Dunning1874 Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 Aye, Trump should be routed here but won't be - he's going to be up against one of the worst candidates the Democrats have ever put forward. His inability to appeal to minorities will be enough to get Clinton over the line, but her own rank incompetence will make this closer than it should be. Sanders or any Democratic nominee of the last 30 years including Dukakis would have been able to win a landslide against Trump, but Clinton's ability to Hibs things can't be underestimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 I sometimes think that culturally we've got more in common with Mongolia than America. From the 1700s until now British folks have commented (or mocked if they are less polite) on a few aspects of America that they consider negative and different. Religious wackiness, violence, insane politics, and the outsized role in our culture played by "ignorant" country people. In 2100 people will be saying that same things. Of course Americans have our negative stereotypes of the British and they are largely the same as they were a few hundred years back. However, the basic building blocks of culture have the same foundation. Family structure and the roles or expectations of various members in a family. Sexual ethics / mating rituals. The role gender in society. How far apart we stand to have a conversation. Etc. Etc. At any rate, my parent's town in really abnormal, even by American standards. I got out of their as soon as I could because a few years in high school was enough for me. Their county was on of 4 or 5 that ended up going for Cruz over Trump in Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 What happens in the subsequent primaries now that all but Trump have dropped out? Do they get cancelled? No. My state is up next. You still have the party primaries for Governor, Senate, House, State Legislature, Sheriff, Judges, other local officials on the ballot. We also have to go through the motions of marking a candidate for President. It's just that the candidates other than Trump have suspended active campaigning. Their names will still be on the ballot. It's kind of boring for me now because there's only one Republican running to be a candidate for governor and our Congressman in running unopposed for the Republican ballot slot. No Senate races this year. Just local stuff and a few bond issues. It's too bad. Trump was gonna crush here. Favorability rating in a poll just before the Indiana vote: Trump - 67%/24%, Cruz - 32%/53%, Kasich - 32%/50%. Trump beats Clinton 57% - 30% and beats Sanders 56% - 35%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 I blame Big Brother for all this, the celebrity culture has gone totally insane if this moron gets elected. Someone with zero experience of government getting the most powerful job on the planet? I'd argue that running a giant, global corporation is better preparation than a half term as a back bench Senator after a career as a social worker and a part time college professor, which were Obama's qualifications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 I don't get all the Hillary is lying monster thing. Only thing I remember was her telling an anecdote about being under fire abroad which was slightly exaggerated as memories often are. For recent examples: Blaming a spontaneous demonstration over a youtube video mocking Mohammad for the Benghazi attack when they knew from the beginning that it was a planned terrorist attack. About 12 different lies and half truths regarding the email situation. Hillary's bigger problem on trustworthiness beyond any reputation for outright lying is that people think she'll say or support anything for power. In 2008 she ran in my state as pro-gun and pro-coal industry because her strategy was to run to the right of Obama and occupy the same spot as her husband did in America's political landscape. She beat Obama 67% to 27% in the Democrat primary that year. This time she's running on passing regulations which would have the specific intent to put coal companies and gun companies out of business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 Same. I'd particularly like to see him trying to get Mexico to pay for a massive wall. That, and practically everything else he's promised, would end up being an absolute minter for him. The fear of an imminent nuclear apocalypse wouldn't be worth the scenes though. A small tax on wire transfers of money out of the country by people who can't prove their legal residence would raise $1 billion per year. Ten years and the wall is paid for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 Without the Trump factor the numbers are still stacked against the Republicans. In the last 6 US elections they only have 9 states that they have always won opposed to the 19 for the Democrats - that's 107 electoral college votes for the GOP to 246 electoral college votes for the Democrats. Florida is (not surprisingly) now swinging heavily towards Clinton giving her the majority she needs - even without the other states. I suspect other states with a high Latino and/or black vote will also go heavily against Trump. It's going to be a rout. A recent Rasmussen poll was a bit of an outlier and showed Trump tied with Hillary. It's the only poll that has publicly broken down the racial results. It had Trump at 12% with blacks. Former Obama administration official Van Jones was freaking out on CNN because Trump only has a 75% disapproval rating with blacks. He said that if Trump can win half of the other 25% he probably wins the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 Last week while the Mexican supremacists and Make America Mexico Again were out rioting in California Jamiel Shaw was speaking at the Trump rally. Mr. Shaw's son was murdered by an illegal immigrant who had just been let out of jail without notification of immigration officials under Democrat sanctuary city policies. This immigrant was in jail on his 3rd gun charge and assaulting a police officer. His gang has a policy of giving a criminal task to members just out of jail to prove that they aren't rehabilitated. They told him to find a black person to kill. This is in contrast to the Mexicans outside blocking traffic, surrounding cars, and spray painting any cars where the people inside were wearing Trump gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 Aye, Trump should be routed here but won't be - he's going to be up against one of the worst candidates the Democrats have ever put forward. His inability to appeal to minorities will be enough to get Clinton over the line, but her own rank incompetence will make this closer than it should be. Sanders or any Democratic nominee of the last 30 years including Dukakis would have been