Holyrood '16 polls and predictions

[Kyle]

Labour have killed themselves in Scotland, it's not to really due to the SNP doing anything special

the SNP's performance, referendum and general election campaign aside, has been pretty poor in the last 4 years IMO. It almost looks like they'll get a free pass next year anyway. I know much of that is down to the referendum and the failings of the other parties up here, but they MUST pull their socks up if they want to carry on their momentum beyond next year.

Labour need to redefine themselves. They need to become the party which supports further devolution, even devo-max. That will appease some of the softer yes voters, get people looking at them in Scotland again and it wont really affect their vote in England and Wales in a negative way.

Kezia and Macintosh are both horror show candidates for labour at the moment. Neil Findlay or Katy Clark would've been much better shouts for them as potential leader up here.

[~~~]

I don't believe Labour can make any sort of comeback in Scotland so long as they're seen as nothing but a branch office who takes orders from London.

They really need to get some balls and become its own party, that way people can take them more serious

[Michael W]

My point is though - who is the alternative to the SNP? Labour are a complete shambles, still bitter and not actually providing a credible alternative. The Tories, who look best organised, aren't taken seriously Scotland and the Lib Dems have effectively killed themselves getting into bed with the Tories.

Large chunks of the population clearly aren't happy with the SNP's performance in Government, yet will vote for them anyway because there isn't anyone else to vote for.

Sounds a bit like Labour 10/15 years ago.

People will keep voting SNP until they feel sufficently let down by them and there is a credible alternative. It isn't going to shift in the next decade because the latter isn't there. There are enough people fed up with the SNP, but Labour in particular are a mess and not in a position to capitalise.

To be honest, Labour would've been as well keeping Murphy as leader despite the circumstances being as humiliating as they were. They are going to get their tatties anyway in May 2016, so what do they do when they inevitability suffer their worst Holyrood performance - bin Kez and go through it all again? That doesn't seem like good forward planning when she'll have been there less than a year. It's like changing the captain of the Titanic after the iceberg has been hit.

[Alan Stubbs]

The other parties and their supporters are simply lying to themselves with the excuse that the SNP are only winning because of Independence. It's a coping mechanism.

The polling that Kyle has posted and his summary of it are the best insight into the situation I've seen in a while. Scottish voters think the SNP are okay at their day job - and that okay performance makes them by some distance the best option we have.

The biggest factor Independence has on the whole thing is that Labour, Lib Dems and Tories have absolutely nothing to say for themselves apart from talking about Independence. The obsession absolutely ruined all of them in the GE and it doesn't look like anything's changed since. People on here and IRL are willing to criticise the SNP, they just don't translate it into support for the other parties because not one of them has an ounce of credibility.

[Kyle]

I'm actually at the point where the individual candidates could come into my thinking rather than the parties they represent.

I've got Patrick Harvie as a potential constituent MSP. As things stand, I'll probably plump for him. If things remain the same, I might vote for Sandra White as the incumbent and lend Paddy my support in the list vote instead.

[Gordon EF]

This poll highlights the biggest problem in Scottish politics at the moment. As much as I'm happy to see labour flounder, the SNP's lack of credible opposition is actually becoming a concern. From the same poll showing these staggering results, here's the population's opinion on the SNP's performance in Government in the main devolved areas;

Economy

Good 25%

Bad 24%

Neither 45%

NHS

Good 34%

Bad 29%

Neither 33%

Education

Good 34%

Bad 19%

Neither 40%

Crime and Justice

Good 23% (!)

Bad 29%

Neither 40%

Over the 4 main areas, roughly 30% of the population think that the SNP are doing a good job, yet over 60% plan to vote for the SNP? That's utter madness. The fact that roughly 40% people voted 'neither' in all 4 categories suggest they don't even care about their performance at Holyrood ffs

The SNP need proper opposition and quickly. This blind support isn't helping the poorest people in our society either as the SNP will get to the point where they will take this overwhelming support for granted.

That's one way of looking at it. Another is that the 'bad' %ages are almost certainly incredibly low for a sitting government, especially one that's been in for a few years. Only around half the people that voted for other parties are saying the SNP have done a bad job. And you can bet they're the hardest core Tory/SLAB/anti-SNP/unionists.

That's a pretty remarkable stat to be honest.

[Fide]

You wont find many on this site that agree with you about a strong opposition for the snp

Of COURSE a strong opposition is needed. That's a given. It's not coming from anywhere though unless Slab break away from head office, clear out ALL the dead wood and start again.

[Gordon EF]

All this talk about strong opposition is a bit redundant.

Of course the ideal scenario is a strong and credible opposition who can always hold the government to account. But we don't have credible opposition at the moment so the opposition isn't really going to be strong enough to do that for the foreseeable future. That is entirely the opposition's fault.

With the shambles of an opposition we have at Holyrood at the moment, I'm bloody glad they're in such a weak position. They'll be stronger when enough people deem them worth voting for.

[Alan Stubbs]

Hopefully a decent number of Greens allows them to be a noisy irritance to the SNP. They can actually speak up about things like privitisation, centralisation and civil liberties and not deserve a chuckle and a sit doon you in response.

[Kyle]

All this talk about strong opposition is a bit redundant.

Of course the ideal scenario is a strong and credible opposition who can always hold the government to account. But we don't have credible opposition at the moment so the opposition isn't really going to be strong enough to do that for the foreseeable future. That is entirely the opposition's fault.

