P&b Gambling University

[djn]

Bit late to this thread, but found it a very interesting/ sobering/ insightful set of posts, wish there were more threads on P&B with this level of serious points, rather than descending into the "you're teh gay!!!11!!! lolz" types

Anyhow, I don't bet often, and when I do it's on the football at the bookies. I don't have the restraint to open an account with an online bookies, and I gave up fruit machines years ago.

Used to stick a quid on a ridiculous accumulator (that never came up) each week, on the theory that it was the same as a lottery ticket, and that I had more insight into football results than random balls being drawn.

Am tempted to get involved in "bigger" bets now, but only having read up a bit more. As has been said by others, I'm a bit "old school" (putting on 3 or 5 fold bets, because they were the rules back in the day).

Couple of questions for the "experts" on this thread:

Do you bet on lower league Scottish football? (Some days I convince myself that the Bookies don't pay it much attention, so the odds can be better, but others I reckon it's far too random to consider)

Are draws ever a good idea? (I had a spell of putting on four draws for around 80/1, because it suggested it at the top of the coupon, and I am a sheep)

Thanks in advance...

[Latino Lover]

Couple of questions for the "experts" on this thread:

Do you bet on lower league Scottish football? (Some days I convince myself that the Bookies don't pay it much attention, so the odds can be better, but others I reckon it's far too random to consider)

Are draws ever a good idea? (I had a spell of putting on four draws for around 80/1, because it suggested it at the top of the coupon, and I am a sheep)

Thanks in advance...

I'm by no means an expert but apart from two black weekends I've done quite well for the past few months so I'l give you my response.

Yes the Scottish lower leagues is where I probably have most sucess, if you look at East Fife compared to say Man United you will get much better odds on the Fifers winning away to a struggling team, granted there is the theory that anyone can beat anyone down the leagues but I believe there is much more value down there due to a lack of knowledge in comparison to English football etc. This site has been very usefull for team news etc and certain posters who do not post all the time, like the Mel Hutchwright's of the world generally give an honest assesment of their teams performances and chaces in the next game.

Don't touch the draws so much myself but there was one poster on here a few months ago who would choose 5 games and perm in 10 doubles, that looked a decent tactic particularly in lower scoring leagueslike France and Italy.

A new lesson for Bet365 customers which I have leart the hard way:

When putting a big single on have a look at the prices on HT/FT and consider covering these options for your team to win instead, you may get slightly worse odds but if it finishes 0-0 you will get your cash back.

[mid-table]

Do you bet on lower league Scottish football? (Some days I convince myself that the Bookies don't pay it much attention, so the odds can be better, but others I reckon it's far too random to consider)

Are draws ever a good idea? (I had a spell of putting on four draws for around 80/1, because it suggested it at the top of the coupon, and I am a sheep)

Thanks in advance...

I do bet on the SFL occasionally, but the lack of knowledge of the bookmakers is offset by the fact that the outcomes are more random. Smaller leagues generally mean that the teams are more closely matched, there are exceptions (e.g. Berwick, East Fife, Gretna from previous seasons), but it would have to be a well researched bet before I would place it.

The only time I would bet on a draw would be on a tight game, and if I was planning on laying it off during the event. I can't say I would ever put draws on a bet if I wasn't planning on managing it in-running.

[Swampy]

I have money management and buy/sell staking policies in operation that would be equally at home on the trading floor of any global stock exchange. I put incredible amounts of effort into what I do and I seriously get annoyed when I see other people dismissing my profession whilst spreading dangerous misinformation based on a lack of knowledge and understanding.

Surely having people think that punters are all mugs and bookies are invincible is good for you because it means fewer will be trying to emulate you?

[djn]

I believe there is much more value down there due to a lack of knowledge in comparison to English football etc

Yeah, I'm just guessing, but I'd imagine that they do a lot more research for "big" teams, and any changes (players injured, new signings etc) are better known at a higher level, so something at our level (knowing a keeper has taken a knock, say) could pay off.

Don't touch the draws so much myself but there was one poster on here a few months ago who would choose 5 games and perm in 10 doubles, that looked a decent tactic particularly in lower scoring leagueslike France and Italy.

