General Politics Thread

[RedRob72]

4.6% Scotland 4.9% UK as of 8 weeks ago.  As if it's about unemployment anyway,  it's just your nationalism we're discussing not unemployment or the snp. 
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-37702087

The 5.3-4.8% figure was released yesterday Pep, not 2 months ago.
It's a perfectly legitimate question to ask over the stark difference in figures over the last quarter, (whether on here or on any of the multiple news outlets)? We are a sensitive little bunch this morning eh!?

[Peppino Impastato]

What question?   You've just said snp bad repeatedly you haven't asked a question.  It was lower in Scotland two months ago then and is a stat that fluctuates all the time,  you make no point other than you're a raging birtnat who probably cracks an absolute stauner any time any remotely bad news about Scotland comes out.

Edited December 16, 2016 by Peppino Impastato

[mjw]

The 5.3-4.8% figure was released yesterday Pep, not 2 months ago.
It's a perfectly legitimate question to ask over the stark difference in figures over the last quarter, (whether on here or on any of the multiple news outlets)? We are a sensitive little bunch this morning eh!?

You'll have a post 2 months ago asking the same question ?
You forget anyone reading this part of the forum long enough knows exactly what your agenda is.

[jakedee]

The 5.3-4.8% figure was released yesterday Pep, not 2 months ago.
It's a perfectly legitimate question to ask over the stark difference in figures over the last quarter, (whether on here or on any of the multiple news outlets)? We are a sensitive little bunch this morning eh!?

Seasonal figures,those damn foreigners can't pick berries in the winter, lazy bassa's [emoji57]

[RedRob72]

Seasonal figures,those damn foreigners can't pick berries in the winter, lazy bassa's [emoji57]

Wouldn't that be the same across the rest of the UK or do we only grow and pick summer fruits in Blairgowrie?

[jakedee]

Wouldn't that be the same across the rest of the UK or do we only grow and pick summer fruits in Blairgowrie?

nope,think you'll find most soft fruit comes from here,and the seasons seem to be a bit harsher.

[Granny Danger]

Heard the Labour spokesperson (James Kelly?) on the radio this morning talking about the budget.  He made some valid points but overall his presentation was absolutely woeful.  I seriously wonder if Labour in Scotland will ever manage to attract folk of quality again.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

Unemployment figures are the greatest lie propagated by successive governments. Notice they never publish a figure which would be more useful - those earning enough from these fantastic jobs to be benefit-free.
Zero hours contracts on minimum wage are not what I would call "employed".

[jmothecat]

Heard the Labour spokesperson (James Kelly?) on the radio this morning talking about the budget.  He made some valid points but overall his presentation was absolutely woeful.  I seriously wonder if Labour in Scotland will ever manage to attract folk of quality again.

Probably not. Huge problem with Labour at the moment, both here and in the rest of the U.K., I think they are making some good points but the presentation is awful. E.g. This single about wages. Great idea, an issue that I really want to see discussed but a weird embarrassing single? Awful.

[jakedee]

Did Andrew Neil really just suggest business tax was introduced by the SNP, on Daily Politics ?

[Jimbo Jagsfan]

4 hours ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Unemployment figures are the greatest lie propagated by successive governments. Notice they never publish a figure which would be more useful - those earning enough from these fantastic jobs to be benefit-free.
Zero hours contracts on minimum wage are not what I would call "employed".

My wife used to work for the Office for National Statistics and conducted the 'laboutforce survey' to count the unemployment rate. This was done the same way all throughout the EU and so the figures were comparable for all EU countries for benefits/subsidies etc.. It was based on a random household selection and follow up over 5 calendar quarters to get the trends. This picked up things like people who were 'underemployed' such as working part-time and who wanted to work full time.

This also counted people who were, for example, unemployed but not claiming any benefits.

When you get the Unemployment Rate from the TV, it is usually stated to be something like 'The number of people unemployed and claiming benefits' which understates the actual figures.  

[Ryan Biddle]

Germany on the verge of diplomatic scandal with Turkey

[DeeTillEhDeh]

One-off unemployment figures are meaningless - it's the overall trend that matters.

[hehawhehaw]

39 minutes ago, Ryan Biddle said:

Germany on the verge of diplomatic scandal with Turkey

I don't give the eu any credit for much, but this will go a long way to keeping it European. 

