Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Sergeant Wilson]

On 02/08/2023 at 06:23, Newbornbairn said:

Belarusian helicopters violated Polish airspace. 

There was two exactly like that above The Clyde, near my work, yesterday. I just assumed a junkie had fell in as usual.

[TxRover]

5 hours ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

There was two exactly like that above The Clyde, near my work, yesterday. I just assumed a junkie had fell in as usual.

Sgt Wilson looking over the Clyde…

[Silvio Tattiescone]

There was a naval drone attack on a Russian port yesterday. The Russians said all drones were destroyed and no damage was caused. 

 

Here's one of their ships getting towed, listing heavily after the attack.

 

 

[ICTChris]

Everything is under control!

[LongTimeLurker]

Old tweet from Peter Zeihan with a map that shows why this is quite the accomplishment geographically for a country with no navy worth mentioning beyond a few glorified speed boats at this point:

He tends to cry wolf a lot to seek attention but the comment he makes in the context of Odesa is also potentially applicable to Novorossiysk given its the main port used for Russian oil and grain exports.

Edited August 4, 2023 by LongTimeLurker

[Silvio Tattiescone]

 

[Sergeant Wilson]

5 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

He tends to cry wolf a lot to seek attention

Does he, really?

[ICTChris]

Kerch bridge under attack from naval and air drones. Reports that an oil tanker was also hit.

[ICTChris]

 

[LongTimeLurker]

If the Ukrainians can do this to the Russians largely on a DIY basis I guess the Taiwanese will now be assembling lots of naval drones as well and this makes a Chinese invasion less likely. 

[ICTChris]

Could just be luck but two of these drones getting through in a couple of days suggests they’ve been improved somehow or Ukraine has updated their targeting.

[LongTimeLurker]

Think the grain deal limited what they could do previously.

[welshbairn]

Messy business blowing holes in oil tankers.

[Carl Cort's Hamstring]

This seemed quite prophetic from 6 months ago.

Similar to the famous Arthur Harris quote:

The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them. At Rotterdam, London, Warsaw, and half a hundred other places, they put their rather naive theory into operation. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind.

[Silvio Tattiescone]

It's been reported Ukraine has trained 10,000 drone operators 

[LongTimeLurker]

This throws that cat amongst the pigeons where Russian grain exports are concerned:

 

[TxRover]

9 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Messy business blowing holes in oil tankers.

Note that, judging by the video, they ran the drone by the vessel first to ID it, and then attacked via striking toward the rear of the vessel, behind the tanks, and instead by the machinery spaces.

[TxRover]

6 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

This throws that cat amongst the pigeons where Russian grain exports are concerned:

 

Note that Putin just had a summit of African nations, where attendance was down 2/3 compared to last year. They aren’t happy about the grain issue. Also, Putin just snubbed an African Peace Delegation that Zelenskyy had met with. Given those are countries that Russia has worked for years to court, pissing away that effort in a couple of days is remarkably short sighted. China must be very happy, as they are the likely winners from Putin’s mistake.

[budmiester1]

56 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Note that, judging by the video, they ran the drone by the vessel first to ID it, and then attacked via striking toward the rear of the vessel, behind the tanks, and instead by the machinery spaces.

If you want to sink a ship you don’t go for the cargo space you go for the engineering space, disable the engines and you lose power, more importantly you lose your emergency pumps to counteract the flooding. Plenty of ships have sunk with relatively minor damage but it was where the damage was. Another reason is that the cargo areas tend to be subdivided whereas engineering spaces by and large are very much more open and more susceptible to “ Free Surface Effect “ which is what sank the Herald of Free Enterprise back in the 80’s.

Edited August 5, 2023 by budmiester1

[TxRover]

9 hours ago, budmiester1 said:

If you want to sink a ship you don’t go for the cargo space you go for the engineering space, disable the engines and you lose power, more importantly you lose your emergency pumps to counteract the flooding. Plenty of ships have sunk with relatively minor damage but it was where the damage was. Another reason is that the cargo areas tend to be subdivided whereas engineering spaces by and large are very much more open and more susceptible to “ Free Surface Effect “ which is what sank the Herald of Free Enterprise back in the 80’s.

I was addressing the comment about risk of pollution, by pointing out they tried to avoid damaging the oil tanks. A sunken oil tanker is still an environmental timebomb, but if the tanks are intact, you can drain them.