LongTimeLurker

While bearing in mind these words of wisdom from the Ukrainian front line: What would Russia gain by blowing up their own gas pipelines under the Baltic so they have to send most of their gas to the EU through Ukraine and/or Poland or flare it off when they always had the ability to turn off the tap? Alternative pipelines to China can't be built for another 5 years minimum and it was far from impossible that the Germans and French would cave in to some of their demands this winter. Now if they try Warsaw and Kiev can simply turn it off and tell them to grow a pair. Maybe Poland did it given they are sure they are next in line if Ukraine loses and were always bitterly opposed to Nordstream to the extent that a German U-turn on Nordstream could now be viewed as an existential threat to their national security that justifies taking some direct action France vs the Rainbow Warrior style.

Lyman very close to losing all its supply routes if this is accurate: The info is coming from Russian sources. Presumably Vlad insisted they had to stand and fight. The parallels with Adolf in the latter stages of WWII are obvious.

A Polish MEP seems to think it was the Americans: Greta must be going completely cherry menthol.

Raises interesting questions about this interview with Joe Biden: Not convinced by the spin in this tweet personally (from a Syrian who is very pro-Assad and Russia) but would it be in the long term interests of the Russians to do this? Not convinced on that either. Ukrainians with scuba gear and explosives? The truth is out there...

That's coming from pro-Russian sources: What complicates things for the Russians now is how a series of small dams on the Zherbets river severely limits the number of viable supply lines to Lyman: further north the Ukrainians are reported to have liberated Borova close to a bridge over the Oskil river that may or may not still be useable to some extent:

Igor's no happy: always find it amusing how a right wing Russian nationalist maniac is telling Russian people the unvarnished truth of what is actually going on complete with phrases like "cretinism" to describe Russian military strategy.

The way it was back in the day:

That opens up another can of worms. Owned by a former chairman called Alan Mackin (played for Motherwell and Falkirk) who obtained the deeds under dubious circumstances after running the club into the ground and has not subsequently been able to sell or develop the land because the council have blocked any change in zoning. Think he has tried to persuade the Shire to work with him on a possible return in fairly recent times but has been told to GTF in no uncertain terms every time he has made an appearance at a Shire game. Hopefully Shire fans do make an appearance soon but no posts for three weeks maybe tells its own story unfortunately.

Short answer is probably yes obviously, but think there's an issue with athletics taking priority on fixture dates that would need to be available with the Grangemouth stadium and Syngenta were not able to use Little Kerse in an EoS context when they tried to apply using that as their ground so that might be difficult to do as well.

The sugar daddy from Firs Street stopped providing money by the looks of things. Take that temporary cash injection away and you have a poorly supported club with no ground of their own (cue some drivel from Linlithgow about Newtown Park) renting a stadium that is way too big for them in the absence of SPFL prize money. Having said that think it's still surprising that they are in the second possible relegation slot (if Brechin City replace a Club 42 relegated to the LL) about ten games in when Gretna and Edinburgh Uni are still involved at this level. If/when ES get relegated to the EoS in the years ahead it will be interesting to see what their natural level turns out to be given the way Camelon who do have a ground of their own and a comparable size of support are struggling these days.

The Ukrainians appear to finally be making their move towards northern Luhansk oblast where the Russians apparently don't have effective defensive lines set up so definitely some evidence pointing to the latter:

Don't know about Taiwan but having lived and worked in Japan for many years in the past I know the word there is that although they are not a nuclear power they have made sure that they could quickly (i.e. months rather than years) move to being one if they ever felt they needed to meaning they effectively are in all but name. Suspect Taiwan would be similar.

The timing is right as there is about to be a big party congress apparently where he will push to further consolidate power. The reason this has some mileage is that after the big flap over Taiwan recently it is somewhat credible that the people around him might have decided he is too much of a loose cannon and decided to replace him in a palace coup Nikita Khrushchev style. His handling of COVID is also unlikely to be universally loved but beyond that there is no hard evidence and there may be another explanation for all the cancelled flights.

Elsewhere:

The SJC games that are not mentioned on the EoS website this week: Carnoustie Panmure 4-2 West Calder Livingston Utd 4-1 Scone Thistle

Seems to be the Beijing area that most of the chat is about. We'll find out soon enough if this amounts to anything.

Maybe but something big appears to be happening:

Lots of talk on twitter about a coup in China by the PLA. Not clear if that's in any way real or if it would be good or bad for Vlad if it is (suspect the latter ) this is the alleged state of affairs where Lyman is concerned.

No doubt hoping to emulate what is unfolding in Iran. Difference though is that Iranians didn't need to be given a time to start protesting. They did it spontaneously. Chechen women were able to do that sort of thing a few days back and already got the mobilisation cancelled in their republic:

How would Dunterlie Park be a problem? Cover for 100 check, properly enclosed check, dressing rooms with controlled access to the pitch check. Only issue I can see might be whether they can squeeze in floodlight pylons in on both sides of the ground but if they had to they could probably move the pitch over a bit to the side with the enclosure.

Mobilised Russian reservists already fighting:

This guy's takes are maybe more thought provoking than anything else because he is prone to hyperbole and telling an American audience what they want to hear to keep them coming back but always an interesting listen:

Russian sources apparently said to be reporting significant Ukrainian advances in the countryside north of Lyman and also further north to the east of the Oskil river in Kharkiv oblast: It tended to be these Russians sources that provided news on Ukrainian advances during the recent big advance west of the Oskil river.

20 years ago people like Tim Pat Coogan were convinced the end of NI was just around the corner for the turgid tribal headcount reasons that underpin this thread. This time Roman Catholic numbers went from 45.1% to 45.7%. Hardly the stuff of nightmares for DUP and TUV politicians given the significant numbers of Polish and Portuguese people who arrived pre-Brexit form part of that trend. The long since faded baby boom that led to all the hype back in the day gets balanced out by heavier out migration by people from a Irish Roman Catholic background. There might be a pro-UI majority eventually but intellectual persuasion will have to be involved. Birthrates were supposed to have long since done the job by now but haven't.