That's something else I'm interested, what combinations to go for. I had a very brief time of putting together four/five folds from nine matches (all draws), but that was more trail and error to see what gave a decent chance of winning without needing to make hundereds of bets.

If I was going for a combination of bets over a few games, what's the best kind of thing to go for? Obviously one single accumulator is pretty risky, whilst covering every single/ double/ treble etc means a lot of bets...

[djn]

I do bet on the SFL occasionally, but the lack of knowledge of the bookmakers is offset by the fact that the outcomes are more random. Smaller leagues generally mean that the teams are more closely matched, there are exceptions (e.g. Berwick, East Fife, Gretna from previous seasons), but it would have to be a well researched bet before I would place it

I know a lot more about this level of football (admittedly not much!) than I do about foreign leagues etc. Whilst some of the posts on this thread have made sense (which foreign teams/ leagues/ referees have certain charecteristics), I know nowt about them.

Backing Berwick to lose every week looks the way to make money

[mid-table]

The problem these days is that everyone has access to the internet, an odds compiler can glean as much information about a team as someone that goes to every game. And one last minute injury (except to a goalkeeper) actually doesn't make that much difference to the outcome of the game.

[blue4578]

There is an argument which says that team news makes no difference to the performance of a particular team. Some people argue that a team will always perform to the same level regardless of which of its players might be absent. While I don't agree with this, people can over-react to a certain player not playing or a team making a few changes. For example today with Sheffield United v Manchester City, Sheffield United made 6 changes I think it was, but from what I could see the players coming in were quite good players anyway and their team wasn't particularly weakened. Manchester City's odds went from 2.24 to 2.06 very quickly based on this, which seemed like an over-reaction.

To answer the questions above, I do bet every week on Scottish lower league football (I'm not Scottish and don't live in Scotland by the way). If you can get the information on the teams, you can bet successfully on the league. I do attend a few games when I can and find this very useful. Most midweeks I am at a lower league game in England or Scotland.

The draw forms a large part of my betting. It is the one outcome that bookmakers pay very little attention to, especially in the lower leagues. The odds seem to be the same across the board regardless of the teams involved. Take the Scottish First Division for example. You can usually get 13/5 (3.6) or bigger on the draw in all of the games from some bookmaker or other. If you take a look how often teams like St Johnstone, Stirling Albion and Partick (at home) draw, you can find some good bets. On Betfair I'll usually stick up some speculative bets trying to back the draw. Most don't get matched but when they do the odds are good.

I also wouldn't go looking for ways to combine bets in multiples. If you can successfully pick a draw at odds of 9/4 and above usually, do you really need to be putting that in an accumulator? I used to be more old school and bet doubles and trebles because of the way the rules used to be. I never set foot in a betting shop these days, but I know bookmakers' coupons used to entice you in with things like minimum 100/1 odds for 4 draws written at the top. This isn't because they want you to win more, it's because they know that if you're trying to pick 4 draws, you've got virtually no chance. I bet singles on everything now and this is the best way to go. I suppose if you think several selections are over-priced and the same bookmaker has the best odds on all of them, you might want to consider taking an accumulator but this won't often happen. Even so, you'd probably want to put small stakes on the accumulator and take all the selections as singles for more serious stakes. Successful gambling isn't about get rich quick, but if you know what you're doing you can win money steadily.

[djn]

Successful gambling isn't about get rich quick, but if you know what you're doing you can win money steadily.

Thanks for taking the time to write your long reply (I've only quoted the last line for reasons of space), it makes a lot of sense to a novice like me

Sadly, I've been taken in by the "four draws for 100/1" note at the top of the Hills sheet too many times

[Raving On]

I'd say most of the money I make gambling is largely because of my knowledge of Scottish lower league football. Although team news is not the be all and end all of successfully picking a side, if you know exactly whose going out and whose coming in I reckon it does make a difference - particularly since the bookies and most punters won't have a clue if these guys are any good or not. I also tend to closely follow how teams are playing from week-to-week (far more important than form written in the form WWlLx). It might not be a big edge, but its a edge.

