Independence For Scotland

[H_B]

Could you possibly provide details of another grouping (that have been polled) where returning to full union within the UK was the majority option? Please post details of this poll.

Why would there be a sudden majority to return control to Westminster, given that the vote to set up the Parliament had overwhelming support?

Who has claimed there is majority support for a full return of powers to Westminster?

Here's a poll you might like though.

"A poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph by YouGov – the most in-depth analysis yet of attitudes to constitutional change – shows that only 19 per cent of Scots would support independence in a three-option referendum. Nearly three quarters backed keeping a devolved Parliament, either with its present powers or with more responsibilities."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics...nce-slumps.html

[Scary Bear]

Why would there be a sudden majority to return control to Westminster, given that the vote to set up the Parliament had overwhelming support?

Who has claimed there is majority support for a full return of powers to Westminster?

Here's a poll you might like though.

"A poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph by YouGov – the most in-depth analysis yet of attitudes to constitutional change – shows that only 19 per cent of Scots would support independence in a three-option referendum. Nearly three quarters backed keeping a devolved Parliament, either with its present powers or with more responsibilities."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics...nce-slumps.html

What were the results in a 2 option poll?

[Skipper]

Why would there be a sudden majority to return control to Westminster, given that the vote to set up the Parliament had overwhelming support?

Who has claimed there is majority support for a full return of powers to Westminster?

Here's a poll you might like though.

"A poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph by YouGov – the most in-depth analysis yet of attitudes to constitutional change – shows that only 19 per cent of Scots would support independence in a three-option referendum. Nearly three quarters backed keeping a devolved Parliament, either with its present powers or with more responsibilities."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics...nce-slumps.html

Are you suggesting that is an anti independence poll ?

When only the two options are asked most of those that chose 'more powers' ( usually the biggest grouping ) opt for independence. It can be argued that these are peolpe who generally are in favour of independence but are more willing to take the gradual approach step by step.

The last poll where it was a straight two question status quo v independence had 41% supporting independence.

Salmond will of course fight for a two question referendum and the unionists will seek three questions, but one thing is certain, the Scottish parliament will have more poweres in the next few years, whether fully independent or not.

[Scary Bear]

Trumpet.

Are you not dead yet? Suicidal Syd.

Give us a resignation speech.

[H_B]

When only the two options are asked most of those that chose 'more powers' ( usually the biggest grouping ) opt for independence.

Where does it say that?

It mentions two other polls by different organisations that the Nationalists are trumpeting.

In this poll the figure becomes only 25% in favour of Independence without the third option, which then reduces to 19% when that is added.

"The YouGov poll shows 59 per cent of Scots would vote in a referendum to retain the Scottish Parliament in a similar form, with only 25 per cent in favour of a completely separate state outside the UK – the same level as when the SNP took power. When a third option of giving Holyrood more powers is added, support for independence dropped to 19 per cent, a decline of four percentage points since last May. "

[Skipper]

Where does it say that?

It mentions two other polls by different organisations that the Nationalists are trumpeting.

In this poll the figure becomes only 25% in favour of Independence without the third option, which then reduces to 19% when that is added.

"The YouGov poll shows 59 per cent of Scots would vote in a referendum to retain the Scottish Parliament in a similar form, with only 25 per cent in favour of a completely separate state outside the UK – the same level as when the SNP took power. When a third option of giving Holyrood more powers is added, support for independence dropped to 19 per cent, a decline of four percentage points since last May. "

Here's a better one, where two questions were asked. And from a far more reputable polling company . Might also shut up some of the fuds above whe say Independence has never had a majority. Try this one, only a year or so ago.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/153...poll-shows.html

[lichtgilphead]

Why would there be a sudden majority to return control to Westminster, given that the vote to set up the Parliament had overwhelming support?

Who has claimed there is majority support for a full return of powers to Westminster?

No-one. That's because very few Scots support it. It does seem to be the preferred option of the more prominent pro-unionists on this site though.

Here's a poll you might like though.

