Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Dons_1988]

I’m not sure any of the reporting of the new variant has been over the top or anyone is trying to overplay it. 

I’m a cynic by nature but don’t see the issue with this one. 

[Michael W]

The Kent variant had been known since since September and was already making up c25% of cases in parts of England long before the government decided in December to tell us how worried about this variant it was. 

I appreciate that it takes time to confirm facts etc, but I would say a new variant comprising 25% of cases might've been a cause for concern long before we were told about it. The government cocked up with the Christmas relaxations given the prevalence of infection in areas of England at the time and the deployment of the announcement looked very much like a get out of jail card being played. 

More than two things can of course be true at once, but the aftertiming looked a bit off to me. The bottom line was that government policy failed and infections increased. 

[madwullie]

10 minutes ago, Michael W said:

The Kent variant had been known since since September and was already making up c25% of cases in parts of England long before the government decided in December to tell us how worried about this variant it was. 

I appreciate that it takes time to confirm facts etc, but I would say a new variant comprising 25% of cases might've been a cause for concern long before we were told about it. The government cocked up with the Christmas relaxations given the prevalence of infection in areas of England at the time and the deployment of the announcement looked very much like a get out of jail card being played. 

More than two things can of course be true at once, but the aftertiming looked a bit off to me. The bottom line was that government policy failed and infections increased. 

Not that it matters because we're really talking hypothetical, so more for interest, but the wiki page for the variant, and a few other places I could be arsed looking for at this time, point out that although the sample was taken in September, it wasn't actually detected in the sample till November. 

Some decent info here, although, Wikipedia obvs

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.1.7

[superbigal]

Are people forgetting Christmas was not fully cancelled.
We had the biggest household meetings in months.
Including millions of the old duffers no doubt pulling crackers with their families.
As it turns out the infection rate peaked for the period of December 28th to January 3rd. Hardly a coincidence.
That one day at the height of the Kent variant possibly cost about 3 weeks at an educated guess.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

Are people forgetting Christmas was not fully cancelled.
We had the biggest household meetings in months.
Including millions of the old duffers no doubt pulling crackers with their families.
As it turns out the infection rate peaked for the period of December 28th to January 3rd. Hardly a coincidence.
That one day at the height of the Kent variant possibly cost about 3 weeks at an educated guess.

The question, for me, is simple:

Was there any valid reason, in terms of controlling infection, to relax restrictions for any period of time at the end of December- especially as it could be foreseen that any concessions would be stretched to, and beyond, breaking point?
If the answer is no, then Johnson has blood on his hands.
There are many points in this pandemic where bad decisions have been taken in what we must presume to be good faith. This was not one of them.

[Dons_1988]

Christmas was possibly the most mental decision making of this entire pandemic. The fact they originally sanctioned FIVE DAYS of household mixing was absolute madness and I suppose we should be grateful they stood down from it. 

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, Michael W said:

...I appreciate that it takes time to confirm facts etc, but I would say a new variant comprising 25% of cases might've been a cause for concern long before we were told about it. The government cocked up with the Christmas relaxations given the prevalence of infection in areas of England at the time and the deployment of the announcement looked very much like a get out of jail card being played...

...that in turn gave Macron an excuse to close down ferry traffic just as brinksmanship over the Brexit deal was at its most critical phase. Spectacular own goal by Boris.

Edited March 1, 2021 by LongTimeLurker

[Paco]

A slight gap opening up between England and the other nations in terms of first vaccine doses administered over the past few days. Hopefully a sign that supply issues are over with, I suspect the doses will land in England and be sent out to local authorities, while there’ll be an extra step to go to NHS Scotland/Wales/NI.

England now has the highest percentage of first doses given out in the UK, but the lowest amount of second doses. Not for me to say whether it’s all a PR exercise, Jeff.

Willie Rennie to be greeting in Parliament again, NAP.

Edited March 1, 2021 by Paco

[Detournement]

52 minutes ago, superbigal said:

Are people forgetting Christmas was not fully cancelled.
We had the biggest household meetings in months.
Including millions of the old duffers no doubt pulling crackers with their families.
As it turns out the infection rate peaked for the period of December 28th to January 3rd. Hardly a coincidence.
That one day at the height of the Kent variant possibly cost about 3 weeks at an educated guess.

That was the peak because the hard lockdown began on the 26th and more people were off work. 

Its very difficult to believe that Christmas Day multiplied R but then it began to drop immediately afterwards. Was there an exponential uptick between the final two periods of rising infections?

Hospitality being open in large parts of England and retail everywhere being mobbed during December would have been far bigger drivers of infection than one day of minimal mixing. Most families aren't the McAllisters from Home Alone, most Christmas home socialising is fairly tight knit.

