Stephen Malkmus Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: You're right. Peaked in December If Leitch was predicting a late Jan/Feb peak I've no idea where he got that from as it goes against the Gov's December modelling. 4 minutes ago, die hard doonhamer said: Of course, that’s got nothing to do with the reporting lag caused by the 4 day weekend beforehand The number is by specimen date, not date reported. Edited January 12, 2022 by Stephen Malkmus 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Stephen Malkmus said: Fair enough, but on December 29th there were 21,420 cases. A tsunami, for almost all generations alive atm evokes one thing only. Death and destruction on a horrific scale. What we got was a few more cases driven by the increased transmissibility of a variant that South Africa were telling everyone who would listen (we wouldn't) was significantly less dangerous and unlikely to cause any problems whatsoever. It was horrendous use of language, and was used in the context of having one eye on Johnson not funding further restrictions, hoping that it would all come back to bite him and she would score some points. The opposite has happened of course. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glennie Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Stephen Malkmus said: If they'd said a tsunami of serious infections, hospitalisations or deaths I'd agree with you. Very rarely does a tsunami cause thousands of deaths. If we refer to other case peaks as "waves", given that this one involved a peak several times higher than previous waves, a "tsunami of cases" seems like an accurate way of describing it. previously known as 'there something going aroond, hen' before covid hysteria Edited January 12, 2022 by Glennie 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Stephen Malkmus said: If Leitch was predicting a late Jan/Feb peak I've no idea where he got that from as it goes against the Gov's December modelling. He is a patsy, happy to talk shite to justify a panicked response. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, Left Back said: They shat the bed and fired in additional restrictions for no justifiable reason. Pretty sure Scotrail had to draft an interim time table, the Police had to use probationers to cover shifts, NHS Grampian publicly said they were struggling. There is more than one reason to attempt to control. -4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stephen Malkmus said: If Leitch was predicting a late Jan/Feb peak I've no idea where he got that from as it goes against the Gov's December modelling. The number is by specimen date, not date reported. Still miles out from the "projections" in the evidence paper restrictions were based on then. You're on a roll here. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 101 said: Pretty sure Scotrail had to draft an interim time table, the Police had to use probationers to cover shifts, NHS Grampian publicly said they were struggling. There is more than one reason to attempt to control. You're not saying these things are a reason why normal society should be able to be ceased at the drop of a hat though surely? 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 101 said: Pretty sure Scotrail had to draft an interim time table, the Police had to use probationers to cover shifts, NHS Grampian publicly said they were struggling. There is more than one reason to attempt to control. These were all real issues, of course, but all were not helped by the government overestimating the severity of infection (despite SA data showing otherwise), and changing the isolation requirements. "Living with Covid" cannot mean imposing mandatory isolation periods for no reason other than testing positive for a single, not very dangerous overall, pathogen 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Bairnardo said: You're not saying these things are a reason why normal society should be able to be ceased at the drop of a hat though surely? No, we need an overhaul of our public services. However should events not be able to be safely carried out they should be cancelled, especially when the terror threat is still in its elevated position. But table service doesn't exactly keep anyone safe and has an additional burden of staff working in venues so should be ditched, imo. -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Malkmus Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Left Back said: Still miles out from the "projections" in the evidence paper restrictions were based on then. You're on a roll here. That's still within the Central projection of the model you quoted earlier. They were out by a few days but the worst case scenario numbers were reached fairly soon afterwards. Edit: actually 8k cases on December 20th is in the lower end of the Worst case prediction in the model Edited January 12, 2022 by Stephen Malkmus 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsedToGoToCentralPark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 That's still within the Central projection of the model you quoted earlier. They were out by a few days but the worst case scenario numbers were reached fairly soon afterwards.You are Jason Leitch AICMFP. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The Tsunami alarm bells were that if cases went up by 500% then you may have 250% rise in ICU numbers allowing for Omicron being half as "serious" as Delta. I surmise we have had a circa 500% rise in cases and feck all change to numbers in ICU. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Malkmus Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, UsedToGoToCentralPark said: 5 minutes ago, Stephen Malkmus said: That's still within the Central projection of the model you quoted earlier. They were out by a few days but the worst case scenario numbers were reached fairly soon afterwards. You are Jason Leitch AICMFP. I'm not even pro-restrictions any more, just correcting some facts on the case modelling -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stephen Malkmus said: That's still within the Central projection of the model you quoted earlier. They were out by a few days but the worst case scenario numbers were reached fairly soon afterwards. You're funny. You should post more on here. Let me explain it simply for you. Worst case scenario (as per the graphic you quoted) was 25000 by December 20th. As per the "model" in the evidence paper it was still rising. Anything remotely like the worst case scenario model would have been orders of magnitude higher than 25000 a few days later with the 2 day doubling nonsense. The weren't out by a few days. They were out by an era. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Stephen Malkmus said: That's still within the Central projection of the model you quoted earlier. They were out by a few days but the worst case scenario numbers were reached fairly soon afterwards. Edit: actually 8k cases on December 20th is in the lower end of the Worst case prediction in the model Again you aren't wrong, but the scope of the worst case scenario was absolutely huge. They modelled up to 50,000 cases per day in between Christmas and New Year, and that obviously didn't happen. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, superbigal said: The Tsunami alarm bells were that if cases went up by 500% then you may have 250% rise in ICU numbers allowing for Omicron being half as "serious" as Delta. I surmise we have had a circa 500% rise in cases and feck all change to numbers in ICU. This was never sensible logic in the first place though. Something being half as serious but infecting twice as many people doesn't mean it will cancel out, just as if Delta had been twice as infectious we wouldn't have had twice as many people in ICU as we did. Most of the "extra" people it infects would have had minor effects anyway, just as most people who have caught covid have. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I seem to remember reporting Scotland showing modelling that was predicting 50-60k daily cases in January/February 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, superbigal said: The Tsunami alarm bells were that if cases went up by 500% then you may have 250% rise in ICU numbers allowing for Omicron being half as "serious" as Delta. I surmise we have had a circa 500% rise in cases and feck all change to numbers in ICU. They estimated it was 50-75% less severe. It is currently estimated to be 90% less so. Rather oddly, they decided a largely unvaccinated population with high levels of HIV had a better level of immune system defence than here. Baffling then, and looks ridiculous now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Dons_1988 said: I seem to remember reporting Scotland showing modelling that was predicting 50-60k daily cases in January/February 60-600 deaths per day as well, remember. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Malkmus Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said: Again you aren't wrong, but the scope of the worst case scenario was absolutely huge. They modelled up to 50,000 cases per day in between Christmas and New Year, and that obviously didn't happen. That would have been a mega-tsunami compared to previous peaks. 2 minutes ago, Left Back said: You're funny. You should post more on here. Let me explain it simply for you. Worst case scenario (as per the graphic you quoted) was 25000 by December 20th. As per the "model" in the evidence paper it was still rising. Anything remotely like the worst case scenario model would have been orders of magnitude higher than 25000 a few days later with the 2 day doubling nonsense. The weren't out by a few days. They were out by an era. The worst case scenario comprised a range, not an absolute number. 25000 by Dec 20th may have been the worst of the worst case numbers but it was never likely. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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