able to win a landslide against Trump, but Clinton's ability to Hibs things can't be underestimated. Clinton may be dislikable but she's not incompetent. She's not racist or misogynistic, and she doesn't strike fear into the hearts of half the electorate. Her competence has nothing to do with the matter. The utter buffoonery of her opponent will, as you say, push her over the line, even if she monumentally screws up. The delusional ramblings about sending Clinton to jail, about 9/11, about JFK and about Muslims (and by implication Obama) and abortion have made Trump unelectable. And the Republicans are destroying the GOP because they can't see it. A contested convention could have stopped Trump, except the other candidate was a religious fruit loop. The Benghazi thing could have been a serious issue (notwithstanding the conspiracy theory claptrap) but instead the Republicans focused on a complete non issue over emails. I'm no Clinton fan - Sanders is the only candidate since McGovern who really represents my politics - but Trump has contrived to make her untouchable. Most people will vote for someone they dislike over somebody insane. This will be the biggest landslide since McGovern/Nixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 It's either Clinton or a moron who's going to rip up America's trade deals, apparently learn about what's going on in the world on the job and generally make a laughing stock out of the country. I'm guessing Clinton's federal investigation will go fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 Clinton may be dislikable but she's not incompetent. She's not racist or misogynistic, and she doesn't strike fear into the hearts of half the electorate. Her competence has nothing to do with the matter. The utter buffoonery of her opponent will, as you say, push her over the line, even if she monumentally screws up. The delusional ramblings about sending Clinton to jail, about 9/11, about JFK and about Muslims (and by implication Obama) and abortion have made Trump unelectable. And the Republicans are destroying the GOP because they can't see it. A contested convention could have stopped Trump, except the other candidate was a religious fruit loop. The Benghazi thing could have been a serious issue (notwithstanding the conspiracy theory claptrap) but instead the Republicans focused on a complete non issue over emails. I'm no Clinton fan - Sanders is the only candidate since McGovern who really represents my politics - but Trump has contrived to make her untouchable. Most people will vote for someone they dislike over somebody insane. This will be the biggest landslide since McGovern/Nixon. I think you're correct. I certainly hope you're correct. I only hope Sanders campaign leaves some lasting legacy and I'm encouraged by the level of support he's had during these primaries and his ability raise funds from such a large group of supporters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 I think you're correct. I certainly hope you're correct. I only hope Sanders campaign leaves some lasting legacy and I'm encouraged by the level of support he's had during these primaries and his ability raise funds from such a large group of supporters. All that being said, President Trump would be hilarious for about twenty minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 Think what people in the UK don't grasp is that a lot of people in the US now view the Bush and Clinton families as being two cheeks of the same posterior in a similar way to how the Old Firm is viewed by many in Scottish football and that's what drives a lot of the support for outsiders like Trump and Sanders, who are seen as not being part of the corrupt business as usual way of doing things: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 Think what people in the UK don't grasp is that a lot of people in the US now view the Bush and Clinton families as being two cheeks of the same posterior in a similar way to how the Old Firm is viewed by many in Scottish football and that's what drives a lot of the support for outsiders like Trump and Sanders, who are seen as not being part of the corrupt business as usual way of doing things: I disagree to an extent. I'm not sure that people here don't recognise that. You are right. The Clintons are Democrat Party establishment in the same way as the Bushes represent the Republicans (and show in away that Obama is not establishment). I'd be amazed if Americans are blind to the fact that Trump merely represents a different establishment - big business, finance and Wall Street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 I could see an independent like Michael Bloomberg coming in and romping it, given the unpopularity of both candidates. P.S. 80/1 for any independent winning on Bet365. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 It's not easy for third party candidates to get on the ballot in a lot of states, because the Republicans and Democrats have deliberately rigged the system to try to prevent that scenario from happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 It's not easy for third party candidates to get on the ballot in a lot of states, because the Republicans and Democrats have deliberately rigged the system to try to prevent that scenario from happening. The Libertarian Party gets on nearly all the states' ballots - usually well over 45. It will probably choose Gary Johnson again. He got over a million votes last time. His record as a liberal Republican Governor in a Democratic state was solid. A wealthy independent candidate like Bloomberg could easily afford to hire the firms who collect the signatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 I disagree to an extent. I'm not sure that people here don't recognise that. You are right. The Clintons are Democrat Party establishment in the same way as the Bushes represent the Republicans (and show in away that Obama is not establishment). I'd be amazed if Americans are blind to the fact that Trump merely represents a different establishment - big business, finance and Wall Street. I guess Trump could be lying and actually be a stealth Wall Street, crony capitalist candidate, but he's run his entire campaign opposed to big business interests he views as in conflict with the interests of ordinary citizens. And the Wall Street folks spent a couple hundred million dollars trying to stop his nomination. It would be quite a con. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 Ann Coulter predicts Trump on June 19, 2015. Everyone laughs at her. Of course she doesn't get invited on tv to talk about elections very much because she goes off the mainstream media script too often. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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