Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[Freedom Farter]

23 minutes ago, Claudia Gentile said:

 

 

I'd expect that to be true. If so, its a step up from blowing millions on shite podcasters.

Regardless, the anti-Pashinyan protests were representative of organic sentiment within a section of the Armenian population. I mentioned them in this thread as they were ongoing simultaneously with the Tbilisi protests. I'm sceptical of both movements' essential character which is hurt national pride over military defeats. The Tbilisi protesters believe the current Georgian government isn't hostile enough to Russia and the Yerevan protesters believe the current Armenian government aren't hostile enough to Azerbaijan. I sympathise with the protesters in both cases. These are folk with difficult lives who have for decades been failed by their state and governments. Their material conditions are far below what they should be. However, their grievances are being captured then driven down blind alleys because only different stripes of the right wing exist in their electoral politics.

[Freedom Farter]

Pashinyan's position is not the just position but its the only practical one.

Consider this today:

The UK foreign secretary calling the ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh an act of Azerbaijani liberation.

There is no moral authority to appeal to any longer. There is the interests of USA and the EU to appeal to or there is nothing. The only possible way to stop yourself being victimised further by Azerbaijan (assisted by Turkey and Israel) is to try and join the club those regimes are part of. Even as a lesser member of the club, you get a seat at the table to at least get your concerns heard.

[welshbairn]

Azerbaijan are naturally delighted.

https://www.azernews.az/nation/231519.html

Here's his blog where it came from.

https://davidlammy.substack.com/p/the-united-kingdom-and-the-united

He's presumably using it as an example of Russian weakness in being unable to fulfill their security guarantees to Armenia, and got carried away with his sweeping vision of how the 21st century Great Game is playing out. But it looks like an almighty gaffe that only the likes of GBN and the Spectator have bothered to pick up on in the MSM.

3 possibilities imo.

1. He's ignorant of the situation and failed to get his FCO staff to give it a once over before publishing it.

2. There is something important the UK want from Azerbaijan and this was the quid pro quo.

3. He got flattered by the attentions of an Azerbaijani over Ferrero Rocher and thinks the rule based order and mechanisms for settling territorial disputes is so last century, maybe after spending too much time cosying up to the Washington Trumpets.

 

Edited Friday at 10:00 by welshbairn

[SandyCromarty]

I visited Azerbaijan in its very early days as it moved from Soviet oil exploration and production to Western Companies, BP was already producing from its Chirag platform.

Baku wasn't exactly a backwater but it had a couple of decent hotels and the London pub which was the ex pat watering hole, the ride out to the heliport was an eye opener with plenty of discarded russian nodding donkeys and pools of what looked like oil, however life on the BP platform was good no different from others I had done projects on, local crew on board was made up of Azeri born russians and local Azeris, it was obvious that the russians were being ignored while it looked the BP attitude was to court the locals, while the russians tended to group together the Azeri crew freely mingled and worked directly with BP personnel and many Azeris were being sent to the UK and other areas on training courses.

Now when I see the Grand Prix in Baku I am amazed of how it looks, and I would imagine that the BP influence has worked well with the locals and government as they have completed the 1000 mile pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkeys mediterranean coast.

Though I wonder how the Azeri born Russian populace have fared as to whether they have benefited or been left out in the cold.

[Freedom Farter]

The Pashinyan government have been trying to convince their opponents that integration into the wider USA/EU sphere offers Armenia the best chance of protection from further Azerbaijani aggression. The UK foreign secretary's words undermine Pashinyan's argument. 

[Freedom Farter]

Incidentally, I agree with this:

Edited Saturday at 00:24 by Freedom Farter

[Freedom Farter]

10 hours ago, SandyCromarty said:

I visited Azerbaijan in its very early days as it moved from Soviet oil exploration and production to Western Companies, BP was already producing from its Chirag platform.

Baku wasn't exactly a backwater but it had a couple of decent hotels and the London pub which was the ex pat watering hole, the ride out to the heliport was an eye opener with plenty of discarded russian nodding donkeys and pools of what looked like oil, however life on the BP platform was good no different from others I had done projects on, local crew on board was made up of Azeri born russians and local Azeris, it was obvious that the russians were being ignored while it looked the BP attitude was to court the locals, while the russians tended to group together the Azeri crew freely mingled and worked directly with BP personnel and many Azeris were being sent to the UK and other areas on training courses.

Now when I see the Grand Prix in Baku I am amazed of how it looks, and I would imagine that the BP influence has worked well with the locals and government as they have completed the 1000 mile pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkeys mediterranean coast.

