Russian invasion of Ukraine

[DeeTillEhDeh]

This assassination (as it looks like) will make any attempt to oust Putin less not more likely.

If Putin goes it will be because he wants to go (with his chosen successor in place) or he's brown bread through natural causes.

[Silvio Tattiescone]

 

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

 

Considerably worse for Russia than it seems from that. The unit is an OTH (over the horizon) radar unit that was being used to track military movements in the southern battle theatre (Kherson) and help defend against the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Very few of the mobile OTH units exist, and now they’ll likely have to try to use an AWACS system to cover the area, but that will risk that aircraft to Ukrainian defenses. It was also being used to monitor for seaborne drones heading east to attack Russian targets.

[ICTChris]

Multiple UAV attacks on airports across Russian regions.  Reports from Pskov, Tula and Bryansk of strikes. Russian media has reported that four Russian military transport planes were destroyed in Pskov.

The videos of the event seem to show propellered drones, looks like the Ukrainians have their own domestically produced version of Shahed drones.

[ICTChris]

Boom

 

 

 

Edited August 30, 2023 by ICTChris
Edited to fix the embed

[LongTimeLurker]

Think this is important because it means they are through the main Russian defence line:

 

[welshbairn]

Long piece on the Ukrainian counteroffensive. 

https://time.com/6300772/ukraine-counteroffensive-can-still-succeed/

[ICTChris]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

Long piece on the Ukrainian counteroffensive. 

https://time.com/6300772/ukraine-counteroffensive-can-still-succeed/

Interesting article - one thing they do get a little wrong through omission is the comparison between the Kherson offensive to the current fighting, in Kherson the river made a hard barrier for Russian resupply.  Once they were reliant on a single bridge for resupply, their positions on the West of the river were untenable.  It took a significantly long, grinding period and the introduction of Surovkin as commander to get the Russians to bow to the inevitable and leave.  Those conditions don't exist in the areas where the Ukrainians are pressing the Russians making it a harder and most likely longer fight.

It does seem like Ukrainian advances in the last few days indicate the fastest advances of the Southern offensive so far.  Could be that they slow again and we go back to the attrition cycle or, perhaps less likely, exploit the breakthrough with significant advances.

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Interesting article - one thing they do get a little wrong through omission is the comparison between the Kherson offensive to the current fighting, in Kherson the river made a hard barrier for Russian resupply.  Once they were reliant on a single bridge for resupply, their positions on the West of the river were untenable.  It took a significantly long, grinding period and the introduction of Surovkin as commander to get the Russians to bow to the inevitable and leave.  Those conditions don't exist in the areas where the Ukrainians are pressing the Russians making it a harder and most likely longer fight.

It does seem like Ukrainian advances in the last few days indicate the fastest advances of the Southern offensive so far.  Could be that they slow again and we go back to the attrition cycle or, perhaps less likely, exploit the breakthrough with significant advances.

Thought it interesting the claim that getting to the sea isn't necessary to wreck the Russian land bridge between Donbass and Crimea, just getting within artillery range of the main Russian rail and road supply routes would be sufficient, especially if they keep battering the Kerch bridge.

[vikingTON]

Quote

 

US 'concerned that arms negotiations between Russia and North Korea are actively advancing', says national security spokesperson

The United States is concerned that arms negotiations between Russia and North Korea are actively advancing, the White House national security spokesperson, John Kirby, told a briefing on Wednesday.

Kirby said the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, had recently travelled to North Korea to try to convince Pyongyang to sell artillery ammunition to Russia, Reuters reports.

 

Here was me thinking that the US supported the right of sovereign states to make their decisions without any external interference in their affairs. Not to mention the unlimited right of third party states to send arms to one participant in an active conflict zone.

 

[Guest]

On 26/08/2023 at 05:54, FreedomFarter said:

It's been discovered the Estonian PM, Kaja Kallas, personally invested in a trucking company that facilitates trade between Russia and Estonia:

https://archive.ph/CSw1x

Given how much she's harnessed anti-Russia sentiment to boost her own political standing, this revelation has been galling for many.

[vikingTON]

A rare, not unhinged analysis:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/30/ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-prigozhin-russia

[beefybake]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

A rare, not unhinged analysis:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/30/ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-prigozhin-russia

To me, it reads more like a statement of of the bleeding obvious.

No country's general populace wants their own country to be defeated in battle.

Edited August 30, 2023 by beefybake

[Guest]

On 28/08/2023 at 07:10, TxRover said:

Very interesting, and fairly well balanced. Takes a reasonable line of not dismissing the possibility of Russian work to plant evidence, but seems to point clearly to Ukraine…at face value. They’re pretty coy.

Didn't see your reply until now. Aye, I especially liked the bit on the intelligence reports. Funny how the Dutch found out about the planned operation and told the Germans but then the Germans didn't take it seriously. Also, just a small detail and nothing to do with the case but the father of the Ukrainian commando Der Spiegel uncovered, Valeri K. Sr., he'd been a people smuggler sending migrants from Turkey across the Mediterranean (presumably to Greece). I'd just imagined people smugglers were always from the nation the smuggling was been done from. Obviously not.

[welshbairn]

3 hours ago, beefybake said:

To me, it reads more like a statement of of the bleeding obvious.

No country's general populace wants their own country to be defeated in battle.

