StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 However, I'm not sure what grounds you have for presuming that the link to this bloke's stat page whoever he may be is more likely to be correct that the ATP's own website? Are there other sources confirming that position? I use that site every week, and it's always been correct. There's no real reason to assume they've made a balls up this week. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 (edited) Murray's points from Doha fell off the previous week, so he actually picked up points from his win last weekend. Of course it all evens itself out over the fortnight. Well, that's moving the goalposts now. That's certainly different from merely 'outperforming him'. For example, say Murray and Nadal do exactly the same as last year up to the US Open apart from the Australian Open and Wimbledon. And say Murray wins the Australian Open and Wimbledon beating Nadal in the final each time. I would argue that Murray would have 'outperformed' Nadal over the year. However, Nadal's points going into the US Open would be 13060 (Currently 13160, but would gain 500 for reaching the Final in Australia, and lose 600 for only getting to the Final at Wimbedon), whereas Murray's would be 10680 (picking up 1990 for Australia and 1500 for Wimbledon) giving him 10680. In fact, if Murray even beat Nadal in the French Final, he'd only go about 100 ahead of him. I guess it comes down to how much he 'outperforms' him. Certainly if he gets further than Nadal in every counting tournament between now and the US Open, (and the other two as well), then of course he will be Number 1 come the US Open, that's simple common sense, as the points he would make up would supercede Nadal's dropped points. Well now you're merely retreating into arguing semantics about the definition of the word "outperform" by which I quite clearly meant "earn more points than". It was YOU in the previous post who said that Murray could beat Nadal in every single final this year and still not be ranked ahead of him by the US Open which is absolute nonsense. Murray could beat Nadal in every final from now to the US Open, and there's no guarantee he'd be number 1 That's why I picked up on that remark. I didn't move any goalposts. You also said that there was no guarantee that if Murray was winning the "Race" come the US Open he;d be No. 1 when in fact that's exactly what it would guarantee since he's certainly winning SINCE the US Open to date. However, on re-reading what VI posted initially, what you have given as an example would meet what he said so I take your point on that. The debate moved on after that though and when I entered it it was in response to the winning the race doesn't mean he'd be number one point. It clearly does mean that. Edited January 13, 2009 by Skyline Drifter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 I use that site every week, and it's always been correct. There's no real reason to assume they've made a balls up this week. Fair enough, we'll see. I use the ATP Tour site a lot (not going to pretend it's every week though) and I've never seen it be wrong but clearly one of them is this time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 It was YOU in the previous post who said that Murray could beat Nadal in every single final Every final they meet, which could be none! (dig, dig) Fair enough, we'll see. I use the ATP Tour site a lot (not going to pretend it's every week though) and I've never seen it be wrong but clearly one of them is this time. The schedule's very rarely staggered, especially at this time of year, so usually the points which come off will correspond with the relevant tournament from the year before. However, every year, the players' Masters Cup points from the year before come off at least the week before the Masters Cup is played. Whereas if you look at Djokovic's link again, it says these points come off after the tournament this year, which never happens. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedWeb Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Seems Murray is getting under Fed's skin these days. Every time the Swiss master opens his trap he's having some sort of subtle dig at oor Andy. Thing is all he is doing is giving Murray even more motiviation which isn't a particularly clever strategy by the former world No 1. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Every final they meet, which could be none! (dig, dig) You didn't say "meet" though. You said "every final from now to the US Open". I've amended that post since you first answered it anyway and added the point that you also said that Murray winning the "Race" wouldn't guarantee him No 1 spot coming into the US Open when it clearly would. On the other point. I concede you are probably right. I expect the ATP Tour site just automatically fills in the Monday date following the final of this year's event. As you also said though, that's fairly irrelevent as within a further week it's back on track again. Olympics screwed up last year's schedule and also the rankings since those are points Nadal will drop without being able to replace them, there being no Olympics this year. Murray will get a major boost relative to Nadal and Federer (did Djokovic play?) that week without playing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Seems Murray is getting under Fed's skin these days. Every time the Swiss master opens his trap he's having some sort of subtle dig at oor Andy. What has he been saying? