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Geopolitics in the 2020s.


dorlomin

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Fighting has broken out again in Karabakh. Several villages in the Hadrut region that weren’t taken by Azeri forces have been attacked and some overrun. It appears that there were local militias defending the territory. Both sides have claimed that the other has suffered casualties, including fatalities. Russian peacekeepers are now in attendance and are attempting to work out a solution. There are reports from the border between Armenia proper and Azeribijan that there have been clashes and encroachments since the ceasefire. Again, the brunt of the forces on the Armenian side are local defence militias -basically all the men in the village keep an AK47 in their homes and grab it when they are needed. Local mayors have appealed for Army support but none has come. To all intents and purposes the organisation and logistics of large parts of the Armenian and Artakh armed forces seems to have collapsed.

 

Azeribijan held a victory parade in Baku this week where their military marched through the streets, including special forces from Turkey. Erdogan and Aliyev gave speeches, Erdogan praised the officials who are universally recognised as planning and organising the Armenian genocide in the early 20th century and Aliyev repeated claims he has made in the past about the whole of Armenia being Azeri lands. It really is something that huge, rich powerful countries are saying things like this and no-one, essentially, gives a f**k. More and more videos of Azerbaijani troops killing Armenian civilians are emerging as well, with some particularly gruesome ones involving beheading civilians.

 

Perhaps to allay fears of Armenians in Karabakh there are strong rumours that Russia is going to offer them Russian citizenship. This is what the Russians did in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, nominally part of Georgia but have been controlled by separatists since the mid 90s. What this means is that if these citizens were to come under threat then Russia would be able to justify a severe response. It’s not certain it’ll happen but a few journalists with access to the Karabakh Armenian administration have said its happening.

 

 

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It's worth bearing in mind that the people who actually carried out the Armenian genocide are everyone's favourite people without a country, the Kurds.


Armenian-Kurdish relations are quite complicated. As you say, much of the killing of the Armenians was done by the Kurds but there is a sense that the Kurds have come to terms with it and accepted responsibility more than the Turkish state, which will imprison you for saying there was a genocide.

There are numerous examples of Armenians and Kurds co-operating politically and militarily in the late 20th and early 21st century. Legendary Armenian commander Monte Melkonian fought with the Kurds in the Iranian revolution and there is an Armenian battalion of the YPG in Syria. Armenia is also home to a minority of Yazidi Kurds, many of whom have fought in the wars. A photo of an all Yazidi unit in the recent war was used by Turkish state media to claim that the Armenians were flying in PKK fighters.

On the other hand, many of the villages emptied by Armenian forces during the war in the 90s were populated by Kurds.
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2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

It's worth bearing in mind that the people who actually carried out the Armenian genocide are everyone's favourite people without a country, the Kurds.

We should glass the entirety of Kurdistan just to be sure they don't get any ideas 

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There are some strange stories coming out of Armenia at the moment.  Apparently Aliyev offered a deal to the former and current PM of Armenia to buy the seven occupied regions back for $5bn.  The offer was turned down but the previous President offered to buy them from Aliyev for $6bn, in jest one assumes. 

There's also been a story that hundreds of Syrian mercenaries were flown to the conflict zone to fight on the Armenian side by Russia.  A significant number of Syrians and Lebanese of Armenian descent also volunteered to fight and hundreds travelled to the war but the latest report says that fighters from the Syrian army were also sent.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Foreign interventions to make Afghanistan first a Communist utopia and now a Western liberal capitalist democracy continue to fail, some determined people really don't want either. Not so long ago, when it was left alone, it used to be on the Hippy trail, an open and welcoming if impoverished people. The next invader to fail will likely be one that tried before, an extreme form of Islam imported from and funded by Saudi Arabia, and encouraged by Pakistan, but likely to be resisted by competing tribal rivalries. and those who thrive financially from chaos. I can't see a happy ending for generations to come.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/02/world/asia/afghanistan-targeted-killings.html

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Foreign interventions to make Afghanistan first a Communist utopia and now a Western liberal capitalist democracy continue to fail, some determined people really don't want either. Not so long ago, when it was left alone, it used to be on the Hippy trail, an open and welcoming if impoverished people. The next invader to fail will likely be one that tried before, an extreme form of Islam imported from and funded by Saudi Arabia, and encouraged by Pakistan, but likely to be resisted by competing tribal rivalries. and those who thrive financially from chaos. I can't see a happy ending for generations to come.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/02/world/asia/afghanistan-targeted-killings.html

 

 

 

Can you really say there was an intervention to make Afghanistan a communist utopia, when they voted in the communist party, and then began to gain closer ties to Russia.

But I agree that things aren't going to change anytime soon. Just like the big powers in every region. Pakistan and Saudis will keep thinking they have a right to influence.

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20 hours ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

It looks like the Qatar vs Saudi beef might be over thanks to the efforts of Kuwait and renowned peace negotiator, Jared Kushner

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-55538792

I expect Kushner was told to attend or they'd both call in his mortgages. They both know his power base has vanished. Probably teased him mercilessly. 

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6 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

Why are twitter banning Trump but not even censoring Khamenei when he goes on about eliminating the Zionist regime?

They removed a tweet the other day.

Quote

Importing vaccines made in the US or the UK is prohibited. They’re completely untrustworthy. It’s not unlikely they would want to contaminate other nations,. Given our experience with France’s HIV-tainted blood supplies, French vaccines aren’t trustworthy either.

 

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28 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

He's going full on for the Trumpet vote in 2024.

 

I find Pompeo particularly scary. Maybe it's just that he gives this kind of first impression of competence/decency but is in fact batshit insane.

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