banana Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 This one is actually really good. Almost 2 million views as well. Ok, I will be done now. Not really a fair representation considering that dude thinks all immigration is illegal Impressive young man, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerberus Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 Clinton looks to be clear of the Benghazi scandal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 Types "..you can see if you're posting a poll that's an outlier." Posts a poll which is an outlier The Roy Hodgson of the politics forum Latest poll today by Quinnipiac has Clinton up 42-40 in a 2 way race and up 39-37-8-4 with Libertarians and Greens included. Trump has the support of 33% of Hispanics which would be better than Romney and McCain. What's most odd about the ABC poll that you posted is that Clinton increased her lead from the last ABC poll. Almost all polls since Orlando have shown a 2-3% move towards Trump. That's the real reason it's such an outlier. Clinton looks to be clear of the Benghazi scandal. It seems like what we thought was confirmed. Clinton made mistakes and ignored requests regarding the embassy security, and then she participated in a lie to cover up real reason for the attack. State department officials dispatched to investigate complaints about security at the embassy concluded in their report that people would eventually die under the current conditions. The UK and UN pulled their people out. We stayed. She personally told the President of Egypt that the video had nothing to do with the attack while Obama officials were still peddling the lie on US tv and she was telling this lie to the families of the victims. One of the new things I didn't know was that the State Dept was contracting out security partially to local militia who just abandoned their post. It turns out that the people who came to rescue many of the folks in the embassy were ex-Qaddafi military officers who were in hiding, but were put in touch with the CIA during the attack. And of course Libya was only in this situation because of Clinton's hard advocacy for the overthrow of Qaddafi. People have their view of whether Clinton can be trusted to make foreign policy decisions at this point. All the information is in the public. Trump's job is to get these facts to low information Democrat voters who don't think beyond Republican = war and Democrat = peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arabdownunder Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 ... Almost all polls since Orlando have shown a 2-3% move towards Trump. Before you post anything poll related I suggest you go to RealClearPolitics http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html 12 June (date of Orlando shooting): RCP POLL AVERAGE; General Election: Trump vs. Clinton. Clinton +4.5% Today: RCP POLL AVERAGE; General Election: Trump vs. Clinton. Clinton +6.1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Before you post anything poll related I suggest you go to RealClearPolitics http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html 12 June (date of Orlando shooting): RCP POLL AVERAGE; General Election: Trump vs. Clinton. Clinton +4.5% Today: RCP POLL AVERAGE; General Election: Trump vs. Clinton. Clinton +6.1% Yes, your ABC poll threw off the average and the Poll Average is made up only of recent polls. I meant that if you compared each polling service with their own previous poll. Fox came out with one today that shows Clinton up 6% head to head, which is a 2% increase from their last poll. Including the Libertarian she is up 5%. They did not include the Green Party for some reason. The polling for this election is gonna be tough because of how unpopular the two candidates are. Generally you can mostly discount the Libertarians and Greens at this point because their support always starts off a bit higher and then bleeds down towards 1-2% as we head towards election day. It's tough to say whether that will happen this year as well. Also, Mike Tyson is denying that he's been asked to appear at the RNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arabdownunder Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 So if you exclude the Clinton lead high outliers for but include the Clinton lead low outliers, the gap is narrower?* You sir, are a psephological genius. *There are no polls with a Trump lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 What everyone seems to be ignoring here is that the popular voting is irrelevant. In fact, this makes it even tougher for Donald Trump. There are 538 electoral college up for grabs and you need 270 to win. Clinton can basically rely on winning California, Delaware, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusets, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Washington DC and Wisconsin. That's 248 of the 270 just from their safe seats. On the contrary, Trump can count on winning Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. That accounts for 172 delegates. Only 118 delegates come from the marginals, these break down