wouldn't expect (and there wouldnt be any) wailing and gnashing of teeth for us. It's the nature of working in the private sector. Many of them have enjoyed large salaries for a number of years - comes with a risk profile. If you want a safe job, become a teacher.

I kind of see it as a role of govenment to gnash their teeth over job losses though, and yeah, for the most part the first jobs to go are the really highly paid free lancers. They know they can pick up work elsewhere anyway, but if it gets to the point where mid salary jobs in supply chain industries start to go, then you begin talking about widespread unemployment and malaise - and that's when communities beign to suffer beyond a few highly paid freelancers having to move to work off the coast of South America instead of the North Sea. Then again, I also believe (probably selfishly) that more could and should've been done to support silicon glen back in the ninties, while a stable and important part of the current Scottish economy it lost a lot of the mid salary production jobs and is now firmly a design based industry. Those production jobs were good for diverisfication of the economy and supply chain, and their loss was keenly felt in communities still trying to recover fromt he deindustrialisation of the 80s - and quite avoidable as well, had their been some government support.

Not to wander too far from the point though, despite a wider exposure to oil shocks I don't believe an indy Scottish economy would currently be crashing - that the infection rate for the wider economy would be quite minimal and that the main issue is supporting the local economies affected.

[H_B]

I kind of see it as a role of govenment to gnash their teeth over job losses though, and yeah, for the most part the first jobs to go are the really highly paid free lancers, they know they can pick up work elsewhere anyway, but if it gets to the point where mid salary jobs in supply chain industries start to go, then you begin talking about widespread unemployment and malaise - and that's when communities beign to suffer beyond a few highly paid freelancers having to move to work off the coast of South America instead of the North Sea. Then again, I also believe (probably selfishly) that more could and should've been done to support silicon glen back in the ninties, while a stalbe and important part of the current Scottish economy it lost a lot of the mid salary production jobs and is now firly a design based industry. Those production jobs were good for diverisfication of the economy and supply chain, and their loss was keenly felt in communities still trying to recover fromt he deindustrialisation of the 80s - and quite avoidable as well, had their been some government support.

Not to wander too far from the point though, despite a wider exposure to oil shocks I don't believe an indy Scottish economywould currently be crashing - that the infection rate for the wider economy would be quite minimal and tha tthe main issue is supporting the local economies affected.

It's largely posturing. Local MPs whine about local job losses. If it's substantial enough, local Holyrood government or national Westminster government will become involved. Ineos was an example of this.

It kindof depends what the nature of the losses are and over what period. A lot of headline numbers are misleading, as they exclude contractors, people taking Voluntary Redundancy etc.

I don't think any industry should be, or is, immune to job losses. That's the market. I have no sympathy or real interest at all in oil workers losing jobs. I'm sure it would very much be the same in reverse.

[renton]

It's largely posturing. Local MPs whine about local job losses. If it's substantial enough, local Holyrood government or national Westminster government will become involved. Ineos was an example of this.

It kindof depends what the nature of the losses are and over what period. A lot of headline numbers are misleading, as they exclude contractors, people taking Voluntary Redundancy etc.

I don't think any industry should be, or is, immune to job losses. That's the market. I have no sympathy or real interest at all in oil workers losing jobs. I'm sure it would very much be the same in reverse.

I think Holyrood would quite like to have been involved by now, but I agree it's largely just gesture politics. The concern I have is that Westminster will act slowly, if at all - not through any malice but the simple fact that as a smaller percentage of the UK bottom line, it's likely to nto feel any adverse effects and therefore act.

As to the market, I never have believed that this is the only essential driver. Governments can and do have influence on how an economy develops, and having grown up in a 'post industrial' town I've seen how these places, dependent on one big employer can have the life torn out of it for a generation or more, leading to far more constricted life choices in general.

[Tubbs]

So the oil was going to be extra. So how much in the black was Scotland going to be in in years 1, 2 and 3 ?

[AUFC90]

So the oil was going to be extra. So how much in the black was Scotland going to be in in years 1, 2 and 3 ?

What will the oil price be in years 1, 2 and 3 ?

[strichener]

It makes less difference to the bottom line, certainly. The industry is under pressure regardless though, and it and it's supply chains will still shed jobs and the local economies they support will still suffer. Personally, my job - and I suspect yours are not affected by this regardless of constitutional position. My job is entirely dependent on the position of high end consumer electronics across the world, not oil and not the financial sector. However, for all those people who work in or support the oil industry, they are under severe pressure, and are probably not seeing much in the Union dividend.

I'm still waiting for someone to tell me where to collect the cheque from.

[strichener]

Well, that's true, but I'm not crying a river for them. Similarly if the IT industry was losing jobs, I certainly wouldn't expect (and there wouldnt be any) wailing and gnashing of teeth for us. It's the nature of working in the private sector. Many of them have enjoyed large salaries for a number of years - comes with a risk profile. If you want a safe job, become a teacher.

Tubbs? Tubbs? Can you set him straight here...

[Tubbs]

What will the oil price be in years 1, 2 and 3 ?

I said was, not is. If oil was going to be extra for iScotland how much in the black was planned for years 1,2 and 3 at the conservative price quoted in the White Paper ?

[AUFC90]

I said was, not is. If oil was going to be extra for iScotland how much in the black was planned for years 1,2 and 3 at the conservative price quoted in the White Paper ?

I dont know. No one truly knows the true extent of Scotland's finances until we become independent. Compared to the UK economy we are the same WITHOUT oil.

We're just better