With the shambles of an opposition we have at Holyrood at the moment, I'm bloody glad they're in such a weak position. They'll be stronger when enough people deem them worth voting for.

There we go again - looking at things from completely different perspectives

It's obviously good for the SNP that the main opposition parties aren't doing well, but I think Scotland suffers as a result. There is no proper scrutiny of their policy making as, inevitably, everything comes back round to a second referendum.

We are on the same side of that issue, I suspect on most others in Scotland too, but I can't help but think that the SNP will eventually go the same way as labour have if this continues too much longer.

[Roland B]

Kyle and Gordon both have good points.

For me, the crux of the matter is that ultimately the electorate should hold the government responsible for their performance. I don't think the SNP have been faultless in government (I don't think any government can be).

The lack of an alternative just accentuates the polls. I just hope that the SNP rigorously self police and don't fall into the Labour mindset.

This would neither benefit the SNP or the Scottish people long term.

[Colkitto]

Whilst I understand the importance of having good opposition in any democracy, I don't want any party to do well this side of independence.

Certainly not any of the Unionist party's anyway!

[Kyle]

Whilst I understand the importance of having good opposition in any democracy, I don't want any party to do well this side of independence.

Certainly not any of the Unionist party's anyway!

I get that and I'm tempted into that kind of thinking too, but I think we need to be better than that. Appreciate that the longer a Tory Government that Scotland has so little say in remains in power and continues to cut budgets left right and centre, the more the Yes cause is helped, similarly the longer the unionist parties are a shambles up here. But I don't want to see vulnerable people suffer in the mean time. Whether we like it or not, Scotland voted to remain part of this fucking shite system, so we're better of contributing to that, both at Holyrood and Westminster.

If the Unionist parties and the press would stop bringing up a second referendum every couple of days, we could actually focus on making things better inside the constraints of the union. Unfortunately they appear unwilling/unable to let that happen.

[Mr Bairn]

No surprise that crime and justice is seen as the weakest area for the SNP. They have completely Hibsed it since day zero in that department.

[Roland B]

Whilst I understand the importance of having good opposition in any democracy, I don't want any party to do well this side of independence.

Certainly not any of the Unionist party's anyway!

Not a lot to argue with on this, other than a Scottish economy that outperforms rUK, better education figures than rUK, higher satisfaction in the NHS in Scotland & some sort of social justice in Scotland, MAY persuade some nay-sayers to convert as confidence that we can go it alone increases.

All these are achievable without a strong opposition, but more likely if there is real accountability via the polling booth?

[Mr Rational]

My biggest concern is the amount of newbies trying to turn it into the Labour Party.

Coupled with parachuted candidates coming in with payroll approval, only on the list because it fits the 'criteria'.

I never wanted to going the feckin Labour Party

[Ray Vaughn]

TNS Poll (10Aug15)

Constituency vote/List Vote

SNP 62%/54%

Labour 20%/20%

Tories 12%/12%

LibDem 3%/4%

Greens ?%/8%

Looking at the percentages in the list votes I predict the following seats would typically be awarded on the list

(Assumptions made: 9 constituency seats in a list area and all seats go to SNP, 7 list seats in a list area)

1st Seat awarded to labour

2nd seat awarded to Tories

3rd Seat Awarded to Labour

4th Seat Awarded to Greens

5th Seat Awarded to Labour

6the Seat Awarded to Tories

7th Seat awarded to SNP

What would happen if half the SNP 54% list vote voted green instead giving the greens 35% (their own 8% and an additional 27% from tactically voting SNP supporters)

I used the same assumptions as above:

1st seat awarded to Greens

2nd seat awarded to Labour

3rd seat awarded to Greens

4th seat awarded to Tory

5th seat awarded to Greens

6th seat awarded to Labour

7th seat awarded to Greens

Let's theorise that the SNP don't put up any candidates on the list as SNP but under a banner such as "Coalition for Independence". Don't know the legalities of this but I assume if candidates resigned from the SNP then there is little that could be done to stop them.

1st Seat awarded to "Coalition for Independence"

2nd Seat awarded to "Coalition for Independence"

3rd Seat awarded to Labour

4th Seat awarded to "Coalition for Independence"

5th Seat awarded to "Coalition for Independence"

6th Seat awarded to Tories

7th Seat awarded to "Coalition for Independence"

[Gordon EF]

It's a bit of a dangerous path to go down and I fully understand and accept that the SNP will say nothing but 'we want people to vote SNP/SNP' but looking at the figures, the more SNP voters who give their 2nd votes to the Greens, the better.

Given that in the current system, there are sort of 'watershed' %ages, it wouldn't even take that many SNP voters giving the Greens their 2nd vote to do serious damage to Labour and the Tories.

Aside from supporting independence, the Greens are a party I'd really like to see with a stronger voice in the SP. Certainly more than the perennially pointless Busted Flush.

[mizfit]

I'll go out on a limb here and say not one constituency seat will go to the Tories or Lib Dems. They'll get a couple from the List vote though.

[John Lambies Doos]

Timetable for independence.

1) 2016- would not have referendum in manifesto. SNP landslide

2) 2020 GE- Tory Landslide. Corbyn is unelectable in middle England- the blairites are unelectable pretty much everywhere.

3) 2021 SE- referendum in manifesto.

4) 2023 referendum. Independence will be gained.

Edit. Starting thread for this.