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 you also said that Murray winning the "Race" wouldn't guarantee him No 1 spot coming into the US Open when it clearly would. I refer the right honourable gentleman to the example I gave earlier about Murray and Nadal. Murray wouldn't be Number 1 in the rankings in that scenario, but would be number 1 in the 'race' (if it still existed), so winning the Race wouldn't guarantee him Number 1 spot. You don't defend any points in the race, and it runs January-December, rather than a rolling 12 month period. Hence why if the 'Race' was still happening, Murray would be leading it going into the Aussie Open next week, whereas he's not World Number 1. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 What has he been saying? Just that he's surprised AM is the bookie's favourite for the Australian open as he hasn't won a slam before. It kind of surprised me as well that Murray was favourite with the Aussie bookies, expected Federer to be favourite ahead of him. I suspected Murray would be favourite with the UK bookies, more due to expected volume of bets rather than "true" odds. Presumably he's been getting a lot of money lumped on him in Oz as well. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Just that he's surprised AM is the bookie's favourite for the Australian open as he hasn't won a slam before. It kind of surprised me as well that Murray was favourite with the Aussie bookies, expected Federer to be favourite ahead of him. Yeah, don't disagree with that comment really. I'd have Nadal slight favourite. It's an unusual situation though, with Federer in decline, Nadal not starting the season well and never having done well in Australia, and Djokovic looking underprepared. I think it could be a Thomas Johansson year, with a very surprising winner. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 I think it could be a Thomas Johansson year, with a very surprising winner. If they get a favourable draws, either Ernest Gulbis or Marin Cilic could be real dark horses for this tournament. I don't see the winner coming from outside the top four however. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 If they get a favourable draws, either Ernest Gulbis or Marin Cilic could be real dark horses for this tournament. I don't see the winner coming from outside the top four however. Yes, both along with Del Potro and Tsonga again are good shouts. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 I don't really know too much about tennis, but I'd love Hewitt to go on a fairytale run to the final and then get dismantled in straight sets. I hate his ugly face. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 By the way, here is Bryan's initial post on this very thread, from 2005. He is currently 145 in the world and is in the Final of a Challenger event in New York state, which is a 2nd string event(the events you do before you are on the main tour). He should get into the top 100 this year. What a difference now, eh? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 (edited) I refer the right honourable gentleman to the example I gave earlier about Murray and Nadal. Murray wouldn't be Number 1 in the rankings in that scenario, but would be number 1 in the 'race' (if it still existed), so winning the Race wouldn't guarantee him Number 1 spot. You don't defend any points in the race, and it runs January-December, rather than a rolling 12 month period. Hence why if the 'Race' was still happening, Murray would be leading it going into the Aussie Open next week, whereas he's not World Number 1. Er yes it would. Murray has got the most points of any of them from the US Open 08 to Jan 1st. If he also leads the 'Race' going into the US Open 2009 then as a matter of fact he will be No 1 in the world. This isn't difficult, I don't see why you're not getting it? He could conceivably marginally be No 1 in the world going into the US Open without being No 1 in the Race. There's not a scenario where he could be other way round so far as I can see. If he's no 1 in the Race he will by definition be No 1 in the world. He's already No 1 in the world for the period US Open to Race beginning. Edited January 13, 2009 by Skyline Drifter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 I don't really know too much about tennis, but I'd love Hewitt to go on a fairytale run to the final and then get dismantled in straight sets. I hate his ugly face. That has already happened It was great... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Murray has got the most points of any of them from the US Open 08 to Jan 1st. Race points from the US Open 08 to Jan 1st are irrelevant. They're reset to zero on 31st December. In fact, if Nadal had just 150 more ranking points right now, Murray could conceivably win the first three slams of the season, and still be behnd Nadal coming into the US Open. However, he'd probably be well clear in the 'race'. Apart from anything else, the points are (or were) also totally different. At the end of the year, the race table, and the rankings table should be pretty much the same, but halfway through the year, there's every chance of there being anomalies. As if to illustrate the point, take a look at these lists. The two links below show the race list, and the rankings list from the end of last season. Rankings Race The top 13 positions are identical, with only comestic changes in most of the others. Now, lets look at how the two lists looked after Wimbledon last year, Rankings Race You can see quite a few differences in the two lists, notably for Tsonga and Almagro. Murray himself isn't in the same position either. And look at the difference in Gasquet's position. Where you are in the race halfway through the season is no guarantee where you'd be in the Rankings at the same point. Apart from anything else, there may well be a stagger in the rankings at that point in the season too. Chances are Murray would be number 1 in the rankings if he was Number 1 in the race this year come the US Open, but it's not set in stone. All of this is seems to be a moot point, as I don't see race lists on either site for this year, I can only presume they've chucked that now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 (edited) Race points from the US Open 08 to Jan 1st are irrelevant. They're reset to zero on 31st December. In fact, if Nadal had just 150 more ranking points right now, Murray could conceivably win the first three slams of the season, and still be behnd Nadal coming into the US Open. However, he'd probably be well clear in the 'race'. Apart from anything else, the points are (or were) also totally different. At the end of the year, the race table, and the rankings table should be pretty much the same, but halfway through the year, there's every chance of there being anomalies. As if to illustrate the point, take a look at these lists. load of irrelevant stuff. It's like banging my head against a brick wall here! Points (be they 'race' points or rankings points) from US Open 08 to Jan 1st are NOT irrelevant. They are irrelevant as far as the race for 09 is concerned (if indeed there is one) but they are NOT irrelevant to the point I was making, namely that from commencement of US Open 08 until the start of 2009 Murray has the most ranking points accrued. If he therefore also leads the "Race" (and granted there may not be one in reality during 2009 but that's not relevant either) between Jan 1st and commencement of US Open 09 then he is BOUND to be No 1 in the world. This is a fact. It's not up for debate and it's not maybe / maybe not. You can continue to ignore those points all you like but ATP do not and they form part of the rankings points at the moment and will continue to do so until the US Open 2009. It's a rolling year. As week's add, weeks drop off. We will eventually reach a point where the US Open 2008 is the oldest tournament included in the rankings. AT THAT POINT, IF MURRAY LEADS THE 2009 POINTS TOTALS ('Race Points' if you like) THEN HE WILL BE No 1 IN THE WORLD. This is because he certainly has the most points of anyone that will remain from 2008's points. It is just conceivable that Murray could be No 1 in the world without having the most points in 2009 if for instance he's a close second in 2009 points because he would have a higher carrying total still included from 2008. It is NOT possible for it to be the other way. If Murray earns the most points between Jan 1st 2009 and the date immediately before US Open 2008 points drop off (whatever date that is) then he WILL be No 1 in the world. Has to be. He'd be carrying more points from 2008 than anyone else at that point and more points from 2009 than anyone else at that point. If that's not the case tell me why it isn't? I'm well aware that race points mid year may bear little relation to rankings lists. It has no relevance to the point I'm making. Edited January 13, 2009 by Skyline Drifter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 That has already happened It was great... yeah, it was Safin, wasn't it. It'd be even funnier if it happened again as Hewitt was quite well fancied at the time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virtual Insanity Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 (edited) It's like banging my head against a brick wall here! I'm giving up SD, it's all yours. Edit just to add these two quotes just in case you manage to convince Stewarty. If Murray is winning the 2009 Race come the start of the U.S. Open, he will be World No. 1. You won't be told, will you? Edited January 13, 2009 by Virtual Insanity 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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