Though I wonder how the Azeri born Russian populace have fared as to whether they have benefited or been left out in the cold.

BP, you say?

[SandyCromarty]

7 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

BP, you say?

My take is what I saw in those early production days.

That policy has worked for the majors since the beginning of the oil industry, Saudi a prime example and BP on Kharg.

Two recent expansions has been Ghana and Guyana, early drilling in both was by the Irish company Tullow Oil yet now the Majors have moved in.

 

[SandyCromarty]

It is easy to criticise and rationalise what is the base problem with any conflict or otherwise in other states.

We live in what we consider a democratic state, however naive in accepting that we are, fact is that what we find unacceptable politically and policy elsewhere there are many populace which see a strong arm leader/leaders acceptable which provide a type of normality.

Consider how in the UK we have a man who is never elected as Prime Minister by the populace with his finger on the nuclear button.

And then how that appears to foreign entities who we criticise for strong arm tactics.

 

[Freedom Farter]

7 hours ago, SandyCromarty said:

It is easy to criticise and rationalise what is the base problem with any conflict or otherwise in other states.

We live in what we consider a democratic state, however naive in accepting that we are, fact is that what we find unacceptable politically and policy elsewhere there are many populace which see a strong arm leader/leaders acceptable which provide a type of normality.

 

Consider how in the UK we have a man who is never elected as Prime Minister by the populace with his finger on the nuclear button.

 

And then how that appears to foreign entities who we criticise for strong arm tactics.

 

That can be true although maybe not of Azerbaijan.

The huge oil and gas revenues Azerbaijan makes are not distributed much among the population. Quality of life indicators are lower in Azerbaijan than in their resource-poor neighbours Armenia and Georgia. Azerbaijanis also don't enjoy the democratic freedoms of Georgians and Armenians so they're getting a worse deal on both counts. 

The Azerbaijani capitalist class or oligarchy must be kept satisfied by president Aliyev to ensure his continued rule. In that sense, its a similar dynamic to Russia. The only threat to the ruler is not from below - the masses are thoroughly beaten into submission - but from the oligarchy. Thus, expansion is needed to increase the domain over which the oligarchy can extract profit. Nagorno-Karabakh provides mining opportunities similar to how the Donbas does.

 

I waffled on about Venezuela recently in this thread and the problems it has with failing to diversify its economy beyond just oil. Known as Dutch disease, it commonly affects petrostates and Azerbaijan is no different. Embezzlement constantly grows the wealth divide between those with connections to the Aliyev government and those without.

Edited Sunday at 02:07 by Freedom Farter

[SandyCromarty]

7 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

That can be true although maybe not of Azerbaijan.

The huge oil and gas revenues Azerbaijan makes are not distributed much among the population. Quality of life indicators are lower in Azerbaijan than in their resource-poor neighbours Armenia and Georgia. Azerbaijanis also don't enjoy the democratic freedoms of Georgians and Armenians so they're getting a worse deal on both counts. 

The Azerbaijani capitalist class or oligarchy must be kept satisfied by president Aliyev to ensure his continued rule. In that sense, its a similar dynamic to Russia. The only threat to the ruler is not from below - the masses are thoroughly beaten into submission - but from the oligarchy. Thus, expansion is needed to increase the domain over which the oligarchy can extract profit. Nagorno-Karabakh provides mining opportunities similar to how the Donbas does.

 

I waffled on about Venezuela recently in this thread and the problems it has with failing to diversify its economy beyond just oil. Known as Dutch disease, it commonly affects petrostates and Azerbaijan is no different. Embezzlement constantly grows the wealth divide between those with connections to the Aliyev government and those without.

That is true in most countries which have oil and gas reserves, Nigeria is a prime example.

Also the same applies here in the UK where the vast huge Billions of Oil Revenue Pounds over the last 60 years has been wasted by various westminster governments, miners strikes, £20 Billion on a 15 mile railway in London etc etc etc yet look around you here in Scotland and point out projects which have been oil revenue funded.

Embezzlement you describe as being prevalent in the likes of Azerbaijan?????

How about the last tory government with the likes of Michele Mone and various other fat cats who profited from covid.

The labour prime minister Starmer receiving £100,000 of gifts???

Greed and corruption is all around you,look closer to home and less to countries which are more open in robbing the poor,it's a fact of life.

[Freedom Farter]

[Wee-Bey]

Gotta love the Balkans. 

[ClydeTon]

11 hours ago, Wee-Bey said:

Gotta love the Balkans. 

 

[Freedom Farter]