Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

35 minutes ago, speckled tangerine said:

I will vote for independence every day of the week and twice on Sunday, and being a part of the EU is key to this.

Can you imagine the EU negotiating a deal as bad as the Australian one? Me neither.

Oh, be fair. analysis on LBC this morning reckons that this deal, compared with previous status, will benefit every man woman and child in the UK by...

£1.21.

 

A year. 

 

 

In a best-case scenario. 

[bendan]

14 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

 

The problem I think is that Brexit is undoubtedly going to make Britain generally worse off for no discernibly good reason yet the constant catastrophising (have I made up this word why is my autocorrect having a meltdown) means that things just getting gradually worse is viewed as a success.

There really has to be a comprehensive analysis of just how badly every single person involved with Remain before and after the referendum made a complete arse of it.

 

I don't know if it's a modern phenomenon but 'catastrophising' seems more and more common (minor inconvenience = 'lives destroyed').

Like you said, we end up worse off but it's not that dramatic and no one really notices in their day to day lives. The catastrophisers look like arses.

 

[speckled tangerine]

Empirical I know, but prior to this "deal", the Irish farmers saw an opportunity. There's always been a market in the UK for Irish beef. McDonald's being a case in point. It reckoned up to 40% in the UK alone:

"Amazingly, 1 in 5 hamburgers sold in McDonald's across Europe is of Irish origin. That means we're the largest buyer of Irish beef by volume every year - purchasing 40,000 tonnes."

The point is that the optimism has diminished in Ireland with regard to the UK market as Australia can, with ranch style size farms, hormones and pesticides produce a product cheaper. It won't do our farmers any favours and likely cut Irish imports.

The irish will still have a decent market on the continent, but will your Galloway farmer if his prices are uncompetitive and his market being slaughtered (pun intended) at home? 

[speckled tangerine]

4 minutes ago, TAFKAM said:

@speckled tangerine was it you who had family catching prawns on the west coast? How's things with them now?

No TAFKAM, that wasn't me mate, but I'd like to know how that fellas shellfishing family are doing. It was absolutely tragic what happened/is happening to that industry.

Edited June 16, 2021 by speckled tangerine

[speckled tangerine]

Might as well shut the countryside then........

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/australia-trade-deal-tariffs-farmers-b1866496.html

"

Tariffs will be scrapped immediately on imported beef and lamb from Australia, triggering accusations that the trade deal struck by Boris Johnson will send UK farmers “to the wall”.

The small print of the first major post-Brexit agreement – revealed by Canberra, as the UK government tried to keep it under wraps – revealed a pledge to protect farmers for 15 years has been dropped."

[bendan]

1 hour ago, speckled tangerine said:

Empirical I know, but prior to this "deal", the Irish farmers saw an opportunity. There's always been a market in the UK for Irish beef. McDonald's being a case in point. It reckoned up to 40% in the UK alone:

"Amazingly, 1 in 5 hamburgers sold in McDonald's across Europe is of Irish origin. That means we're the largest buyer of Irish beef by volume every year - purchasing 40,000 tonnes."

The point is that the optimism has diminished in Ireland with regard to the UK market as Australia can, with ranch style size farms, hormones and pesticides produce a product cheaper. It won't do our farmers any favours and likely cut Irish imports.

The irish will still have a decent market on the continent, but will your Galloway farmer if his prices are uncompetitive and his market being slaughtered (pun intended) at home? 

So the Irish farmers are laughing. But they're not laughing. Scott Morrison is laughing. And the Galloway farmer is threatened by beef imports. Unless they come from Ireland. Or any of the other 26 EU countries. 

[Dawson Park Boy]

I think a little context is required here.

At present the UK imports about 500tons of beef from Australia.
Even if this was increased 10times to 5000tons it is still peanuts as a proportion of UK annual consumption of around 1mn tons.

People will look for anything to moan about if it fits their cause.

[speckled tangerine]

13 minutes ago, bendan said:

So the Irish farmers are laughing. But they're not laughing. Scott Morrison is laughing. And the Galloway farmer is threatened by beef imports. Unless they come from Ireland. Or any of the other 26 EU countries. 

Are you being deliberately obtuse? 

In summary and again empirically, the Irish farmers could not believe the UK voted for brexit specifically the loudmouth pro brexit mega farmers.

They saw this as a great opportunity to export more to the UK but, with the signing of this Australian deal they feel that cheap low quality imports will damage their exports to the UK.

My view is that this deal will significantly damage the UK beef industry. Ergo, Irish farmers will lose, UK farmers will lose and Aussie farmers will benefit. Scott Morrison is dancing a jig.

Feel free to disagree, but is there anything you don't understand or will I do it again in crayon with pictures?

 

[bendan]

8 minutes ago, speckled tangerine said:

Are you being deliberately obtuse? 

In summary and again empirically, the Irish farmers could not believe the UK voted for brexit specifically the loudmouth pro brexit mega farmers.

They saw this as a great opportunity to export more to the UK but, with the signing of this Australian deal they feel that cheap low quality imports will damage their exports to the UK.

My view is that this deal will significantly damage the UK beef industry. Ergo, Irish farmers will lose, UK farmers will lose and Aussie farmers will benefit. Scott Morrison is dancing a jig.

Feel free to disagree, but is there anything you don't understand or will I do it again in crayon with pictures?

 

Irish farmers did not see Brexit as a good opportunity to export more to the UK. You simply don't know what you are talking about, and are thus forced into the kind of 'catastrophising' mentioned earlier.

Edited June 16, 2021 by bendan

[speckled tangerine]

4 minutes ago, bendan said:

Irish farmers did not see Brexit as a good opportunity to export more to the UK. You simply don't know what you are talking about, and are thus forced into the kind of 'catastrophising' mentioned earlier.

