Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Academically Deficient]

Disgraced former minister Liam Fox on the radio there, being asked to justify no-deal Brexit causing economic misery.

His reply? People voted to take back control.

I suspect this will be the line from now on. "It's not our fault, you voted for it".

[Granny Danger]

4 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

It could cost them in middle class constituencies. The further west in the province you go from Belfast the less likely it is to have a great effect.

The DUP very much overplayed their hand and completely ignored the fact that NI voted remain, fixated as they were on the overall national vote.

They did get a tranche of money, which was very acceptable, but I'm not sure whether it's all been spent or some of it had to be handed back/deducted from other subventions.

I know NI voted Remain, but was the Remain v Leave vote not very much on nationalist v unionist lines?

[Jacksgranda]

1 minute ago, Granny Danger said:

I know NI voted Remain, but was the Remain v Leave vote not very much on nationalist v unionist lines?

This is the second time you've come out with this - had that been the case NI would have voted "Leave", it was 56% to 44% for Remain, turn out was 63%.

In the 2019 general election unionists got 43% of the vote, nationalist/republican 38.9% and Alliance and Greens 17%, which would be mainly on the unionist side of the fence. Turn out was 62%.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

This is the second time you've come out with this - had that been the case NI would have voted "Leave", it was 56% to 44% for Remain, turn out was 63%.

In the 2019 general election unionists got 43% of the vote, nationalist/republican 38.9% and Alliance and Greens 17%, which would be mainly on the unionist side of the fence. Turn out was 62%.

 

He did say “very much” on nationalist vs unionist lines as opposed to “totally ”

 

It’s clear that there’s at least some correlation but the question would quite be how strong that correlation is compared to other factors like age, education, income etc...

 

As our Northern Ireland correspondent, our man on the ground, you’re probably well placed to elucidate

 

 

 

 

[coprolite]

9 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

So how would the UK cope if a country (say China) started dumping their excess on our markets?

Edit: "fucking crickets".

WTO rules let countries impose special tarrifs if there's a specific dispute, which deliberate dumping would count as. The line between "dumping" and "producing more cheaply" is quite blurry though. 

Whether we would have the political will to fight China is another matter. 

We probably lack the size needed to act in a meaningful way. If there were other similar countries we could team up with, that could help. 

[bendan]

10 minutes ago, coprolite said:

WTO rules let countries impose special tarrifs if there's a specific dispute, which deliberate dumping would count as. The line between "dumping" and "producing more cheaply" is quite blurry though. 

Whether we would have the political will to fight China is another matter. 

We probably lack the size needed to act in a meaningful way. If there were other similar countries we could team up with, that could help. 

The discussion was also about agricultural produce. I'd be interested to know what products, and from where, this threat is going to come. Most fresh produce is expensive to move long distances. Products that are easier to trade tend to have similar domestic prices already.

[John Lambies Doos]

I'd be interested to know if the DUP are likely to suffer electoral from this? They backed a policy which put a border in the Irish Sea and I imagine a lot of their supporters won't thank them for that.
I don't follow politics in NI, just interested to know your thoughts?

Did they, I thought they were adamant that there would be no Irish Sea border, that's why they wouldn't support May's deal. Coupled with that they backed the NI protocols in withdrawal bill that also prevented it. It was the UK Government that dropped these elements. Unless I'm missing something, when did the DUP back a sea border?

[coprolite]

5 minutes ago, bendan said:

The discussion was also about agricultural produce. I'd be interested to know what products, and from where, this threat is going to come. Most fresh produce is expensive to move long distances. Products that are easier to trade tend to have similar domestic prices already.

There are a lot of moving parts that mean it's pretty tricky to predict. 

As i touched on earlier though, the price of domestic production isn't fixed and can also depend on barriers on inputs. Non tarrif barriers are very important here. Things like rules on GM animal feed will have potentially more impact on competitiveness than a modest tarrif and could potentially cut off whole markets. 

If we drop safety requirements on beef products then US producers will be able to compete easily in the UK. 

Previously mentioned sugar beets. They're way more expensive than cane and only viable due to tarrifs. If we wanted a deal with Brazil or India those tarrifs would have to be on the table. 

 

 

 

[Academically Deficient]

2 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

1 hour ago, Academically Deficient said:

I'd be interested to know if the DUP are likely to suffer electoral from this? They backed a policy which put a border in the Irish Sea and I imagine a lot of their supporters won't thank them for that.
I don't follow politics in NI, just interested to know your thoughts?

Did they, I thought they were adamant that there would be no Irish Sea border, that's why they wouldn't support May's deal. Coupled with that they backed the NI protocols in withdrawal bill that also prevented it. It was the UK Government that dropped these elements. Unless I'm missing something, when did the DUP back a sea border?

No, sorry. What I meant was that they backed Brexit, and it is that which led to the Irish Sea border. Unintended consequences and that.

[bendan]

57 minutes ago, coprolite said:

Non tarrif barriers are very important here.

 

Yes, I think that's the point a lot of people don't seem to get. Apart from a few select products like beef, lamb and cheese, tariffs are not that high and not so high that they'd be any more insurmountable than exchange rate fluctuations. It's non-tariff barriers like sanitary and phytosanitary standards that prevent a lot of trade. Few people in the UK would want us to drop our standards on meat, so irrespective of tariffs, there are few places outside of the EU that would be able to supply us.