[LongTimeLurker]

8 hours ago, madwullie said:

...The govts and scientists have warned for months now that the biggest and main danger we face is that of mutations arising which are not bodied so well by our current vaccines...

Meanwhile hospitalisation rates are dropping like a stone in the UK due to vaccination despite having one of these variants being prevalent, and South Africa is easing restrictions after cases dropped rapidly there despite having one of the new variants prevalent and having very little vaccination completed:

Viruses mutate. That's pretty much a given. There is nothing so far that suggests the trajectory we are on will be derailed by that. Bear in mind that the UK, South Africa and Brazil have been used frequently in vaccine trials, so the vaccines currently in use are already known to be effective against these variants where severe symptoms are concerned. The drops in efficacy that have been reported have related primarily to mild or asymptomatic cases.

Edited March 1, 2021 by LongTimeLurker

[ICTChris]

A year ago today the first confirmed case of Covid 19 was diagnosed in Scotland.

[super_carson]

2 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

A year ago today the first confirmed case of Covid 19 was diagnosed in Scotland.

Happy birthday?

[Elixir]

4 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

A year ago today the first confirmed case of Covid 19 was diagnosed in Scotland.

That the public knew about at the time...

[D.A.F.C]

This variant thing will be never ending until they either close borders or have a vaccine that works against all future strains.

Closing borders makes sense but yet again the uk is penny wise pound foolish. 

Personally I think holidays are a no go outside the UK this year unless something changes. Seems like a variant can develop anywhere which could change things at short notice.

A lockdown because someone wants to get pissed in the sun. f**k right off

 

[Marshmallo]

15 minutes ago, Detournement said:

That was the peak because the hard lockdown began on the 26th and more people were off work. 

Its very difficult to believe that Christmas Day multiplied R but then it began to drop immediately afterwards. Was there an exponential uptick between the final two periods of rising infections?

Hospitality being open in large parts of England and retail everywhere being mobbed during December would have been far bigger drivers of infection than one day of minimal mixing. Most families aren't the McAllisters from Home Alone, most Christmas home socialising is fairly tight knit.

You don't have that multiplier effect without the mixing on Christmas Day though.

[Elixir]

8 hours ago, madwullie said:

This isn't going to cause us issues. But even Elixir's scientist of the month understands variants are the issue that could in some way slightly delay the process, at least make the road more rocky and less plain sailing.

What's this nonsense?

[Elixir]

2 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

This variant thing will be never ending until they either close borders or have a vaccine that works against all future strains.

Closing borders makes sense but yet again the uk is penny wise pound foolish. 

Personally I think holidays are a no go outside the UK this year unless something changes. Seems like a variant can develop anywhere which could change things at short notice.

A lockdown because someone wants to get pissed in the sun. f**k right off

Shutting the borders really helped protect against the strain that arose in err... Kent. Maybe it was those pesky people arriving on dinghies who brought it here. We should sink them in the Channel, just to be safe.

[Dons_1988]

5 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

This variant thing will be never ending until they either close borders or have a vaccine that works against all future strains.

Closing borders makes sense but yet again the uk is penny wise pound foolish. 

Personally I think holidays are a no go outside the UK this year unless something changes. Seems like a variant can develop anywhere which could change things at short notice.

A lockdown because someone wants to get pissed in the sun. f**k right off

 

Good luck developing a vaccine guaranteed to work against all future undiscovered strains.

 

[D.A.F.C]

1 minute ago, Elixir said:

Shutting the borders really helped protect against the strain that arose in err... Kent. Maybe it was those pesky people arriving on dinghies who brought it here. We should sink them in the Channel, just to be safe.

They didn't shut the borders though.

That was one variant, yes it can happen but then we had Brazil and South African. Yes let's let everyone in and out until it mutates beyond control of our vaccine meaning that all the hard work is out the window.

As long as I can sink a few pints beside a swimming pool f**k everyone else.

Lalala what do the scientists know

[Michael W]

1 minute ago, Dons_1988 said:

Good luck developing a vaccine guaranteed to work against all future undiscovered strains.

 

Exactly. This is an impossible bar to clear. 

We can take action against new strains where necessary by developing the vaccines we now have with boosters etc. That's as good as we can manage and I'm confident with even what we have at the moment that this is achievable. Might mean focused travel bans etc whilst we work it all out, but no need for blanket bans at that stage. 

In the meantime, the important thing is we keep sequencing. The current vaccines have been shown to reduce infection and so hopefully will also reduce chances of 'mutations of concern' by reducing the overall amount of infections.