Hibernian's Next Permanent Manager

[Dons_1988]

1 hour ago, VincentGuerin said:

If Hibs hire McInnes, we can have the ultimate manager thread fusion while everyone discusses how Hibs should never have punted Jack Ross and Aberdeen should never have punted McInnes.

500 pages.

I propose a separate forum be created for this thread, much like the old firm one. I never ever want to see it. 

[VincentGuerin]

22 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Success for Hibs and Kilmarnock is the same thing. Successive top 6 finishes and maybe a cup.

His wages at Kilmarnock won't be far off what Hibs could offer him, and I'm not convinced the difference in wages for players would be as big as people think either.

I think any "pragmatic" manager will stay away from Hibs too, as you know one poor run has the support on your back.

It's just seems like he'll lose a lot for very little if he moves.

He's not going to win the European Cup at Hibs, but he'll generally be working with a bigger budget, is more likely to be able to sustain a good team long-term, and has generally better prospects. That's not even worth discussing. All things being equal, any player or manager leaves Killie for Hibs given the chance.

The issue is what's going on at Hibs. McInnes (sensibly) walked away from Sunderland when he had the chance to go there, and seemingly Rangers too. So, he seems switched on to warning signs in how a club is structured and is where he thinks he can and can't succeed.

He's pretty much hit his ceiling with Kilmarnock, and the revenue gaps between the city clubs and the others are likely to continue to stretch. If Hibs can offer him what he wants in terms of the structure of the club, I'd be amazed if he stays at Killie. It's a huge if though, as Hibs seem to be a shambles.

Not sure Hibs will even go for him. Depends on the influence of the BKs. They might have someone in mind we've never heard of.

[PauloPerth]

1 hour ago, VincentGuerin said:

He'd get paid more money and have a far better chance at sustained success.

It's an obvious move to take, and if Hibs want him then the only way they won't get him is if McInnes sees that it's a proper shambles behind the scenes. If Hibs ask to speak to him, what McInnes does will be quite instructive.

Ah yes, because the Edinburgh clubs are well known for their periods of sustained success these days.

Its not the 1950’s or 60’s Vincent, the best either will ever do these days is have a few seasons in the top six, a couple of semi finals with potentially a losing final, along with some bottom six mediocrity and the occasional relegation thrown in.

 

He’d probably up his wages quite a bit in fairness, so if that was a motivation for him he might be tempted.

 

[VincentGuerin]

Just now, PauloPerth said:

Ah yes, because the Edinburgh clubs are well known for their periods of sustained success these days.

Its not the 1950’s or 60’s Vincent, the best either will ever do these days is have a few seasons in the top six, a couple of semi finals with potentially a losing final, along with some bottom six mediocrity and the occasional relegation thrown in.

 

He’d probably up his wages quite a bit in fairness, so if that was a motivation for him he might be tempted.

 

I'm not sure why people get their knickers in a twist about this stuff. There's a real defensiveness about it from supporters of some of the clubs outwith the Edinburgh clubs and Aberdeen. It's like willing yourself to be offended.

Nobody is saying you're guaranteed success anywhere. But if you asked any coach if they'd rather get paid more money and have a bigger budget, they'd say yes. It applies all the way up the food chain.

If we assume McInnes is a good manager and has a positive impact on his clubs, then why would he not achieve more at Hibs than Killie over a sustained period of time? He'll have more to work with.

It's really not a complicated thing. The issue, of course, is Hibs and how they are currently run.

[RandomGuy.]

3 minutes ago, VincentGuerin said:

He's not going to win the European Cup at Hibs, but he'll generally be working with a bigger budget, is more likely to be able to sustain a good team long-term, and has generally better prospects.

Based on what, though?

Hibs structure means he won't get as much free reign signings wise as he gets at Kilmarnock, the past decade has them similar accomplishment wise, and wages wise Kilmarnock have increased theirs a lot to support him. Fans seem to love him and will give him time when the next rebuild is needed there too.

The downsides far outweigh the positives for me. The literal only positive is he'll have a slightly larger budget, but again he'll be more restricted in what players he can get due to their structure.

[VincentGuerin]

Just now, RandomGuy. said:

Based on what, though?

Hibs structure means he won't get as much free reign signings wise as he gets at Kilmarnock, the past decade has them similar accomplishment wise, and wages wise Kilmarnock have increased theirs a lot to support him. Fans seem to love him and will give him time when the next rebuild is needed there too.

The downsides far outweigh the positives for me. The literal only positive is he'll have a slightly larger budget, but again he'll be more restricted in what players he can get due to their structure.

I think you just reply without reading sometimes.

I've acknowledged that Hibs' structure may be the issue. That's why I said it'll be quite instructive if Hibs approach him and he knocks them back.

[Les Cabbage]

You’ve got to think this time is going to be different, I don’t mean necessarily successful but definitely different, we have new people running our “football department” and apparently the people who’ve been responsible for hiring these idiots may be on their way out.

I have a feeling the guy appointed won’t be someone we’ve heard of before with a view to them moving to Lorient/Bournemouth which is pretty depressing but tbf if a manager’s successful enough to get moved on then they’re a lot more successful than most managers we’ve had.

