The Annual Skyline League Cup Group Analysis Thread / Who's Going Through?

[Skyline Drifter]

That time of the year again. There will be more detail on Tuesday night once we've had MD4 of 5 and things are a lot clearer but an initial look after Match Day 3:

Group A
Despite having their problems today, Airdrie matched Aberdeen's feat of two wins from two eventually and those two are favourites. Queen of the South still in the mix. East Kilbride (max poss 5 points) and Dumbarton (4) are already out.

Ultimately whoever wins Aberdeen v Airdrie on Tuesday will almost certainly win the group. If Aberdeen win outright, with a home game v Dumbarton to come then a full house of 12 seems likely. An outright Airdrie win probably still wins the group even if they lose to QoS next Saturday given their GD, although Aberdeen could of course address that by running up goals v Dumbarton.

Queen of the South can still go through but need to beat both EK and Airdrie and probably hope Airdrie don't win at Aberdeen as they'll likely have the worst GD if all three teams finished on 9.

Group B
The 'Champions' League and definitely the tightest group. Following today's results fair chance the top three will all finish on 9 points and placings come down to GD.  Seems highly likely that one of the best runners up will come from this group with at least two of the top three surely getting 9 points and probably a decent GD. There is a very unlikely possibility that all five sides finish on 6 points but in reality I think we can safely assume Buckie are out and Stenhousemuir will need to win both their games v Ayr & Falkirk to have any chance.

Group C
Kelty threw a spanner in the works today but Hibs are still likely to win the group and go through on 9 points. They already have an outstanding GD and have Peterhead at home to play. Kelty could conceivably beat Queen's Park and Peterhead to win the group. It's not that long a shot. They'll need at least 5 points to have any chance of going through. Queen's Park and Peterhead both need to win both their games to have any chance. As that includes away to Hibs in Peterhead's case that's probably a forlorn hope. Elgin are out.

Group D
Annan have thrown a spanner in works here with two unexpected wins but losing the one they should have won! They sit top at the moment but unless they are going to win away to Dundee they probably won't go through. Dundee look likely to win the group if they can beat Annan and ICT at their borrowed home pitch. ICT could in theory still go through but they'll need a maximum 6 from a home game v Arbroath and a trip to Dundee. Bonnyrigg and Arbroath are already out.

Group E
This one's all over the place too but Livingston are quietly sailing through as group winners. Maximum 6 points already Away to a struggling Cove and home to Spartans to come. Forfar have had two great wins but have a maximum of 8 points even if they beat Spartans. It would get them 2nd but it almost certainly won't get them through. Spartans can get 9 points but they'd have to win at Livi as well as beating Forfar to do it. That's a reach. Dunfermline and Cove are already out.

Group F
Another group where the 2nd seeds have been horrible and the top seeds are quietly sailing through without impressing anyone. St Johnstone are probably going to win it. Maximum 6 points so far. Away to Alloa and home to East Fife to come. A win and a draw will do them. One win will probably be enough. Alloa and East Fife remain in the hunt however. Alloa will need to beat St Johnstone at home and then get something at Greenock but it's achievable. East Fife would need to win at St Johnstone as well as beat Brechin at home but they are in the conversation still. Morton and Brechin are already out.

Group G
One of the most interesting and likely to come down to the live Sunday Motherwell v Partick match to decide the winners (unless Partick lose to Clyde at home before then). Edinburgh City are out and Montrose effectively so. Clyde could conceivably get 9 points but they'd need to beat Montrose and Partick to do so and even then it probably only gets them 2nd but they'd have a good GD.

Group H
Ross County look likely group winner having beaten Raith today. 4 points from two games Hamilton (A) and Stirling (H) would do them. Raith can clinch 2nd with a win over Hamilton and a GD of at least +4. Accies aren't out but their penalties loss to Stirling makes it a long shot. They'll have to beat both County (H) and Raith (A) to have a shot (might get away with winning one of them on penalties potentially). Stranraer are out and Stirling effectively so as even if they could get runner up with 8 (unlikely) they probably still don't go through.

