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2017 election post-mortem


ICTChris

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f**k knows but it would surely be a total shambles if labour done a deal with the other parties to effectively give them control so surely that would be a trigger for something to happen? Or would the Tories face another few years of minority govt and have to tailor every policy/bill to the point where it wasmt even thwirs anymore? In which case they would have betrayed their voters/manifesto anyway (more so than usual)

If it got as far as the Tories having no majority, then you'd be in the realms of having a no confidence vote if a Queen's speech or budget got voted down. Then you'd be looking at a new election most likely.
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McSpreader [emoji28]

FWIW, my take on the result is that the SNP is now threatened in two distinct constituencies - rural affluent no voting areas by the Tories and deprived urban areas by Labour. There's obviously crossover between the two thanks to tactical voting etc but that's a good enough explanation. Unfortunately there is only one of those demographics we've a credible chance at regaining any time soon imo, and so I would say the party needs to go a bit bolder on lefty stuff. The problem with that approach is why vote SNP when you can vote Corbyn and get the 'real deal'. Ultimately the only advantage I can see they have is that they're actually in government so have the ability to do stuff - they need to make some big bold announcements. The SNP has exceeded expectations in a big way in 2 major elections - 2011 and 2015. 2015 was based on an unrepeatable post referendum swing, and 2011 was down to big and bold government since 2011. What we've been doing since then hasn't cut it in the same way. If there is a new Westminster election any time soon we will lose more seats - looking at the individual results suggests there isn't necessarily a floor, too...

Making Ian Blackford WM leader doesn't fill me with optimism either. Obviously the FM calls the shots, but a former investment banker representing a rural area does not strike me as who we need. Maybe he'll prove me wrong but I think we would have been better off with Sheppard.

A sensible post.Surely there is no place for you on here.
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15 hours ago, McSpreader said:

Actualy no I'm not ......I voted Tory at GE2017 to beat the SNP.....I've always voted Labour.

So, as a Labour supporter who wants a Labour government, you voted for the Tories (the party trying to beat Labour into government) in order to keep out the SNP (a party on record as saying they would never help the Tories into government but would happily help Labour do so), thus making a Labour government less likely and helping the Tories into government? That makes perfect sense.

Damn you nationalists and your single-issue constitutional obsession!

5 hours ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

FWIW, my take on the result is that the SNP is now threatened in two distinct constituencies - rural affluent no voting areas by the Tories and deprived urban areas by Labour. There's obviously crossover between the two thanks to tactical voting etc but that's a good enough explanation. Unfortunately there is only one of those demographics we've a credible chance at regaining any time soon imo, and so I would say the party needs to go a bit bolder on lefty stuff. The problem with that approach is why vote SNP when you can vote Corbyn and get the 'real deal'. Ultimately the only advantage I can see they have is that they're actually in government so have the ability to do stuff - they need to make some big bold announcements. The SNP has exceeded expectations in a big way in 2 major elections - 2011 and 2015. 2015 was based on an unrepeatable post referendum swing, and 2011 was down to big and bold government since 2007. What we've been doing since then hasn't cut it in the same way. If there is a new Westminster election any time soon we will lose more seats - looking at the individual results suggests there isn't necessarily a floor, too...

Yeah, you can understand why the SNP have been tempted to play it safe and be all things to all voters since 2011, and especially since 2015, but this is now the time to be more radical. I think some commentators are vastly overstating how bad a night it was for the SNP and how bad a night it was for the prospects of a future referendum long-term, but their forward momentum has been halted and they need to find a way to regain it.

Radical policy initiatives are the way to return to their competence in government being the central focus of debate and will allow them to set the agenda of that debate as they did so successfully in 2011, rather than only having their record in government brought up when Labour & Lib Dems are attacking on education & the NHS. If they have recent and radical policy successes to point to, that would also allow them to show up Davidson's repeated one-trick non-sequitur 'get on with the day job' attack for the vacuous nonsense it is.

The obvious place to go with this is revisiting council tax and land reform. It's something that can be made to work and provide a politically demonstrable success story in the short term, whereas education and the NHS can't and just as importantly shouldn't have short-term policies thrown at long-term problems to give the government of the day a boost. The SNP were attacked when they published their proposals for not being radical enough even from within their own party and the Tories are already comparing Sturgeon to Mugabe for the watered down stuff they've previously put forward so they're already drawing hate from the right over the issue anyway.

If they put forward a genuinely radical proposal on a Council Tax replacement they wouldn't need to worry about their minority causing it to fail as the Greens would jump at a radical proposal with Land Value Tax having been their policy for years, and it would put Scottish Labour in an awkward position. Oppose it for opposition's sake, they find themselves opposing the SNP from the right and any popularity on Corbyn's coat-tails is at risk. Back it, and they're helping an SNP policy get through, which we know they despise even if it's good.

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On ‎15‎/‎06‎/‎2017 at 07:28, McSpreader said:

The only way, the quickest way, the safest way  to remove a Tory Gov't is to vote Labour.

 

18 hours ago, McSpreader said:

Actualy no I'm not ......I voted Tory at GE2017 to beat the SNP.....I've always voted Labour.

ac48a694c871d86e5c3a7e7d9107127b.gif.2c42da73d901492af1730f86231f9dd3.gif

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51 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Being radical and being more left wing is not always the same thing.

The SNP could easily be more radical eg replacing Council Tax, Education reform etc without budging an inch left (or right for that matter).

Yep, I'm certainly not looking for a lurch to the left, I'm looking for lurches in different ways in different areas, I'd certainly like to see the SNP coming up with something new,innovative and creative for SME's, I don't care whether it's right,left or centre so long as it's radical and aimed and strengthening SME's and improving the lives of those earning a living out of SME's.

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On 6/15/2017 at 08:20, Loondave1 said:


Equally then Indy is unwinnable as was proven by it being lost.

I can see you're taking this well.

If someone had said the referendum was unwinnable for Yes, it would have been pretty moronic to throw it back in their faces because Yes ended up losing by a smaller margin than it might have looked like at times.

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I can see you're taking this well.
If someone had said the referendum was unwinnable for Yes, it would have been pretty moronic to throw it back in their faces because Yes ended up losing by a smaller margin than it might have looked like at times.

Aye whatever.Your individual trifle has went off now so who cares.
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On 2017-6-16 at 08:21, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

McSpreader emoji28.png

 

FWIW, my take on the result is that the SNP is now threatened in two distinct constituencies - rural affluent no voting areas by the Tories and deprived urban areas by Labour. There's obviously crossover between the two thanks to tactical voting etc but that's a good enough explanation. Unfortunately there is only one of those demographics we've a credible chance at regaining any time soon imo, and so I would say the party needs to go a bit bolder on lefty stuff. The problem with that approach is why vote SNP when you can vote Corbyn and get the 'real deal'. Ultimately the only advantage I can see they have is that they're actually in government so have the ability to do stuff - they need to make some big bold announcements. The SNP has exceeded expectations in a big way in 2 major elections - 2011 and 2015. 2015 was based on an unrepeatable post referendum swing, and 2011 was down to big and bold government since 2007. What we've been doing since then hasn't cut it in the same way. If there is a new Westminster election any time soon we will lose more seats - looking at the individual results suggests there isn't necessarily a floor, too...

I agree entirely with your central point.  

It's not necessarily accurate to characterise the rural areas that have gone Tory as "affluent" though.  It's dispiriting and a bit baffling to note that in some of them, poverty is rife and wages are very low in relative terms.  

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