Regardless of this my thoughts on the names mentioned.

Alex Neil - my choice, the old saying no one ever got sacked from work for buying software from IBM, success everywhere he’s been except Stoke, decent football, gives him the chance to build his reputation again, a no brainer.

Ronny Deila - Don’t hate it, comes with expectations of good recruitment, decent football and a track record of success.

Rhys McCabe - Not sure, Airdrie play some cracking football but is he too young and could it fall flat on its face? Possibly 

Derek McInnes - I’ve never been keen on this anytime he’s been mentioned, doing a superb job at Killie, granted, but this just reeks of Terry Butcher/Jim Goodwin to me, I don’t think it would work. Not sure he would come either, has previous for rejecting jobs due to badly run clubs, also don’t think he fits the “Black Knight” profile of someone that’ll be able to move on to better things if successful.

Stephen Robinson - See McInnes

Ian Murray - I would love this to work but ultimately I don’t think it would, doing a great job at Raith though.

Voted Yogi though for the lolz

Edited May 14 by Les Cabbage

[gannonball]

11 minutes ago, VincentGuerin said:

 

The issue is what's going on at Hibs. McInnes (sensibly) walked away from Sunderland when he had the chance to go there, and seemingly Rangers too. So, he seems switched on to warning signs in how a club is structured and is where he thinks he can and can't succeed.

 

Yeah a very good point. If he's not one for taking on basket case clubs then he's probably not going to touch Hibs either.

[Dons_1988]

17 minutes ago, VincentGuerin said:

He's not going to win the European Cup at Hibs, but he'll generally be working with a bigger budget, is more likely to be able to sustain a good team long-term, and has generally better prospects. That's not even worth discussing. All things being equal, any player or manager leaves Killie for Hibs given the chance.

The issue is what's going on at Hibs. McInnes (sensibly) walked away from Sunderland when he had the chance to go there, and seemingly Rangers too. So, he seems switched on to warning signs in how a club is structured and is where he thinks he can and can't succeed.

He's pretty much hit his ceiling with Kilmarnock, and the revenue gaps between the city clubs and the others are likely to continue to stretch. If Hibs can offer him what he wants in terms of the structure of the club, I'd be amazed if he stays at Killie. It's a huge if though, as Hibs seem to be a shambles.

Not sure Hibs will even go for him. Depends on the influence of the BKs. They might have someone in mind we've never heard of.

Mcinnes was pretty open in his time with us that he has ambitions to manage Scotland and/or get another crack at England. 

The judgement he needs to make in his head will be

a) what platform is killie giving him to achieve those objectives

b) what interest is there in him now and at what level

c) does the potential at hibs significantly enhance his chances of meeting those ambitions 

d) is the risk vs reward right with hibs structure etc in terms of achieving that potential 

e) At what point does he run the risk of missing his peak stock at killie like he did with Aberdeen (he’s definitely not there yet) and finishing top 6 become something that doesn’t get noticed externally. 

[VincentGuerin]

1 minute ago, Dons_1988 said:

Mcinnes was pretty open in his time with us that he has ambitions to manage Scotland and/or get another crack at England. 

The judgement he needs to make in his head will be

a) what platform is killie giving him to achieve those objectives

b) what interest is there in him now and at what level

c) does the potential at hibs significantly enhance his chances of meeting those ambitions 

d) is the risk vs reward right with hibs structure etc in terms of achieving that potential 

e) At what point does he run the risk of missing his peak stock at killie like he did with Aberdeen (he’s definitely not there yet) and finishing top 6 become something that doesn’t get noticed externally. 

The Killie issue is an interesting one.

His stock at the moment is as high as it's been for years. Every year he's done well and progressed the club. Next season is likely to be the first time that doesn't happen. Finishing 5th would be a good season, but it's not finishing fourth etc.

Killie are unlikely to get through to the group stages in Europe. You can see why with the right offer he'd maybe be open to leaving now, and not miss the peak of his appeal.

But, maybe he just really likes his job. f**k knows.

[Ampersand]

2 minutes ago, Dons_1988 said:

Mcinnes was pretty open in his time with us that he has ambitions to manage Scotland and/or get another crack at England. 

The judgement he needs to make in his head will be

a) what platform is killie giving him to achieve those objectives

b) what interest is there in him now and at what level

c) does the potential at hibs significantly enhance his chances of meeting those ambitions 

d) is the risk vs reward right with hibs structure etc in terms of achieving that potential 

e) At what point does he run the risk of missing his peak stock at killie like he did with Aberdeen (he’s definitely not there yet) and finishing top 6 become something that doesn’t get noticed externally. 

This is absolutely it with McInnes. Spot on. Scotland or down south is where he wants to end up - doing an excellent job at Killie evidently no barrier to the former move, but he'll have to judge whether he thinks it is to the latter, of Hibs ask the question.

Like @Les Cabbage, though, I suspect it'll be someone who would then move 'up' the multi-club structure if they do well.

[C4mmy31]

2 hours ago, Lyle Lanley said:

Hibs are the Scottish version of Sunderland when it comes to managers, we all know what answer he gave them.