[BTID]

Bit late to this thread, but found it a very interesting/ sobering/ insightful set of posts, wish there were more threads on P&B with this level of serious points, rather than descending into the "you're teh gay!!!11!!! lolz" types

Anyhow, I don't bet often, and when I do it's on the football at the bookies. I don't have the restraint to open an account with an online bookies, and I gave up fruit machines years ago.

Used to stick a quid on a ridiculous accumulator (that never came up) each week, on the theory that it was the same as a lottery ticket, and that I had more insight into football results than random balls being drawn.

Am tempted to get involved in "bigger" bets now, but only having read up a bit more. As has been said by others, I'm a bit "old school" (putting on 3 or 5 fold bets, because they were the rules back in the day).

Pretty much the same situation, used to bet a lot more on fruit machines/roulette etc but realised a lot of the time it was just being wasted and was only really playing for the sake of playing. Like the casino its really easy to get caught up and make silly decisions when you are down. Still visit the casino now and then but no where near as much as I used to.

Today I bet on the football mostly spl/sfl and juniors. Don't stick on money if there's nothing that sticks out. Also tend to miss out cup weekends and internationals. Just put on a fiver, usually a 2-5 team accumulator. Always a fiver! That way you ain't tempted to put on silly money, but still have a wee shout of making a bit of cash and adds a bit of excitment to the Saturday fixtures. So far despite only taking part in 11 weeks of the season, I'm £215 profit. No big wagers, no big wins, nothing serious. Just have a good look at the weekend odds and pick a few. Although I've had a number of weeks were I was going to put one on and never did, I've been fortunate that no winners came up. I'd guess for around 5 weeks this has happened. Nothing is ever a guarentee but I would say:

Its not all luck, use your knowledge of the game.

Don't be greedy, be content with what you win.

Everyone will be different of course!

Just to add, of the 11 weeks betting its been a win count of 7:4. I'd reckon that even if you lost more weeks than you won you could still make a tidy sum - if playing for roughly a fiver.

Eg: 4 weeks £20

Even one win in that month on a 3 team accum at what 7/1 would bring back £35. You need a bit of luck for sure but it is a pretty 'safe' way to gamble.

Edited January 29, 2008 by BTID

[Loki]

I used to make a steady part time income from playing online poker. I used to make on average £300 a month from about ten - fifteen hours. Then I had my swing of being outdrawn constantly, and I lost my bank roll ($1000 - ten buy ins). Which I lost $400 of hitting top trips on the flop (KK), the other person has pocket queens, and got turn and river Queen. I retired there and then from Poker. He bet on the flop, he raised me, I re rasied him and he went all in.

Alot of people make steady incomes from gambling, I know at least ten people that make hundreds a month playing good solid poker. I know two people that despite having degrees they choose to make a living from Poker. It can be done.

When I am putting a coupon on, I study home form, away form and head to head records of the teams I am planning a punt on. If I had serious money this year I could have made alot of money on betting Ross County to win their games this season. Their odds have been generous and in my opinion over priced alot of the time. Earlier on in the season County were 5/2 to win at Raith despite winning their last seven games there. Plus at that time Raith hadn't beaten County in 15 matches.

My advice for betting on football is: Beware of the Bogey Teams

[H Wragg]

If I had serious money this year I could have made alot of money on betting Ross County to win their games this season. Their odds have been generous and in my opinion over priced alot of the time. Earlier on in the season County were 5/2 to win at Raith despite winning their last seven games there. Plus at that time Raith hadn't beaten County in 15 matches.

Similarly, I'm pretty good at predicting games that Thistle will lose.

Unfortunately principle prevents me from profiting from such a skill.

[GavMan_AUFC_1910]

Similarly, I'm pretty good at predicting games that Thistle will lose.

Unfortunately principle prevents me from profiting from such a skill.

In Ayr's last 10 matches I have betting on one outcome for each of the 10 games. 8 times out of the ten I have been correct so made some good profit from this.

[Lordofthewing]

One (probably quite obvious) thing I've noticed with my own betting is that it's easier to put all your bets on for the one day, as any of my bets with a few Sunday games thrown in tended to go tits up, whereas in recent weeks I've only been betting on matches on a Saturday (with the exception of that Swansea match against Doncaster a few weeks ago), and have had a small profit each week.