The current Russian elite are making a fortune from the diversion to a wartime economy, no chance their children will be conscripted and sent into the frontlines, not with Moscow home addresses. The general populace is probably still onside but it will be interesting to see how nervous Putin gets with next Spring's election coming up. Mothers of dead soldiers will be more tricky to stamp on than lib teenagers and fascists like Igor Girkin and Prigozhin. The "Special Military Operation" spiel must be wearing thin with all the body bags coming back, and prices going up for what used to be normal staples. Putin's going to have to choose between running for election or declaring full scale conscription and military rule pretty soon.

[vikingTON]

7 hours ago, welshbairn said:

The current elite are making a fortune from the diversion to a wartime economy,

prices going up for what used to be normal staples.

 Minus the body bags and that's western and central Europe too, where there are genuine electoral threats coming down the chute to the dogshit 'Unlimited Support for Ukraine' mantra all the time.

Quote

Putin's going to have to choose between running for election or declaring full scale conscription and military rule pretty soon.

Why would he have to choose? Elections in Russia (and many other countries) are managed beyond any semblance of a contest. The nationalist extreme right have just had their most prominent national figure removed and the liberals were locked up ages ago. There's always a small risk to a regime from any form of formal political process, but this is a country where the governing party recording 99% of the vote at ceremonial elections has been the norm and not the exception.

[ICTChris]

Some updates on the Ukrainian advance.  This is 24 hours old so may have updated since then.

 

 

[Silvio Tattiescone]

Funny how talk of ceasefires only crop up when the Ukrainians are doing well. 

[welshbairn]

Igor Girkin explains from his jail cell why he'd make a better president than Putin. (google translation)

Quote

Strelkov Igor Ivanovich

ABOUT NOMINATION AS A CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT OF THE RF

My advantages in comparison with the current president in the conditions of the Northern Military District:
1. The president refuses to lead military actions, considers himself incompetent in military affairs. I consider myself more competent in military affairs than the current president, and certainly than the current minister of defense, therefore I could fulfill the duties of the supreme commander in chief as required by the Constitution of the Russian Federation.
2. Our president is an extremely gullible person; for 8 years he was led by the nose together and separately by Obama, Trump, Macron, Merkel, Poroshenko and Zelensky. We drove in Minsk and in the Normandy format, in Istanbul and many other places. For my part, I can say: since 2014, I have never called those people who led the incumbent president by the nose as dear and respected partners, on the contrary, I never believed them for a penny.
3. The current president is too kind. When the SVO began a year and a half ago, he was able to quickly make sure that he was being led by the nose not only by respected Western and Kyiv partners, but also by the heads of our law enforcement agencies, intelligence agencies and the military-industrial complex. It turned out that neither the country, nor the army, nor the industry of Russia are ready for war, and the so-called Ukraine is not at all a straw man in military terms. Nevertheless, all the heads of these structures (as well as others, for example, the Central Bank) remained in their places and continue to amaze us with their incompetence.
I’m not at all that kind, which I can prove in practice.
4. Our president has a lot of friends, billionaires and other businessmen, to whom he cannot (due to the above-mentioned kindness and generosity of soul) refuse anything. As a result, the export of capital from the Russian Federation continues, military production is growing much more slowly than the capital of the president’s friends is growing. I don’t have a single friend who is even a millionaire, I have a hard time making friends who are entrepreneurs, in general I have few friends and mostly they are all poor people. Accordingly, I will not have to give in to the wishes of my friends to the detriment of the Russian economy.
5. Vladimir Vladimirovich is a highly moral person, always true to his word and firmly fulfills the promises given to those who brought him to power at the end of the dashing “nineties”. I didn’t promise anything to anyone and therefore I can ignore all the personal guarantees of all the presidents of the Russian Federation from 1991 to the present, if I think that this is useful for the people and the state.
6. I am not as athletic and healthy as Vladimir Vladimirovich was at my age, so I will not be able to bother you, dear voters, for more than 20 years purely physically, even if I suddenly have a desire to mess with you after the military period has been overcome crisis and its most severe consequences.

I.I. Strelkov. 08/30/2023.

 

[TxRover]

Getting close to a purge in Russia. Wagner seemingly “removed” as a unitary threat; Surovikin under house arrest, and the word is out to remove his protégés from their positions in the Army; plus an expansion of conscription that would theoretically place a person like Snowden in the eligible list.

Purges happen under a regime like Putin’s when the leader feels a threat to his position. The problem with a purge is, unless it’s held in classic Russian fashion (see Stalin, Joseph), while “removing threats”, it also identifies those same threats to both each other and to others with similar viewpoints. Also, the elections are coming up, and while they are stage managed to a tee, they also provide useful data to Russian leadership. Turnouts can be assessed to evaluate the sentiment of the population in an area; if you stuff the ballot box, the substituted box can be assessed to determine real vs planted support numbers plus candidates in opposition are useful because you can surveil their rallies/communications/meetings to locate and identify “troublemakers” and supporters.

The dispersal of Wagner personnel, seemingly willy-nilly, could present a future issue. However, it is unlikely to be a present threat to Putin, in a general sense. The removal of a number of upper level military leaders has a bad history for Russia, and seems poorly thought out given the issues in Ukraine at this time. The election, while “controlled”, still poses a number of dangers to Putin, his actions suggest he’s feeling the heat and he is certainly in a weaker position that we’ve seen previously in his reign.

Additionally, it seems likely the Ukrainian success with drone strikes within Russia is influencing Putin’s decision making, and we can expect further clear outs in areas like the PVO (Russian Air Defence Forces), which are already decentralised and thus not well designed to learn from each others experience. If the Ukrainian Army has penetrated the primary defence line in the Kherson area, expect a change of leadership again in the Southern Army Command Group. Historically, such changes tend to be ineffective at best.