He's biding his time for the Scotland job.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

45 minutes ago, Dons_1988 said:

I propose a separate forum be created for this thread, much like the old firm one. I never ever want to see it. 

Hopefully Vincent will be sucked into the AberHibs vortex forever.

[PauloPerth]

7 minutes ago, VincentGuerin said:

I'm not sure why people get their knickers in a twist about this stuff. There's a real defensiveness about it from supporters of some of the clubs outwith the Edinburgh clubs and Aberdeen. It's like willing yourself to be offended.

Nobody is saying you're guaranteed success anywhere. But if you asked any coach if they'd rather get paid more money and have a bigger budget, they'd say yes. It applies all the way up the food chain.

If we assume McInnes is a good manager and has a positive impact on his clubs, then why would he not achieve more at Hibs than Killie over a sustained period of time? He'll have more to work with.

It's really not a complicated thing. The issue, of course, is Hibs and how they are currently run.

You’re living in a fantasy world based on the past.

I’m not defensive nor in the slightest bit bothered. I’m just pointing out the facts to you that, despite bigger fan base and more cash, evidence suggests neither hearts or Hibs have enjoyed sustained success over the past 30-40 years.

Since the mid-1990’s, Motherwell and Kilmarnock have had more seasons in the top flight than both Edinburgh clubs.

In the last 16 years, both Hibs and Kilmarnock have managed one third place in the top league. I didn’t bother going back further.

In the past 40 years, Hibs have won one SC and one LC. Kilmarnock exactly the same.

There is nothing to suggest Hibs will enjoy more sustained success than Kilmarnock given the same manager.

killie are on an upward trajectory, whereas Hibs need a massive rebuild that might take a few years.

[Dons_1988]

Just now, PauloPerth said:

 

Since the mid-1990’s, Motherwell and Kilmarnock have had more seasons in the top flight than both Edinburgh clubs.

 

I’m keeping this, thank you. 

[VincentGuerin]

Just now, PauloPerth said:

You’re living in a fantasy world based on the past.

I’m not defensive nor in the slightest bit bothered. I’m just pointing out the facts to you that, despite bigger fan base and more cash, evidence suggests neither hearts or Hibs have enjoyed sustained success over the past 30-40 years.

Since the mid-1990’s, Motherwell and Kilmarnock have had more seasons in the top flight than both Edinburgh clubs.

In the last 16 years, both Hibs and Kilmarnock have managed one third place in the top league. I didn’t bother going back further.

In the past 40 years, Hibs have won one SC and one LC. Kilmarnock exactly the same.

There is nothing to suggest Hibs will enjoy more sustained success than Kilmarnock given the same manager.

killie are on an upward trajectory, whereas Hibs need a massive rebuild that might take a few years.

People criticise the city clubs for under-achieving and slag them off when the other clubs match or better them. When you point out that someone might want to go there and make a good job of the resources (which a coach will back himself to do), you get but, but, but...

You can't have it both ways.

It's a really simple thing. If you have the option of being at a club with a budget of £50 or a club in the same league with a budget of £100, you'd rather work at the club with £100, all things being equal.

People keep pointing out to me that Hibs are a shambles. I've literally mentioned it in every post. I'd question that Killie are on an upward trajectory too. This may well be the peak. We'll need to wait and see.

[RandomGuy.]

37 minutes ago, VincentGuerin said:

I think you just reply without reading sometimes.

I've acknowledged that Hibs' structure may be the issue. That's why I said it'll be quite instructive if Hibs approach him and he knocks them back.

You've gone from saying he'd walk to the Hibs job because it's so much better, to agreeing he won't take it because Hibs structure would restrict him building a squad, within 2 posts.

I'm sorry I can't predict where you're going next.

Presumably you'll pivot again in a minute.

[Lyle Lanley]

13 minutes ago, C4mmy31 said:

Hibs are the Scottish version of Sunderland when it comes to managers, we all know what answer he gave them.

He's biding his time for the Scotland job.

Most Hibs fans want him but we’ll end up appointing someone with no Scottish experience as usual. We will be back to square one this time next season looking for a new manager. 

[VincentGuerin]

1 minute ago, RandomGuy. said:

You've gone from saying he'd walk to the Hibs job because it's so much better, to agreeing he won't take it because Hibs structure would restrict him building a squad, within 2 posts.

I'm sorry I can't predict where you're going next.

Presumably you'll pivot again in a minute.

Would you like to go back and read my first post on the issue again?

Take your time.

[C4mmy31]

36 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Based on what, though?

Hibs structure means he won't get as much free reign signings wise as he gets at Kilmarnock, the past decade has them similar accomplishment wise, and wages wise Kilmarnock have increased theirs a lot to support him. Fans seem to love him and will give him time when the next rebuild is needed there too.

The downsides far outweigh the positives for me. The literal only positive is he'll have a slightly larger budget, but again he'll be more restricted in what players he can get due to their structure.

It's not just recruitment, he's been afforded the same free reign SC was under Bowie. He's revamped various departments behind the scenes bringing in his own staff along the way.