[choirbairn]

I think I have a better knowledge than the bookies when it comes to football betting.

Then you are wrong.

If the bookies are so clever, why did at least one of the big three have Michael Higdon as favourite in the first goalscorer list for yesterday's drubbing of St Mirren?

Keep a record of your bets, or at the very least a Profit & Loss of your betting.[/b]

I could tell you for every day in the last 2 years how much I have won or lost from betting, poker, fruit machines, and games of chance. It's a real eye-opener and contributes to my resolution of not betting on fruit machines and games of chance any more.

I know it would be an eye-opener, that's why I would never do it. But it would be the same if I added up what I've spent supporting Falkirk, or on drink, for example, over the years.

I bet for fun, nothing else. I only bet what I can comfortably afford to lose, small stakes trying to win big. If I lose, there's always next week. It's not for the serious gambler obviously and we'd all like to make £28K a month just for watching and researching sport, but even the prospect of losing £2.5K on the Scottish First Division in one afternoon would make me ill, probably because I'm certain if I ever tried to make a living out of gambling, that kind of thing would happen on my first day and I'd be wiped out

The problem these days is that everyone has access to the internet, an odds compiler can glean as much information about a team as someone that goes to every game.

I refer you to my point about Higdon above. Some of those odds compilers are clearly lazy feckers

Excellent thread, though. I very rarely have the time to come on P&B these days, so I've only just caught up with it.

As for rules, I agree with everything the russian said at the start

Edited February 17, 2008 by choirbairn

[blue4578]

Rather than typing the same things over again, I just thought I'd bump this thread to the top (hope no one minds) as a couple of people have PM'd me asking stuff and anyone new to the forum might not have seen this useful thread, plus this other post that I made in another thread.

I do not look at the odds offered by bookmakers at all except perhaps as a final check after I had made my own odds. Often I'm putting my own odds up on Betfair when there are no bookmakers odds to compare with anyway.

Betting is a very, very simple game. It comes down to estimating the probability of something happening. I work out the probabilities that I think are correct, then put my prices up on Betfair with a little profit margin built in. I think the simplest way to look at it for those who can't get their heads around it is to go back to the example of tossing a (fair) coin. Heads and tails are both a 50% chance. If someone is offering you above Evens you should take the bet every time. Below evens you shouldn't. Think about it. If someone offered you 1/100 on Man Utd beating Arsenal in the FA Cup you'd never take that bet. If it was 100/1 however, you'd probably be re-mortgaging your house to take that bet. This is a very extreme example, but the same applies to more sensible prices. If you think Man Utd are 40% likely to win, this translates to odds of 6/4. If you can get 7/4, you should back it. If the price is 5/4, you should lay it. What prices you're willing to back or lay should depend on your perceived edge.

If you're looking at any football match, you have to assign a probability to a home win, draw and away win. These have to add up to 100%. What I then do myself is to lay all 3 outcomes with a 107-110% book approximately. Then I'll try backing all 3 outcomes to about 88%. Using this method I'll get more lay bets matched than backs, but when the backs get matched my perceived edge will be slightly greater. I pay absolutely no attention to bookmaker prices, I back my own judgement completely. Basically I am using Betfair to be a bookmaker myself.

The only time bookmaker prices come into it is if I spot a potential large difference with my prices or if I can't get matched backing a particular team higher than the bookmaker prices. I find it difficult to get bets on with most bookmakers these days using accounts in my own name, so using Betfair as much as possible takes the hassle out of betting for me to a large degree.

You don't have to use my methods, but you have to be able to identify what you think is the probability of something happening. People on this forum tend to make some key mistakes that I have noticed such as:

1. Backing only favourites. As I have mentioned before, for anyone over about 27 this goes back to having to place a minimum 5-fold on shop coupons years ago. You have to open your mind to backing outsiders. With singles accepted on everything these days and the ability to lay teams as well as back them, there are many more possibilities than previously. Personally these days I tend to oppose favourites more than backing them, because often weight of money forces prices too low. West Brom in midweek was a good example of this.