"A poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph by YouGov – the most in-depth analysis yet of attitudes to constitutional change – shows that only 19 per cent of Scots would support independence in a three-option referendum. Nearly three quarters backed keeping a devolved Parliament, either with its present powers or with more responsibilities."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics...nce-slumps.html

Interesting. Have you noticed that the actual full results aren't quoted anywhere in the article?

It gives "independence/status quo" figures of 25% & 59%. What happened to the other 16% of voters?

It also says that support for independence drops when the "independence/more powers/status quo" question is asked, but again fails to explain where the other 5% of voters went.

It's a common trick to ignore the "don't knows" when you want to make a number look smaller. It's a pity that the Telegraph has to resort to it.

I also note that the report glosses over the fact that the largest single preference in the "3 option" poll is the "more powers" choice at 38%. Obviously, this option would be the 2nd choice of the vast majority of "immediate independence" voters.

In fact, if the Telegraph wasn't a Unionist paper & tried its hand at balanced reporting (for a change), might it not have headed the article "57% of Scots want increased powers or full independence for the Scots Parliament"

Let's be honest here. I don't care if we get "independence by a thousand cuts". Even though I'd prefer to gain immediate independence, I'm happy to go down the gradualist route.

You're welcome to continue to fight your losing battle.

[H_B]

No-one. That's because very few Scots support it. It does seem to be the preferred option of the more prominent pro-unionists on this site though.

Yes, it is certainly my preferred option. I accept that I am in the minority though, and that's democracy.

It gives "independence/status quo" figures of 25% & 59%. What happened to the other 16% of voters?

I would expect they either didn't respond or said "don't know". That is a common theme in such polls.

It's a common trick to ignore the "don't knows" when you want to make a number look smaller. It's a pity that the Telegraph has to resort to it.

Err, but they have also ignored the "don't knows" from the 59% figure. Regardless, only 1 in 4 people asked in this survey were for full independence, even with just 2 options.

I also note that the report glosses over the fact that the largest single preference in the "3 option" poll is the "more powers" choice at 38%. Obviously, this option would be the 2nd choice of the vast majority of "immediate independence" voters.

Err, but we are being told that the Nationalists would only have a 2 option referendum. Are we now to believe that is not going to be the case?

You're welcome to continue to fight your losing battle.

In what way is it a losing battle? Scotland has consistently delivered a massive Unionist majority in every general election. And will do so next time also.

[lichtgilphead]

Yes, it is certainly my preferred option. I accept that I am in the minority though, and that's democracy.

I respect your opinion. I fail to see, however, why you insist on lumping all "status quo" & "more powers" supporters into your camp.

Can I ask you for an honest response to a simple question?

Which side do you think would win a referendum on a "2 choice" question pitting "full union" (your choice) v "independence" (my choice)

I would expect they either didn't respond or said "don't know". That is a common theme in such polls.

But by ignoring the "don't know" element, they reduce the perceived support of all options. This allows people to quote figures in isolation from supposedly reputable polls. For example, Ron has quoted the supposed 19% today, yet didn't make clear that this percentage figure excluded undecided voters and SNP voters that support a "gradualist" approach to independence by increasing the Scottish Parliament's powers over time.

Err, but they have also ignored the "don't knows" from the 59% figure. Regardless, only 1 in 4 people asked in this survey were for full independence, even with just 2 options.

Can you count? As far as I can see, the options were 1) Independence 2) Status Quo 3) Don't know/wouldn't say

I make that 3 possible responses.

Err, but we are being told that the Nationalists would only have a 2 option referendum. Are we now to believe that is not going to be the case?

I may have this wrong, but didn't the SNP manifesto promise a white paper followed by a referendum (possibly in 2010). I thought the white paper would decide the referendum question to be asked?

In what way is it a losing battle? Scotland has consistently delivered a massive Unionist majority in every general election. And will do so next time also.

The fact that you now have to include all of the 3 non-independence options to acheive any sort of majority shows the unionist desperation.

Just a few years ago, we were told that there was no desire for a Scots parliament. Now you're reduced to counting people that want to extend the parliament's powers as committed pro-unionists.