Edited December 14, 2020 by bendan

[Fullerene]

55 minutes ago, Academically Deficient said:

No, sorry. What I meant was that they backed Brexit, and it is that which led to the Irish Sea border. Unintended consequences and that.

They also firmly believed that Ireland would also decide to leave the EU simply because the UK had decided to do so.  I doubt any politician in Ireland would dare to suggest doing this.

If the EU referendum had been carried out simultaneously in both countries and was then based on the combined vote - we would not be leaving.

[Dev]

8 minutes ago, Fullerene said:

They also firmly believed that Ireland would also decide to leave the EU simply because the UK had decided to do so.  I doubt any politician in Ireland would dare to suggest doing this.

If the EU referendum had been carried out simultaneously in both countries and was then based on the combined vote - we would not be leaving.

Where did you see that?

[SANTAN]

2 hours ago, Academically Deficient said:

Disgraced former minister Liam Fox on the radio there, being asked to justify no-deal Brexit causing economic misery.

His reply? People voted to take back control.

I suspect this will be the line from now on. "It's not our fault, you voted for it".

What did Liam Fox do to be disgraced, I must've missed that one??

[SANTAN]

34 minutes ago, Fullerene said:

They also firmly believed that Ireland would also decide to leave the EU simply because the UK had decided to do so.  I doubt any politician in Ireland would dare to suggest doing this.

If the EU referendum had been carried out simultaneously in both countries and was then based on the combined vote - we would not be leaving.

As in if both countries in Ireland voted on Britain leaving the EU...? 

[Jacksgranda]

1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

3 hours ago, Academically Deficient said:

I'd be interested to know if the DUP are likely to suffer electoral from this? They backed a policy which put a border in the Irish Sea and I imagine a lot of their supporters won't thank them for that.
I don't follow politics in NI, just interested to know your thoughts?

Did they, I thought they were adamant that there would be no Irish Sea border, that's why they wouldn't support May's deal. Coupled with that they backed the NI protocols in withdrawal bill that also prevented it. It was the UK Government that dropped these elements. Unless I'm missing something, when did the DUP back a sea border?

They've accepted the present proposals,albeit reluctantly, so de facto backing a border in the Irish Sea.

[btb]

20 minutes ago, Dev said:

Where did you see that?

Might not have been the DUP but some of the more Brexity Brexiteers suggested that it would be untenable for RoI to remain inside the EU if we left - can't really remember the details of their argument but I found this from an old Grauniad article from around the time the delectable Priti Patel said we should use the threat of food shortages to pressurise the Republic to drop demands for the backstop.

Quote

A government report, leaked to the Times, indicated that there could be food shortages in Ireland in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

It said the economic impact on Ireland would be worse than in the UK.

The report indicated that there would be a 7% drop in GDP for Ireland.

The equivalent UK drop would be 5%.

 

[Fullerene]

53 minutes ago, Dev said:

Where did you see that?

An interview with Ian Paisley Junior MP.  He said the whole issue was simple.  If Ireland leaves the EU as well then there would be no need for a hard border.  

[Fullerene]

28 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

As in if both countries in Ireland voted on Britain leaving the EU...? 

If the UK and Ireland had a joint referendum to decide if the UK and Ireland should both leave the EU.

A narrow win for leave in the UK combined with a large win for remain in Ireland (i.e. ROI) would have resulted in  a combined result that was for Remain.

[coprolite]

1 hour ago, bendan said:

Yes, I think that's the point a lot of people don't seem to get. Apart from a few select products like beef, lamb and cheese, tariffs are not that high and not so high that they'd be any more insurmountable than exchange rate fluctuations. It's non-tariff barriers like sanitary and phytosanitary standards that prevent a lot of trade. Few people in the UK would want us to drop our standards on meat, so irrespective of tariffs, there are few places outside of the EU that would be able to supply us.

Agreed, but those that can could have significant impacts. Thai chicken without tarrifs will be even cheaper and i don't expect what people want will figure very heavily when we take a length from the States and let in their chemical laced beef. 

51 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

What did Liam Fox do to be disgraced, I must've missed that one??

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60517/allegations-fox.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiV5oWPss3tAhXLYcAKHSf5BbkQFjACegQIDBAB&usg=AOvVaw24gm-vrizxHk7uyDMoH_YU

It was front page news and top of the tv bulletins for days. Unless you're going with the new Tory position that the ministerial code is for losers. 

[Jacksgranda]

29 minutes ago, Fullerene said:

An interview with Ian Paisley Junior MP.  He said the whole issue was simple.  If Ireland leaves the EU as well then there would be no need for a hard border.  

That's a bit different from "firmly believing Ireland would decide to leave the EU".

If there is No Deal, Ireland is going to be in a bigger mess than we are, by all accounts, so a deal will be stitched together or Ireland will be given substantial support.

ETA: Brexit: What would no deal mean for Ireland’s economy? - BBC News

Edited December 14, 2020 by Jacksgranda
Update