 

Three Best 3rd Place Teams
There are ALWAYS unexpected results on each matchday but at this point it does seem likely at least three teams will get a runner up spot with 9 points and a decent GD whilst a 10 pt runner up is unlikely. Motherwell / Partick group is the only one with any serious possibility of a 10 point runner up I suspect. (Partick beat Clyde but Motherwell beat them on pens, both finish on 10). I suppose Airdrie hold on for pens at Pittodrie and then beat QoS would give another.

Fair chance groups A, B, C, G & H all have a runner up with at least 9 points. Groups D, E & F already look long shots for runners up to get through. But stranger things have happened.

 

Will update Tuesday night...................

Edited July 20 by Skyline Drifter

[LoonsYouthTeam]

I doubt we'll beat Spartans, but if we do  and somehow qualify, I'd appreciate the irony of doing so after missing out last year despite having 9 points. Think we finished 5th or 6th best runner up last year.

Been some funny results, sure there'll be some twists this week 

[The Master]

3 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Three Best 3rd Place Teams

What kind of tin-pot competition do you think this is? The Euros or something? 

[DiegoDiego]

12 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Group G
One of the most interesting and likely to come down to the live Sunday Motherwell v Partick match to decide the winners (unless Partick lose to Clyde at home before then).

Clyde would need to win on Tuesday and Saturday to stop the final game being the decider, no? Even if we lose to Clyde we could still top the group by beating 'Well.

[Skyline Drifter]

8 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

Clyde would need to win on Tuesday and Saturday to stop the final game being the decider, no? Even if we lose to Clyde we could still top the group by beating 'Well.

Yes Clyde would need to win both. When I said they'd need to win Tuesday to stop it being a decider I forgot the final games werent being played at the same time.

If Clyde do win both though and you beat Well it'll come down to GD. So could potentially be a case of you needing to win by a margin, though given your GD probably any win will do.

[LeodhasXD]

18 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Group F
Alloa will need to beat St Johnstone at home and then get something at Greenock but it's achievable. East Fife would need to win at St Johnstone as well as beat Brechin at home but they are in the conversation still. Morton and Brechin are already out.

Or you know get a draw against St Johnstone and beat Morton to win the group which is the less unhinged sequence.

[Jamie_B]

4 minutes ago, LeodhasXD said:

Or you know get a draw against St Johnstone and beat Morton to win the group which is the less unhinged sequence.

That would require us to lose or draw at home to East Fife though.

Edited July 21 by Jamie_B

[LeodhasXD]

1 minute ago, Jamie_B said:

That would require us to lose or draw at home to East Fife though.

Dick Campbell told me he wants your scalp. Was also thinking about both teams ending on 10 points.

[Skyline Drifter]

53 minutes ago, LeodhasXD said:

Or you know get a draw against St Johnstone and beat Morton to win the group which is the less unhinged sequence.

"less unhinged"? Really? When I said "beat" I was including a win for you on penalties. Did you forget St Johnstone have another game (at home to the 4th seed)?

You lose on penalties to St Johnstone you'll go into Morton two points and two goals behind them. To get through you'd need to win outright at Morton whilst St Johnstone lose outright to East Fife at home or lose on penalties and you win by two clear goals, or one clear goal having scored the more away goals. Or win on penalties at Morton and St Johnstone lose outright by a couple of goals to East Fife.

I stand by your best chance of progress being to actually beat St Johnstone yourself on Tuesday, whether on penalties or outright, though outright is obviously better for you. If you beat them on penalties, you'll go into the final game on the same points but with them having a one goal difference advantage. They'd still be favourites in that scenario but it keeps you alive. Beat St Johnstone over 90 minutes and you may only need a point against Morton, though you'll probably need a penalty win or better if they can get a win by a couple of goals v East Fife.

[LeodhasXD]

24 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

"less unhinged"? Really? When I said "beat" I was including a win for you on penalties. Did you forget St Johnstone have another game (at home to the 4th seed)?

You lose on penalties to St Johnstone you'll go into Morton two points and two goals behind them. To get through you'd need to win outright at Morton whilst St Johnstone lose outright to East Fife at home or lose on penalties and you win by two clear goals, or one clear goal having scored the more away goals. Or win on penalties at Morton and St Johnstone lose outright by a couple of goals to East Fife.