The lack of support for your own preferred option shows that the halfway house at Holyrood is currently considered a (moderate? partial?) success by a majority of Scots. We both hope to change the view of this current majority. I think that the current situation is unsustainable in the long term, and am confident that my favoured viewpoint (independence) will win out over your choice (return to total Westminster rule) in the long term

[The Old Northerner]

(return to total Westminster rule)

Strangely enough, that's not an option. There has *never* been total Westminster rule over Scotland.

[H_B]

Can I ask you for an honest response to a simple question?

Which side do you think would win a referendum on a "2 choice" question pitting "full union" (your choice) v "independence" (my choice)

I have no idea but I suspect a return to full union would. I think it might be quite close though. I think you'd be surprised how many Unionists were strongly in favour of some devolved powers but would shy away completely from removing ourselves from theUK.

But by ignoring the "don't know" element, they reduce the perceived support of all options. This allows people to quote figures in isolation from supposedly reputable polls. For example, Ron has quoted the supposed 19% today, yet didn't make clear that this figure included undecided voters

But surely the 19% doesnt include undecided voters? If a referendum vote on independence is called, the dont knows will count as "no", as will the spoiled ballot papers etc. There will require to be a majority vote for. The burden of proof will be on the change to the status quo.

and SNP voters that support a "gradualist" approach to independence by increasing the Scottish Parliament's powers over time.

But that isn't a clear correlation. Many of the people who favour more devolved powers will still want to continue as part of the UK.

Can you count? As far as I can see, the options were 1) Independence 2) Status Quo 3) Don't know/wouldn't say

I make that 3 possible responses.

See above. I will repeat - only 1 person in 4 chose Independence when faced with the choice of Independence or the status quo.

6 people in 10 chose the status quo. Even assuming half the 15% "dont knows" went both ways, and werent also split 59/25, that still means 2 people in 3 want the status quo. thats pretty convincing.

The fact that you now have to include all of the 3 non-independence options to acheive any sort of majority shows the unionist desperation.

Err, but you don't.

As shown above even with just 2 options, the clear majority is in favour of the status quo. It is actually in the Nationalists interest to have a third option of more devolved powers as a halfway house.

They cannot win an Independence referendum, and they know this.

Just a few years ago, we were told that there was no desire for a Scots parliament. Now you're reduced to counting people that want to extend the parliament's powers as committed pro-unionists.

No I'm not. But they certainly aren't committed Independencists, otherwise they would have chosen the Independence option!

The lack of support for your own preferred option shows that the halfway house at Holyrood is currently considered a (moderate? partial?) success by a majority of Scots.

Correct. I have never disputed that the majority are pleased we have devolved powers.

[lichtgilphead]

Strangely enough, that's not an option. There has *never* been total Westminster rule over Scotland.

Oh God.................

Reduce the debate to semantics, why don't you.

Yes, we had the Scottish Office, the independent legal system etc.

I think it was PRETTY FUCKING OBVIOUS that I was referring to returning to the situation before the setting up of the current Scottish Assembly.

No-one else appears to have misunderstood what I was referring to.

[xbl]

I have no idea but I suspect a return to full union would. I think it might be quite close though. I think you'd be surprised how many Unionists were strongly in favour of some devolved powers but would shy away completely from removing ourselves from theUK.

In fairness, did you not criticise others for putting up arguments like that without providing any basis for them?

[H_B]

In fairness, did you not criticise others for putting up arguments like that without providing any basis for them?

It's not an argument.

It's an answer to a question I was asked to give my opinion on.

[xbl]

It's not an argument.

It's an answer to a question I was asked to give my opinion on.

Fair enough, but people have been criticised on here for doing exactly that! Oddly enough, the pedants seem to be most dominant in the unionist camp. Do you not think you are giving this 19% too much credibility though? There have been a number of polls, all showing support for independence much, much higher.

Assuming that a fair number of people will not bother their arses to vote, and it could be argued that the pro independence camp will be a bit more energised to vote, one suspects that an independence referendum right now might be tighter than most people thinks. And thats now. In a couple years, support for independence may well have risen substantially, if politicians keep on this path.