[doulikefish]

Fun and games in the failed statelet on monday

[RedRob72]

Fun and games in the failed statelet on monday

Deeply distrust Johnathan Bell, why did he sit on it (failure of the RHI) for so long? Worrying times for Foster & the DUP though!

[mjw]

Who do they pray to?
Does it finish with amen one day and for god and ulster the next?

[GTG_03]

Did Andrew Neil really just suggest business tax was introduced by the SNP, on Daily Politics ?

He did. He also stated the fraser of allander institute wasn't independent. I do enjoy watching Andrew Neil struggle.

[Dunning1874]

21 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Heard the Labour spokesperson (James Kelly?) on the radio this morning talking about the budget.  He made some valid points but overall his presentation was absolutely woeful.  I seriously wonder if Labour in Scotland will ever manage to attract folk of quality again.

He held posts throughout the last parliament as well, but the fact someone as useless as James Kelly is their spokesperson for anything says a lot about the absolute state of Scottish Labour.

[Dunning1874]

On 15/12/2016 at 16:24, Peppino Impastato said:

Yeah good job all you fuckin cretins who were like give the greens your second vote that's worked out well eh.  to achieve independence the snp need to own holyrood, anything that undermines the snp government damages the cause of independence,  and that's all the greens do.  Watch the unionist media have a fuckin party with this,  every time something Li, e this happens independence loses votes.

Sorry for the essay, but let's break this down and look at each seat the Greens won.

They won 2 seats in Lothian, 1 in Glasgow, 1 in Highlands & Islands, 1 in Mid & Fife, 1 in West. Here's the list of who was next in line for the seats on the final round of the list, and how many more votes the SNP would have needed to take it.

In Lothian, the Greens took seats in rounds 2 & 7 on the list. Labour were next in line for seat number 7. The SNP needed another 2394 votes to take the seat, with the Greens having taken 34551 votes in total, so a small portion of Green voters switching would have won the SNP the seat ahead of the Greens. In that case, it is feasible that SNP supporters tactically giving the Greens their second vote cost the SNP a seat in favour of the Greens - for comparison, the SNP took 137,996 constituency votes & 118,546 list votes.

In Glasgow, the Greens took their seat in round 4. Seat number 7 went to Labour, with the Greens next in line. The SNP needed another 36790 votes to take the seat, with the Greens taking 23398 votes in total. If every single Green voter had voted SNP it would have given their seat to the Tories rather than the SNP. To flip it round the other way, the Greens needed 3090 more votes to take the seat ahead of Labour, while the SNP took 111101 votes with no return.

In H&I, the Greens took their seat in Round 5, with the SNP taking one in Round 6. Seat number 7 went to Labour, with the Tories next in line. The SNP needed another 9984 votes to take the seat, with the Greens taking 14781. While Green voters switching to SNP could have won the SNP the seat, you'd have needed about 70% of Green voters to switch - is it likely that such a high proportion were natural SNP supporters voting tactically?

In Mid & Fife, the Greens took their seat in Round 7 with Labour missing out. The SNP needed another 40608 votes to take the seat, with the Greens taking 17860 votes in total. If every single Green vote had gone to the SNP, their seat would have gone to Labour rather than the SNP. Again to flip it round the other way, the Greens would have needed 18788 more votes to take another seat ahead of the Tories, while the SNP took 120128 votes with no return.

In West, the Greens took their seat in Round 7 with the SNP next in line, so of course if every Green voter had voted SNP instead then the SNP would have taken the seat - the Greens were 2436 ahead out of a total of 17528 voters. Again for comparison, the SNP took 148,659 constituency votes & 135,827 list votes, so the drop off is again within the margin of votes the SNP needed from the Greens.

By all means blame people who voted Green - some of whom were SNP supporters switching tactically, some of whom were Green supporters who voted SNP in their constituency due to the lack of a Green candidate - for the SNP not getting a majority, but you might be more interested to look at dreadful campaigns which saw the SNP lose two constituencies to the Lib Dems and one to Labour, while failing to gain two winnable seats from Labour. The SNP should have won a majority on constituencies alone; it's not the SGP's fault they didn't.