I stand by your best chance of progress being to actually beat St Johnstone yourself on Tuesday, whether on penalties or outright, though outright is obviously better for you. If you beat them on penalties, you'll go into the final game on the same points but with them having a one goal difference advantage. They'd still be favourites in that scenario but it keeps you alive. Beat St Johnstone over 90 minutes and you may only need a point against Morton, though you'll probably need a penalty win or better if they can get a win by a couple of goals v East Fife.

Agreed 9 points will likely not be enough with the cricket scores in other groups or an egregious St Johnstone blunder but still see the most likely qualifying scenario as a St Johnstone draw - bonus penalty shootout point (which is definitely not a win) and a half arsed Morton lose as they whimper towards the league season starting the week after.

edit to say absolutely nothing between the 3rd and 4th seeds the other day and I wouldn't expect St Johnstone to notice a massive level difference between Tuesday and Saturday - East Fife are just as likely to get a result as we are and that's unlikely!

Edited July 21 by LeodhasXD

[Skyline Drifter]

On 21/07/2024 at 01:00, LoonsYouthTeam said:

I doubt we'll beat Spartans, but if we do  and somehow qualify, I'd appreciate the irony of doing so after missing out last year despite having 9 points. Think we finished 5th or 6th best runner up last year.

Been some funny results, sure there'll be some twists this week 

You were 6th ranked runner up last season. 9 points and a level GD. Hamilton and Dundee both got 9 points and a +3 GD and didn't get through either. Raith DID get through with 9 points and +3 but had scored a goal more than Accies (and 3 more than Dundee).

15 hours ago, LeodhasXD said:

Agreed 9 points will likely not be enough with the cricket scores in other groups or an egregious St Johnstone blunder but still see the most likely qualifying scenario as a St Johnstone draw - bonus penalty shootout point (which is definitely not a win) and a half arsed Morton lose as they whimper towards the league season starting the week after.

edit to say absolutely nothing between the 3rd and 4th seeds the other day and I wouldn't expect St Johnstone to notice a massive level difference between Tuesday and Saturday - East Fife are just as likely to get a result as we are and that's unlikely!

It does already look like the maximum number of groups with a 9 point runner up is probably 5 when there were 6 last year, but there's also been some cricket scores as you say so barring a couple of upset lower division wins in the last two match days, it's still likely 9 points and a big GD of 4 or more will be needed at this point to be a best runner up.

I think you'll need to 'beat' St Johnstone to go through, potentially only on penalties but still beat them. Throughout the initial post if I've used the word "beat" I meant covering both bases. If I meant "win outright" in 90 minutes I said so specifically.

[Iain]

Can three teams go through from Group B or does finishing third automatically eliminate a team even if their record is better than all the other runners up?

[Skyline Drifter]

16 minutes ago, Iain said:

Can three teams go through from Group B or does finishing third automatically eliminate a team even if their record is better than all the other runners up?

No. The 3rd team is, by definition, not a runner up. For avoidance of doubt it's the 3 best records amongst 2nd place teams.

[PSJ.84]

Gary Lineker would be outraged. 

[Doolan9]

Would I be fair in saying if the jags beat Clyde by any margin we would look quite secure to go through as a runner up at worst ? Our goal difference is +7 just now with 10 goals scored. Any win against Clyde even if that was say 1-0 worst case (if we win) we would be sat on +8 with 10 scored. So unless well absolutely pumped us I think we’d have to make a right arse of it not to at least go through as one of the best runners up. Although it is thistle so if anyone could manage it would be us. I would be very pleased if we could go out and put a good 2/3 past Clyde so so even if well did pump us it would have to be something ridiculous like 6/7-0. 

Edited July 22 by Doolan9

[Skyline Drifter]

13 minutes ago, Doolan9 said:

Would I be fair in saying if the jags beat Clyde by any margin we would look quite secure to go through as a runner up at worst ? Our goal difference is +7 just now with 10 goals scored. Any win against Clyde even if that was say 1-0 worst case (if we win) we would be sat on +8 with 10 scored. So unless well absolutely pumped us I think we’d have to make a right arse of it not to at least go through as one of the best runners up. Although it is thistle so if anyone could manage it would be us. I would be very pleased if we could go out and put a good 2/3 past Clyde so so even if well did pump us it would have to be something ridiculous like 6/7-0. 