Pre election, there was a "status quo" camp, a "more power" camp, and a "referendum" camp. Immediately after the election, the status quo lot were kicked into touch, and politicians moved into the more powers camp. The Calman commision was announced, after the other parties refused to take part in the national conversation (due to it involving a referendum), with the specific aim to look at more powers, and NOT to consider a referendum.

Fast forward a bit, and the Calman commision has just been made redundant by its primary initiator jumping camp and joining the referendum lot. So now, this referendum (that several posters on here said would never happen) looks to be a certainty. All that in a single year.

Imagine what it could be like by 2010!

[lichtgilphead]

I have no idea but I suspect a return to full union would. I think it might be quite close though. I think you'd be surprised how many Unionists were strongly in favour of some devolved powers but would shy away completely from removing ourselves from theUK.

We'll obviously have to disagree on this point as (IMO) it is very unlikely that "full union" will ever command popular support again. As other posters have commented, Pandora's box has been opened

If a referendum vote on independence is called, the dont knows will count as "no", as will the spoiled ballot papers etc.

More desperation. Pull the 1979 trick again & include the dead as "No" votes. Is this the depths that you are willing to descend to to support the union?

But that isn't a clear correlation. Many of the people who favour more devolved powers will still want to continue as part of the UK.

You wish to totally ignore the preferences of anyone that wishes to take a gradualist approach to independence?

If (for instance) I supported the continuation of paying a licence fee to the BBC to provide a UK wide network, but wanted full independence in all other matters, you would count my preference as being a vote for union?

6 people in 10 chose the status quo. Even assuming half the 15% "dont knows" went both ways, and werent also split 59/25, that still means 2 people in 3 want the status quo. thats pretty convincing.

In one poll. In one poll in the extremely pro-unionist Daily Telegraph. In one poll in the extremely pro-unionist Daily Telegraph which has been spun to put the best possible light on any non-independence vote.

Do you see where I'm coming from here?

They cannot win an Independence referendum, and they know this.

That's why they plan to have one in 2010? As Wendy said, "Bring it on"

But they certainly aren't committed Independencists, otherwise they would have chosen the Independence option!

This simplistic view ignores the fact that it is possible to ask multi-option questions. May I suggest that "first past the post" will often produce a markedly different result from "rank choices 1-4 in order"?

[The Old Northerner]

Oh God.................

Reduce the debate to semantics, why don't you.

Yes, we had the Scottish Office, the independent legal system etc.

I think it was PRETTY FUCKING OBVIOUS that I was referring to returning to the situation before the setting up of the current Scottish Assembly.

No-one else appears to have misunderstood what I was referring to.

I don't think it's PRETTY FUCKING OBVIOUS at all. Scotland's previous autonomy gets no airing at all - from either Unionist or Nationalist camps. Hopefully it will get people to FUCKING WELL KNOW WHAT THEY ARE ARGUING OVER

[The Old Northerner]

In one poll. In one poll in the extremely pro-unionist Daily Telegraph. In one poll in the extremely pro-unionist Daily Telegraph which has been spun to put the best possible light on any non-independence vote.

A poll organised by YouGov. Who have also produced (two-question) polls that the SNP lap up. Spin perhaps?

[xbl]

A poll organised by YouGov. Who have also produced (two-question) polls that the SNP lap up. Spin perhaps?

No!!!

But surely the 19% doesnt include undecided voters? If a referendum vote on independence is called, the dont knows will count as "no", as will the spoiled ballot papers etc. There will require to be a majority vote for. The burden of proof will be on the change to the status quo.

Missed that gem...so anyone that doesnt vote, for whatever reason, is counted as a no? Why not the other way? After all, the SNP will be the party in power, so they can set the terms on the referendum. Lets count all non votes as a yes. Still want a referendum under those circumstances?

[lichtgilphead]

I don't think it's PRETTY FUCKING OBVIOUS at all. Scotland's previous autonomy gets no airing at all - from either Unionist or Nationalist camps. Hopefully it will get people to FUCKING WELL KNOW WHAT THEY ARE ARGUING OVER

As I said, you appear to be the only person to have misunderstood my point.

Would you like me to refer (in future) to "rule by whichever monkey the Tories or Labour had running the Scottish Office" rather than "rule by Westminster"