2. Backing large accumulators. If a bookmaker bets to about 110% (some bookmakers have even bigger margins), you're increasing the bookmakers profit margin expontentially for every team you add to your accumulator. For example, if you take 8 teams the bookmakers margin on this is about 114%. This means that you're getting less than half of the odds you should be, so even if you win the payout is less than half of what the fair amount would be. Clearly if you do this every week, you'll probably get the occasional win, but unless your judgement in picking winners is superb, you've virtually no chance of coming out on top over the season.

3. Not shopping around for the best prices. If you're betting for relatively small stakes, it might only make £1 or £2 difference to your potential winnings just betting at your local William Hill or other high street shop, but over a season this can really add up. It's hard enough to win taking the best prices all the time. You're really handicapping yourself by betting below the best price. A 10% profit on your total stakes over a season is regarded by most people as excellent. If you're taking your local William Hill price for every bet you place, you're probably betting at an average of 15-20% below the best possible price. This could be the difference between making a profit in the long-term and not. Whether you're betting £100,000 a time or 50p, the principles are the same.

4. Betting on leagues/sports that you know little about. Looking at the league table is always a good place to start when betting, but you always have to dig a little deeper. One example that springs to mind at the moment is Wrexham in English League Two. They have brought in around 10 players over January on free transfers and loans and their recent performances have been excellent, out-playing teams near the top of the league. Yet if you look at the league table it looks like they're a poor team. You have to be aware of how teams are evolving over time. If it was as simple as opposing all the teams with poor records at the bottom of the league, everyone would win from betting. You have to have a feeling for who is in a slightly false position and on an upward trend and perhaps who is going to struggle a bit for one reason or another. I find that the more effort I put into researching things, the luckier I seem to get. I've driven probably 500 miles this week to see a couple of English lower league games which I couldn't see anywhere else. The knowledge gained from this is invaluble when trying to predict how these teams will perform in the future. This forum is a wealth of information for the Scottish lower leagues, which bookmakers pay little attention to. People should at least be making a profit on the teams they're seeing play regularly.

You have to have an idea what you want to get out of betting. Are you happy placing your daft £5 accumulator on a Saturday that might come up once a season and give you a bit of excitement on a Saturday or a Tuesday? Or do you want to make a consistent profit over the season to win enough to pay for a holiday over the summer or a new car maybe? I would imagine that most people taking the trouble to post here want to win more from betting than they have done in the past, so you have to be open-minded and willing to learn new ways of doing things if what you're doing at the moment isn't working as well as you'd like.

I'm not claiming to know everything about betting, but I have found some methods that work for me. I'm always looking for ways to improve what I'm doing. I keep records of everything that I bet on, and always analyse things regularly. I then try to improve the things that are going well and to cut out/alter the things that are going not so well.

[BLF]

Rather than typing the same things over again, I just thought I'd bump this thread to the top (hope no one minds) as a couple of people have PM'd me asking stuff and anyone new to the forum might not have seen this useful thread, plus this other post that I made in another thread.

I was just reading that very post last night. some good advice there blue, and its much appreciated by me and the other more novice gamblers!

[Kayster]

The next 40-odd posts are from a merged thread called New Years Resolutions, which tie in quite nicely with the University.

mid-table

Well guys it's all in the title, any of you got any new year resolutions in the mind for next year in terms of gambling.

Things your going to either stop doing, or do more of..........Any funny ones are welcome too

Persoanally, Im gonna stop puttin my loose change into roulette, when Im actually in the bookies, which is rare these days, cause of work..

Going to try and start betting more on the horses again as well, as I have stopped doing it lately, but usually make some money out of it.

Anymore for anymore?

Edited April 17, 2009 by mid-table

[freedomwriter]

think i will have to give up internet games, and cash quests even tho not been in the bookies for a while and played the cash quests bar saturday. Have had some good wins on the net games but some bad loss's and more loss's, but its just the buzz of winning instant cash i guess, and one day i spun like 80p on a game and got like £140 which kinda ma me think they were good.

Also stopping betting on my own team (celtic) always seem to slip up when i need them for cash lol strange eh....

Will be looking foward to doing more bigger singles, first goalscorers (l15s) and folds.