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Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.


John Lambies Doos

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One thought is that if the only way to stop a hard brexit was calling a GE, enough remain Tories might vote with the opposition to carry a VONC in the Government leading to a probable extension of A50. That would be the best outcome, come to think of it. Doubt there's enough Tory vertebrates though.  And it would be dangerous if both the ERG and Labour played a waiting game till early March.

 

Edited by welshbairn
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Corbyn going for the VONC in order to get the attempt at forcing a general election out the way?
It’ll fail, but then Labour can say ‘we tried’ and move for a 2nd referendum.
Perhaps?


That’s what the Labour centrists and the SNP etc want. I assume Corbyn’s calling their bluff. No party here is playing this honestly.
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Still not convinced that they have the arithmetic to get a 2nd Ref through the Commons....obviously Lab, Libs, and SNP on board......DUP and the vast majority of Tories against. Also think some Lab MP's would either vote against it or abstain.

There is a bit of a narrative building (probably via social media, that a 2nd Ref is both a foregone conclusion now and also a walkover victory for Remain). Not convinced on either point tbh.

Current prediction.....there will be a lot of hot air about a 2nd Ref over the next few weeks...leading to a Commons vote which will narrowly reject holding one. Next up is the vote on May's deal, by then it will be presented entirely as that or no deal, leading to a majority to get hers over the line. ..The DUP to fall into line with platitudes about having been reassured the backstop is unlikely to ever happen.

On the point of the Indy Ref and the White Paper, absolutely agree that it was like a large library worth of info compared to the EU Ref. However, the number of times during the campaign that I heard the words...'we just dont have enough information' was breathtaking.

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6 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

 


That’s what the Labour centrists and the SNP etc want. I assume Corbyn’s calling their bluff. No party here is playing this honestly.

 

Kind of like Granny asked, if Momentum go against Corbyn over Brexit is there someone else they would support?

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2 minutes ago, Jedi said:

Still not convinced that they have the arithmetic to get a 2nd Ref through the Commons....obviously Lab, Libs, and SNP on board......DUP and the vast majority of Tories against. Also think some Lab MP's would either vote against it or abstain.

There is a bit of a narrative building (probably via social media, that a 2nd Ref is both a foregone conclusion now and also a walkover victory for Remain). Not convinced on either point tbh.

 

And we have to remember a good few remain MP's represent Leave constituencies. Much more of them than Kate Hoey.

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Never thought I'd say this but Go, Jacob Go! 

Quote

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter, congratulated May on winning the no confidence vote last week. He says she now has his confidence. (That is not what he said the morning after, when he told the Today programme that, even though she won, she should still resign.) He says a second referendum would be a “losers’ vote”, and would encourage the Scottish nationalists to hold a second independence referendum.

 

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1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

Corbyn's tabled a VONC in May, not the Government, so it means nothing. It will be interesting to see how the ERG lot vote if it goes ahead.

 

May should be tabling a VONC in Corbyn - and what a shambolic performance from Barry Gardiner in an interview with Jon Snow.

34 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Kind of like Granny asked, if Momentum go against Corbyn over Brexit is there someone else they would support?

Keir Starmer

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You need to tell that to Single Market members who are not members of the EU.

Norway.

Iceland.

Switzerland.

The ignorance of a lot Brexiters never ceases to amaze me.
That would need to be negotiated. EEA has free movement which would mean that model couldn't be implemented as even David Cameron came back with an emergency brake option.

What's a 'lot Brexiters'?

You assume my ignorance, yours is quite clear.
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40 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Kind of like Granny asked, if Momentum go against Corbyn over Brexit is there someone else they would support?

 

McDonnell's positioning himself in the press as a europhile but I would be surprised if he turned on Corbyn since the majority of the membership and Corbyn supporting MPs understand and trust the strategy on Brexit.

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8 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

May should be tabling a VONC in Corbyn - and what a shambolic performance from Barry Gardiner in an interview with Jon Snow.

Keir Starmer

Nah, no chance. If there's anyone who's popular with the membership and savvy enough to betray the left of the party at the most opportune moment it's Emily Thornberry. Most people in the party can see through Starmer.

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I think if anyone is expecting the Labour Party to conjure up a path out of the current mayhem then they're wasting their time. As I've already written on here, Corbyn is precisely the wrong man at the wrong time; an ideologue as opposed to a politician. Listening to him again berating May today I was reminded of Denis Healey's memorable put-down of Geoffrey Howe.

We may well be falling for May's deal by default, and if there is any serious risk of a No Deal materialising I would expect the business community to rattle the UK Government far harder than anyone in Westminster.

There's actually now a growing desire on my part to let them do their worst just to see the reaction of Little Britain as the horrors begin to unfold.

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24 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

 

McDonnell's positioning himself in the press as a europhile but I would be surprised if he turned on Corbyn since the majority of the membership and Corbyn supporting MPs understand and trust the strategy on Brexit.

McDonnell and Leadsome give off the same vibe, practiced tone of "I'm just being reasonable" with a smiley face, then daggers out. Bit like the early days of Goebbels and Stalin probably.  What is the strategy on Brexit?

Edited by welshbairn
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