I'll go back and tell my brother in law, all his farming mates and colleagues plus the local guy from the Kerry Irish Farmers Association that they were talking shite. Are you an Irish farmer Bendan? No? Then f**k off. Look up the meaning of "empirical" whilst you're at it.

[SANTAN]

I know some guys who know some guys who say that's wrong. Their is a big group of them and they agree with me, trust me. 

[Dawson Park Boy]

1 hour ago, TAFKAM said:

It's being increased to 175000 tonnes

According to the Guardian a maximum ten fold increase would give 17500 tons. Still very small.

Have you added an extra zero?

[coprolite]

3 hours ago, bendan said:

I don't know if it's a modern phenomenon but 'catastrophising' seems more and more common (minor inconvenience = 'lives destroyed').

Like you said, we end up worse off but it's not that dramatic and no one really notices in their day to day lives. The catastrophisers look like arses.

 

Distribution effects mean that for some communities and individuals it will be a massive change. Barely viable hill farms or small fisheries go from being viable to not.  

There will be some success stories as well, some might be dramatic. 

Most of the "catastrophe" stories came from gammon strawmen though and not remainers, like:

Remainer: it's likely that over the next decade brexit will result in the average person in the uk being 5% poorer than they'd otherwise have been. 

Twat: this is project fear, we won't end up like Somalia just because we stand up to Brussels. 

[bendan]

1 hour ago, speckled tangerine said:

I'll go back and tell my brother in law, all his farming mates and colleagues plus the local guy from the Kerry Irish Farmers Association that they were talking shite. Are you an Irish farmer Bendan? No? Then f**k off. Look up the meaning of "empirical" whilst you're at it.

Can you explain to someone as thick as me how Brexit would help RoI farmers to *increase* exports to the UK? You're in flat earth territory.

They may well have believed it would help them increase exports to the EU, due to less competition from the UK. Perhaps you misunderstood?

 

[btb]

The Brexit problems feed on each other, Britain is in a weak position and signing a Trade Deal with Australia where food standards are a worry will make the EU unlikely to concede anything on the sosijes  issue. 

[speckled tangerine]

6 minutes ago, bendan said:

Can you explain to someone as thick as me how Brexit would help RoI farmers to *increase* exports to the UK? You're in flat earth territory.

They may well have believed it would help them increase exports to the EU, due to less competition from the UK. Perhaps you misunderstood?

 

Something like 50% of Ireland's beef exports go to the UK. The trade the other way is considerably less. They suspected that this would continue and some sort of deal would be cobbled together over Norn Iron. Some also believed that an intransigent UK would find it hard to export to Europe. British beef markets itself as "premium" with a premium price and therefore unaffordable when a good quality Irish alternative costs 20% less.

That was the rationale but I guess we'll know by 2022 how this plans out.

 

[bendan]

1 minute ago, speckled tangerine said:

Something like 50% of Ireland's beef exports go to the UK. The trade the other way is considerably less. They suspected that this would continue and some sort of deal would be cobbled together over Norn Iron. Some also believed that an intransigent UK would find it hard to export to Europe. British beef markets itself as "premium" with a premium price and therefore unaffordable when a good quality Irish alternative costs 20% less.

That was the rationale but I guess we'll know by 2022 how this plans out.

 

Your first two points are entirely correct (Ireland exports a lot of beef to the UK, the UK exports little to Ireland) and not disputed by anyone. But you've said nothing that suggests they thought Brexit was an opportunity for them to export more to the UK. It makes no sense at all to believe it would, and in the many, many Irish press articles I read about Brexit, I never read aa single person make that claim.

Here's what Meat Industry Ireland thought before Brexit:

“If we end up in a tariff scenario there is going to be huge issues for the sector, you’re meeting a tariff wall that, on the beef side, is about 72pc tariff.

“If a deal is done and there aren’t tariffs, you’re into new complications of logistics, extra administration, customs and veterinary formalities and export certifications if using the UK land bridge to trade with the continent – all of that is bringing another layer of complexity, delay and cost,” said Healy, adding that it’s understood the UK will require export certificates from April 1 next year.

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/beef/uk-will-still-require-irish-beef-in-january-2021-meat-processors-39779312.html

 

[bendan]

29 minutes ago, coprolite said:

Distribution effects mean that for some communities and individuals it will be a massive change. Barely viable hill farms or small fisheries go from being viable to not.  

There will be some success stories as well, some might be dramatic. 

Most of the "catastrophe" stories came from gammon strawmen though and not remainers, like:

Remainer: it's likely that over the next decade brexit will result in the average person in the uk being 5% poorer than they'd otherwise have been. 

Twat: this is project fear, we won't end up like Somalia just because we stand up to Brussels. 

You might well be right. There were certainly Brexit loons creating strawmen to tear down. But you are inserting this into a thread in which a non-Brexiteer has literally just claimed you 'might as well shut down the countryside'.

[The_Kincardine]

37 minutes ago, bendan said:

Can you explain to someone as thick as me how Brexit would help RoI farmers to *increase* exports to the UK? You're in flat earth territory.

I'm not a Brexit supporter in the slightest and would prefer we could roll the clock back to 2016.

However, what we know from history - and especially what an Gorta Mór  teaches us - is that Irish farmers are a resilient bunch and will keep exporting in whatever circumstances.

[bendan]

2 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

I'm not a Brexit supporter in the slightest and would prefer we could roll the clock back to 2016.

However, what we know from history - and especially what an Gorta Mór  teaches us - is that Irish farmers are a resilient bunch and will keep exporting in whatever circumstances.

They are indeed, but it's still sh*te to say they saw Brexit as an opportunity to export more *to the UK* as has been claimed.