Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Karpaty Lviv]

1 hour ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Why are you there?

Visiting friends.

[Sergeant Wilson]

Just now, Karpaty Lviv said:

Visiting friends.

I'm sure they appreciate it, but wouldn't it be safer to bring them here, or meet somewhere. I realise that might be a financial issue though. What was the FCO travel advice to that part?

[ICTChris]

Lots of talk about the Russian withdrawal from Kherson being well underway.

Be interesting to see if Ukraine are able to push the withdrawal and destroy some of the Russian troops and equipment. Depends if Ukraine have the capability at the moment and also whether there are civilians ‘evacuating’ at the same time.

When the Russians withdrew from Kyiv they pulled back in an organised way and preserved most of the men and equipment they still had. The withdrawal from Kharkiv was obviously a rout, with huge amounts of equipment lost. The Russian withdrawal from Lyman saw them lose a lot of men. Seems like this is going to be more like Kyiv than Lyman, although Ukraine are still striking the bridges and pontoons that are being used to withdrawn Russian troops.

[Hillonearth]

10 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Lots of talk about the Russian withdrawal from Kherson being well underway.

Be interesting to see if Ukraine are able to push the withdrawal and destroy some of the Russian troops and equipment. Depends if Ukraine have the capability at the moment and also whether there are civilians ‘evacuating’ at the same time.

When the Russians withdrew from Kyiv they pulled back in an organised way and preserved most of the men and equipment they still had. The withdrawal from Kharkiv was obviously a rout, with huge amounts of equipment lost. The Russian withdrawal from Lyman saw them lose a lot of men. Seems like this is going to be more like Kyiv than Lyman, although Ukraine are still striking the bridges and pontoons that are being used to withdrawn Russian troops.

Seems like the sensible way to do it, especially if as reported the Russians are using the civilian population as a human shield to cover their retreat...let them withdraw their personnel but make it as difficult as possible for them to take much of their materiel with them.

[Karpaty Lviv]

1 hour ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

I'm sure they appreciate it, but wouldn't it be safer to bring them here, or meet somewhere. I realise that might be a financial issue though. What was the FCO travel advice to that part?

Males aged between 18-60 can’t leave the country. 

[Sergeant Wilson]

25 minutes ago, Karpaty Lviv said:

Males aged between 18-60 can’t leave the country. 

Did you need permission to go?

[LongTimeLurker]

3 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Lots of talk about the Russian withdrawal from Kherson being well underway....

Is it a withdrawal though or are they just evacuating all the people that don't need to have around from a military standpoint so there is less strain on their logistics? Reasons for skepticism are that Vlad needs to keep the Ukrainians as far away as possible from the inlet for the water supply canal to Crimea and if they lose this bridgehead over the Dniepr it becomes much more difficult to ever reach Odesa and Transnistria. No idea what the answer to that is but if something seems too good to be true...

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Is it a withdrawal though or are they just evacuating all the people that don't need to have around from a military standpoint so there is less strain on their logistics? Reasons for skepticism are that Vlad needs to keep the Ukrainians as far away as possible from the inlet for the water supply canal to Crimea and if they lose this bridgehead over the Dniepr it becomes much more difficult to ever reach Odesa and Transnistria. No idea what the answer to that is but if something seems too good to be true...

The loss of the Kerch Bridge capacity, and the placement of the direct land connections under artillery threat, has significantly increased the logistical issues for the Russians. If the Ukrainians really pushed it, they could impede the supplies enough to serious hurt the Russian formations in Kherson, so the Russians are acting now to reduce their vulnerability before something happens. By moving to the southern/eastern bank, they secure a better, and shorter, defensive line, a stronger defensive position, and still retain the canal access for Crimean water. The Kerch Bridge/ferries can supply this smaller formation, while the extra troops get deployed East to remain a threat to the Ukrainians pushing toward Kherson, keeping the Ukrainians from duplicating some of their earlier victories because of a need to maintain sufficient forces to handle a possible counterattack.

As for reaching Odessa and Transnistria, that ship has sailed for quite a while.

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

...As for reaching Odessa and Transnistria, that ship has sailed for quite a while.

True, but the question is always whether Vlad sees it that way. This sort of thing has been the missing ingredient on a withdrawal as opposed to an evacuation of all non-essential people so far:

From what I've read in the past Nova Kakhovka can be shelled quite easily from Charivne so that would be highly significant. Guess it's time to check in on yet another Accies defeat.

Edited October 22, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[LongTimeLurker]

 

[LongTimeLurker]

...and now come the freak outs on Russian telegram accounts:

 

[Dev]

 

What to make of this, today?:

The USA Unexpectedly Deploy the 2nd Brigade of the 101st Airborne Division Near Border of Ukraine in Romania | Defense Express (defence-ua.com)

The USA Unexpectedly Deploy the 2nd Brigade of the 101st Airborne Division Near Border of Ukraine in Romania

The 101st Airborne Division is one of the elite units of the US Army, which is designed to deploy in a minimum time. The unit of the Division has been deployed to Europe for the first time in almost 80 years amid soaring tension between Russia and the American-led NATO military alliance

The US Army, without further announcement, transferred and already deployed in Romania the 2nd Brigade of the 101st Airborne Division with a regular number of 4,700 people.

