Fide Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 How accurate is Ashcroft's polling? This is the first time he's done major polling, yes? I'd say it's pretty spot on. He backs up his polls with full explanations and methodology. Haven't seen any of the more experienced companies complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 It gave me a wee sip, which has addressed the thirst. Could still go a big drink, tbf. Yourself? Valium vs heroin buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivo den Bieman Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 It's a great article that- very clear and even-handed, and quite similar to the one in the Guardian linked to earlier. Labour increasingly are the party of the elderly, the blindly faithful and the bitter. Those taking a longer view will be relieved that the coming defeat will (almost) clear out all the personnel responsible for it. If it really is as bad as this, Murphy will be gone by the end of May 8th. A lot of soul-searching and in-fighting lies ahead of Labour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 If it really is as bad as this, Murphy will be gone by the end of May 8th. Ummm, if it's anything like as bad as this Murphy will be gone by about 4am on May 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Ashcroft did polling in the last campaign, and has actually downweighted SNP numbers to account for some form of incumbency/'big party' effect. The indications are consistent across the board: the swing to SNP is larger in direct two-horse races with the Red Tories than it is in the likes of Angus - which makes sense, as the SNP have already piled up much of their realistic voting base there in previous elections.. So a uniform swing underestimates the SNP threat in the Central Belt while overstating the huge majorities you'd expect under UNS in seats the SNP already own. Any seat which is a two-horse SNP-Red Tory race is winnable: they won't win them all though owing to basic probability and a few local incumbencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivo den Bieman Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Ummm, if it's anything like as bad as this Murphy will be gone by about 4am on May 8th. it usually takes a little longer than that, it's hardly the most important point anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivo den Bieman Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Ashcroft did polling in the last campaign, and has actually downweighted SNP numbers to account for some form of incumbency/'big party' effect. The indications are consistent across the board: the swing to SNP is larger in direct two-horse races with the Red Tories than it is in the likes of Angus - which makes sense, as the SNP have already piled up much of their realistic voting base there in previous elections.. So a uniform swing underestimates the SNP threat in the Central Belt while overstating the huge majorities you'd expect under UNS in seats the SNP already own. Any seat which is a two-horse SNP-Red Tory race is winnable: they won't win them all though owing to basic probability and a few local incumbencies. very true; I just like to be a wee bit cautious after numerous previous "it's our night!" election nights, have tiurned out to be nothing of the sort. This election night has all the makings of the election night of a lifetime. Only a Yes vote in a future referendum will top it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 New populas poll out. Scottish subsample has snp on 32% and labour on 26% :o:o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 24, 2015 Author Share Posted April 24, 2015 New populas poll out. Scottish subsample has snp on 32% and labour on 26% :o:o ^^^^ Bad trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 New populas poll out. Scottish subsample has snp on 32% and labour on 26% :o:o No, it's SNP 44%, Labour 25%. ETA: Thats from a few days back. I don't believe for one second the SNP are down to 32% http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_24-04-2015_BPC2.pdf Subsample is small. 183 people. And it's 41 to 32% on those who intend to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 No, it's SNP 44%, Labour 25%. Am I reading the wrong page on the download? Its only bout 130 people so statistically pish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Click into the latest one. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 41% of 131 people... the sub polls generally don't mean anything to be honest - I've seen some that show the SNP with 56%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 24, 2015 Author Share Posted April 24, 2015 There was always going to be a time when a sub sample threw up something as unrepresentative as this. Try not to fixate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 % of votes won't mean much. Labour will still get hammered whilst taking well upwards of 20 per cent of the vote in Scotland. That's fptp for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 For a sample of size 100 the margin of error is 10%. SNP 32 Labour 26 is as likely as SNP 42 Labour 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biscuits Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 "The mood is perhaps best summed up by Samantha Morton, who works at a housing association. She told me: “For the first time ever I think my vote might actually count for something…I feel completely empowered.” Sums it all up for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Septentrional Wasp Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 For a sample of size 100 the margin of error is 10%. SNP 32 Labour 26 is as likely as SNP 42 Labour 16 Or SNP 22 Labour 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Just did a wee look at seats/odds. I used paddypower site and looked at seats where SNP where 1/3 on or more favourable... result returned 44 seats. Obviously SNP are favourites in more than that, but I would be ecstatic if they returned 44. Surely the bookies cant have got it this wrong. Could they?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Just did a wee look at seats/odds. I used paddypower site and looked at seats where SNP where 1/3 on or more favourable... result returned 44 seats. Obviously SNP are favourites in more than that, but I would be ecstatic if they returned 44. Surely the bookies cant have got it this wrong. Could they?? Bookies are hardly ever wrong. Which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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