I imagine unless you beat Clyde narrowly and lose to Motherwell heavily you'll be one of the best 2nd place sides but it could conceivably take a big GD to get through this year. For instance:

Group A - Aberdeen beat Airdrie 1-0, beat Dumbarton and Airdrie beat QoS by say 2-0. You'd have Airdrie 2nd on 9 points and a +10 GD

Group B - If Ayr, Falkirk and Dundee United win out then all three will get 9 points. Falkirk ar already +5 with Stenhousemuir to come. United are only +2 but have a game against Buckie to come. Ayr are GD zero but have both those to come. Not a massive reach for the runner up in that group to end up with a 9 pts and +5 GD although it would need United to absolutely batter Buckie or Ayr to get a pile of goals across their two games.

Group C - Queen's Park could beat Kelty and Elgin to get 2nd on 9 pts. Their GD is already +1 before they play those two. If Kelty were to beat Queens Park they could conceivably win the group and leave Hibs 2nd on 9 points. They're already +8 with a home game v Peterhead to come.

Group H - If Raith beat Accies they'll get 9 points and a GD of at least +5. County probably win the group.

 

To be honest at this point I'd expect Airdrie, Partick and one of Raith or Dundee United or Ayr to be the three best runners up but it doesn't take an awful lot to upset that. Obviously I'm hoping we can win at Airdrie which would knock them out of it and throw ourselves in the mix but we'd need some help. Even if we get 9 points it's likely we're not going to total up a particularly big GD. We're -1 now with EK and Airdrie away to come. We'd also be helped if Thistle drop anything to Clyde (or if they beat Clyde and then beat Motherwell) or if Stenny could upset Falkirk and Ayr, etc......

[Doolan9]

8 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

I imagine unless you beat Clyde narrowly and lose to Motherwell heavily you'll be one of the best 2nd place sides but it could conceivably take a big GD to get through this year. For instance:

Group A - Aberdeen beat Airdrie 1-0, beat Dumbarton and Airdrie beat QoS by say 2-0. You'd have Airdrie 2nd on 9 points and a +10 GD

Group B - If Ayr, Falkirk and Dundee United win out then all three will get 9 points. Falkirk ar already +5 with Stenhousemuir to come. United are only +2 but have a game against Buckie to come. Ayr are GD zero but have both those to come. Not a massive reach for the runner up in that group to end up with a 9 pts and +5 GD although it would need United to absolutely batter Buckie or Ayr to get a pile of goals across their two games.

Group C - Queen's Park could beat Kelty and Elgin to get 2nd on 9 pts. Their GD is already +1 before they play those two. If Kelty were to beat Queens Park they could conceivably win the group and leave Hibs 2nd on 9 points. They're already +8 with a home game v Peterhead to come.

 

Group H - If Raith beat Accies they'll get 9 points and a GD of at least +5. County probably win the group.

 

To be honest at this point I'd expect Airdrie, Partick and one of Raith or Dundee United or Ayr to be the three best runners up but it doesn't take an awful lot to upset that. Obviously I'm hoping we can win at Airdrie which would knock them out of it and throw ourselves in the mix but we'd need some help. Even if we get 9 points it's likely we're not going to total up a particularly big GD. We're -1 now with EK and Airdrie away to come. We'd also be helped if Thistle drop anything to Clyde (or if they beat Clyde and then beat Motherwell) or if Stenny could upset Falkirk and Ayr, etc......

I see, great work. I always appreciate someone capable of making these threads cos it’s something my brain would never be able to put together. Guess we’ll just have to pump little Clyde and shit house a bore fest against the well to be sure! 

[moses1924]

Great work as always @Skyline Drifter

[Lyle Lanley]

Our defeat to Kelty on Saturday has cost us being seeded. 

[Skyline Drifter]

Right folks, sorry, not long back from East Kilbride. Update coming right up...............