The corresponding plot was filmed by the American CBS News channel, which had an exclusive opportunity to observe the training, which takes place a few kilometers from the border with Ukraine.

It should be noted right away that the 101st Airborne Division is one of the most combat-ready and elite units of the US Army. The light infantry unit, nicknamed the "Screaming Eagles," is trained to deploy on any battlefield in the world within hours, ready to fight.

In the plot, it is directly stated that this redeployment is connected with the threat from the Russian Federation, in particular, the Kremlin's plans of 7 months ago to break through to Odessa and cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea. It is also noted that during the training, situations from the experience of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fighting with the Russian army were recreated, and in addition to "light infantry", "heavy equipment" was also thrown. Along with the American military, the Romanian army is also undergoing similar training.

There is also an interesting passage in the story that the "Screaming Eagles" commanders told CBS News repeatedly that they are always "ready to fight tonight," and while they're there to defend NATO territory, if the fighting escalates or there's any attack on NATO, they're fully prepared to cross the border into Ukraine.

As Defense Express reported, The russians are Completing Preparation of Zyabrovka Airfield 22 km From Border with Ukraine in Belarus to Strike Ukraine.

[Karpaty Lviv]

9 hours ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Did you need permission to go?

Permission from who?

No checks whatsoever, apart from the Polish guard at Przemsyl station and the Ukrainian border guard stamping my passport on the train. My suitcase wasn’t even checked once from Poland into Ukraine.

Neither guard asked me a question. They just looked at me like WTF you doing going there. To be honest, they ain’t wrong. Two air raids today lasting 4.5 hours this morning, and I nearly broke my ankle tonight whilst on a night stroll. And Clyde have lost yet again, it’s all good.

 

Слава ЗСУ!

 

Edited October 22, 2022 by Karpaty Lviv

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, Karpaty Lviv said:

My suitcase wasn’t even checked once from Poland into Ukraine.

Probably hoping you had a Javelin, some drones and some C4 in there!

[dorlomin]

13 hours ago, Dev said:

 

What to make of this, today?:

 

Not much. Its a brigade and its light infantry (about 5000 troops). Everything NATO land forces do is composed by brigades, its sort of the lego blocks of the alliance ground forces. Light infantry has become a catchall to describe everything that is not in IFVs/APCs (tracked armoured carriers of people). But in advanced armies they are usually elite units designed to go in early and prepare the ground. In less developed armies it usually means everyone they cannot afford IFVs for (this is a very simplified explanation).

So its a small formation of relatively lightly armed troops. 

And 101st get deployed to Europe all the time. This brigade was announced deploying to Romania a couple of months ago. 

https://www.army.mil/article/258008/101st_airborne_division_arrives_in_europe_to_support_nato_allies

This deep into a conflict, its time to pay attention when its a couple of armoured divisions being put on boats with all their toys and the airbases are being flooded with fighters and bombers (the later mostly Lakenheath in Suffolk).

 

Edited October 23, 2022 by dorlomin

[Sergeant Wilson]

13 hours ago, Karpaty Lviv said:

Permission from who?

No checks whatsoever, apart from the Polish guard at Przemsyl station and the Ukrainian border guard stamping my passport on the train. My suitcase wasn’t even checked once from Poland into Ukraine.

Neither guard asked me a question. They just looked at me like WTF you doing going there. To be honest, they ain’t wrong. Two air raids today lasting 4.5 hours this morning, and I nearly broke my ankle tonight whilst on a night stroll. And Clyde have lost yet again, it’s all good.

 

Слава ЗСУ!

 

I thought there would've been more to it than that. I haven't checked travel advice, is their advice not to travel at all,cor just avoid the south and east?

I don't doubt your good intentions but I do think it's unwise to take a chance, even if it is pretty minimal in your case.

It might just be my cynical nature, but when a UK national is whining about being in jail in Iran or getting stuck in some other situation of their own making, I always think "why the fuçk were you there in the first place."

[ICTChris]

Some insane footage today from the war. First a Russian pilot ejects after his jet is hit with a surface to air missile.

next, a group of Georgian pro-Ukrainian fighters storm a trench alongside a tank. Putting this one in spoilers as there is some footage of casualties

 

Edited October 23, 2022 by ICTChris

[dorlomin]

18 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Some insane footage today from the war. First a Russian pilot ejects after his jet is hit with a surface to air missile.

next, a group of Georgian pro-Ukrainian fighters storm a trench alongside a tank. Putting this one in spoilers as there is some footage of casualties

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Dashcam of the Su-30 crash earlier today.

2 recent crashes of Russian air over Russia. I suspect they are being pushed into a higher cadence than their maintenance crews can cope with. They had a well known low rate of flight hours so if they are being pushed to train more to support the ground forces, ground crew may be under resourced and unused to the fast turn arounds expected. (Purely my speculation, Justin Bronk is the open source specialist on Russian and Chinese air power he will likely have a comment up soon)

[dorlomin]

 

[jagfox]