as Florida 29 Ohio 18 North Carolina 15 Virginia 13 Indiana 11 Colorado 9 Iowa 6 Nevada 6 New Mexico 5 New Hampshire 4 Clinton only needs 32 of these 118 delegates so basically by winning Florida, she's all but there. I've defined safe seats as any seat that voted the same way for each of the last 4 elections and marginals as those which have voted for both parties at least once since 2000. Florida has been a bellwether since 2000, Ohio has been a bellwether since 2000, North Carolina leans Republican although voted for Obama in 2008, Virginia is a bellwether, Indiana leans Republican although voted Obama in 2008, Colorado is bellwether, Iowa leans Democrat although voted Bush in 2004, Nevada is bellwether, New Mexico leans Democrat although voted Bush in 2004 and New Hampshire leans Democrat although voted Bush in 2000 If we assume Clinton will hold Iowa, New Mexico and New Hampshire then she only needs 17 delegates from the bellwethers (assume Trump will take NC and Virginia for 28 delegates, leaving him still 70 short) Hillary basically just needs to win one of: -Florida -Ohio -Virginia and one of either Colorado or Nebraska Trump can only afford to lose either Virginia or Colorado AND Nebraska. This election basically comes down to 5 states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahemps Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 It would be funny for Trump to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 So if you exclude the Clinton lead high outliers for but include the Clinton lead low outliers, the gap is narrower?* You sir, are a psephological genius. *There are no polls with a Trump lead Today Rasmussen - Trump +4 IBD - Clinton +4 (2 way), Clinton +1 (4 way) PPP - Clinton +4, Clinton +4 Reuters - Clinton +10, Clinton +11 What everyone seems to be ignoring here is that the popular voting is irrelevant. In fact, this makes it even tougher for Donald Trump. There are 538 electoral college up for grabs and you need 270 to win. Clinton can basically rely on winning California, Delaware, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusets, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Washington DC and Wisconsin. That's 248 of the 270 just from their safe seats. On the contrary, Trump can count on winning Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. That accounts for 172 delegates. Only 118 delegates come from the marginals, these break down as Florida 29 Ohio 18 North Carolina 15 Virginia 13 Indiana 11 Colorado 9 Iowa 6 Nevada 6 New Mexico 5 New Hampshire 4 Clinton only needs 32 of these 118 delegates so basically by winning Florida, she's all but there. I've defined safe seats as any seat that voted the same way for each of the last 4 elections and marginals as those which have voted for both parties at least once since 2000. Florida has been a bellwether since 2000, Ohio has been a bellwether since 2000, North Carolina leans Republican although voted for Obama in 2008, Virginia is a bellwether, Indiana leans Republican although voted Obama in 2008, Colorado is bellwether, Iowa leans Democrat although voted Bush in 2004, Nevada is bellwether, New Mexico leans Democrat although voted Bush in 2004 and New Hampshire leans Democrat although voted Bush in 2000 If we assume Clinton will hold Iowa, New Mexico and New Hampshire then she only needs 17 delegates from the bellwethers (assume Trump will take NC and Virginia for 28 delegates, leaving him still 70 short) Hillary basically just needs to win one of: -Florida -Ohio -Virginia and one of either Colorado or Nebraska Trump can only afford to lose either Virginia or Colorado AND Nebraska. This election basically comes down to 5 states. It's possible that Trump can run the Bush gauntlet of winning almost all swing states to the White House, but most people say he will have to pick off some of the Democratic Rust Belt states to win. Several of the swing states you mentioned have gotten much more favorable demographically to the Democrats since Bush won them by razor thin margins. Clinton, for her part, is hoping that increased immigrant populations in Arizona and Georgia put those formerly safe Republican states in play for her. She's even mentioned Texas, but that would be an extreme long shot. Current polling Pennsylvania - Clinton +2.5%. Obama won by 5.4% and 10.3%. Georgia - Trump +4.2%. Republicans won by 7.8% and 5.2% against Obama. I couldn't find recent polling for either Arizona or Michigan, which would be the other big non-recent swing states that the candidates will seem to be targeting. I wouldn't be so quick to assume that Clinton can hold New Hampshire. She has a 2.7% lead right now. That's easily within a swing state margin at this point. Utah might also be an issue for Trump. I've read that there's been internal polling that shows him up just a few points despite Obama losing by 48% there. The Mormons really don't seem to like Trump and apparently Libertarian Gary Johnson has been having a great showing. I suspect that they are just throwing a fit and will eventually vote for Trump, but who knows? If Trump has trouble with Mormons that could rule out any chance at Colorado and Nevada, as well as making Arizona harder to hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerberus Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Trump & Son have been email UK MPs asking for money to fund his campaign. I take it no one in the US will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Trump & Son have been email UK MPs asking for money to fund his campaign. I take it no one in the US will do it. I wonder if they have laws like here that you're not allowed to accept political donations from foreigners? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 I wonder if they have laws like here that you're not allowed to accept political donations from foreigners? They do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlbionMan Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Trump & Son have been email UK MPs asking for money to fund his campaign. I take it no one in the US will do it. Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerberus Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Source? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-36599724 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Today Rasmussen - Trump +4 IBD - Clinton +4 (2 way), Clinton +1 (4 way) PPP - Clinton +4, Clinton +4 Reuters - Clinton +10, Clinton +11 It's possible that Trump can run the Bush gauntlet of winning almost all swing states to the White House, but most people say he will have to pick off some of the Democratic Rust Belt states to win. Several of the swing states you mentioned have gotten much more favorable demographically to the Democrats since Bush won them by razor thin margins. Clinton, for her part, is hoping that increased immigrant populations in Arizona and Georgia put those formerly safe Republican states in play for her. She's even mentioned Texas, but that would be an extreme long shot. Current polling Pennsylvania - Clinton +2.5%. Obama won by 5.4% and 10.3%. Georgia - Trump +4.2%. Republicans won by 7.8% and 5.2% against Obama. I couldn't find recent polling for either Arizona or Michigan, which would be the other big non-recent swing states that the candidates will seem to be targeting. I wouldn't be so quick to assume that Clinton can hold New Hampshire. She has a 2.7% lead right now. That's easily within a swing state margin at this point. Utah might also be an issue for Trump. I've read that there's been internal polling that shows him up just a few points despite Obama losing by 48% there. The Mormons really don't seem to like Trump and apparently Libertarian Gary Johnson has been having a great showing. I suspect that they are just throwing a fit and will eventually vote for Trump, but who knows? If Trump has trouble with Mormons that could rule out any chance at Colorado and Nevada, as well as making Arizona harder to hold. Win Florida and Clinton is a shoe-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-36599724 Eh, that article says it's the result of improperly culled email lists. At any rate, I'd rather Canucks and Icelanders funding US candidates than ChiCom and Saudi billionaires who just happen to have duel citizenship because of their business interests here. And this is as good a time as any to remember how the Clinton's rented out nights in the Lincoln bedroom during the 90s to fund their campaign. I did see a suggestion that if Clinton picks Elizabeth Warren as her running mate Trump should accept Warren's "People's Pledge" which requires all candidates to accept public funding and bans candidates from participating in fundraising for outside super PACs. Elizabeth Warren has constantly pushed this idea, so it would look really bad to backtrack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yank Mike Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 I think this article sums up the Trump phenomenon as well as anything I've read. http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-trump-wins/ Why Trump Wins He knows border wars have replaced culture wars.By Scott McConnell • June 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerberus Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Yank Mike RIP. I guess we'll never find out if he was Swampy, another P&B troll, or just some random nutter. Edit: He was of Italian decsendant right? riposare in pace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Yank Mike RIP. I guess we'll never find out if he was Swampy, another P&B troll, or just some random nutter. Edit: He was of Italian decsendant right? riposare in pace We voted for less of this foreign talk. Mods, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paco Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 FBI bottle charging Clinton. Basically say she did wrong, she's lied about it, there was eight top secret email chains amounting to 110 individual emails... But she won't be charged with anything. Pretty much certain if she were still SoS she'd be booted out at a minimum, probably charged. Bad news for all concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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